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Wednesday, 04 March 2015 - Market Commentary
Daily currency news provided by UsForex

: EUR/USD is weaker having traded to the top of its recent range and come near the top of the long term down trend dating from its June 2011 high up at 1.48 . We expect this to be a heavy resistance zone and we may see some choppy moves around this 1.3250 – 1.3350 range. Relative interest rates have provided for recent strength in EUR, and are likely to provide for further support ahead of next week’s FOMC given the focus on the Fed’s forward guidance thresholds. The ECB meeting two days later on August 1st will be a key focus as market participants look to Draghi for his reaction to both the improving outlook for Europe (PMI’s) and the implications of the recent strengthening in Euro.
We expect a range today of 1.3240 to 1.3290
Charts : EUR/USD USD/EUR
: GBP/USD is weaker falling to near term support around 1.5370 – The pair has been trading in a narrow range all week, and we should see this move develop and give new direction coming into next week’s more data heavy calendar which will include on Thursday, the UK MPC minutes and interest rate decision, and on Friday the US non-farm payrolls numbers.
We expect a range today of 1.5330 to 1.5400
Charts : GBP/USD USD/GBP
: The main event for the North American trading day is the Bank of Canada Rate Statement at 10:00 AM which the market now expects to remain at 0.75%. This is on the back of Governor Poloz’s communication last week that the shocking rate cut in January was an “insurance move” and now leaves the Bank with extra breathing room, while clarifying that the $60 pbl oil assumption is based on Brent Crude instead of WTI. The big question is how confident the market is to have priced in an unchanged announcement on Poloz’s word. I anticipate the initial reaction will see the Loonie gain but it should be short lived and bring us back to familiar ranges.K.W.
We expect a range today of 1.2430 to 1.2520
Charts : USD/CAD CAD/USD
: USD/JPY has seen significant weakness today, falling back below the 100 level. The Yen strength was caused by market perception of a “stronger” than expected CPI number, coming in at 0.2% vs 0.1% expected and indicating an increase of inflation in line with the BOJ policies. However, looking at the various components which make up this number we can see that the core drivers of inflation have come from higher energy prices and higher food costs – indicating “bad” cost push inflation, instead of “good” demand pull inflation (via increasing wages). This is not a good sign for the long term health of Japanese companies or the economy.
We expect a range today of 98.00 to 98.60
Charts : USD/JPY JPY/USD
The Greenback touched fresh highs when measured against a basket of currencies Wednesday as the dollar index reached levels not seen since September 2003. The USD found support in a strong ADP non-farm employment report leading analysts to believe another NFP print above 200K will be seen Friday. A strong Labour market is crucial for US dollar strength after a string of softer than anticipated macroeconomic indicators throughout February cooled expectations surrounding US growth prospects. A print below 235K in the monthly Non-Farm Payroll report may dampen the Greenback rally as investors are forced to reassess their IR expectations and extend assumptions on the timing of a Central Bank rate adjustment.
In other news the Euro edged lower breaking key technical support levels at 1.11 and opens this morning at 1.1071. Investors looked to shorten positions and reduce their holdings of the 19 nation shared unit in the lead up to the ECB‘s monthly press conference. The European Central Bank is set to announce specific plans for its 1.1 trillion Euro bond buying program an announcement that highlights the dividing and diverging gulf between the US Federal reserve and its European counterparts.
Attentions today will be squarely focused on the ECB as the headline event governing direction through trade on Thursday.
Data releases:
Retail Sales, Trade Balance and RBA Deputy Governor Lowe Speaks
No Data
Charts : USD/EUR EUR/USD USD/JPY

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You may well think that you are being ripped off, but it is not always the case. In simple terms what you see on the news or in the paper or on yahoo finance is the Middle Rate or mid-rate. Some people want to buy a currency and some people want to sell a currency and there is a gap (or margin) between the price at which you buy and the price at which you sell. ⇒ read article

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