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Friday, 30 January 2015 - Market Commentary
Daily currency news provided by UsForex

: EUR/USD is weaker having traded to the top of its recent range and come near the top of the long term down trend dating from its June 2011 high up at 1.48 . We expect this to be a heavy resistance zone and we may see some choppy moves around this 1.3250 – 1.3350 range. Relative interest rates have provided for recent strength in EUR, and are likely to provide for further support ahead of next week’s FOMC given the focus on the Fed’s forward guidance thresholds. The ECB meeting two days later on August 1st will be a key focus as market participants look to Draghi for his reaction to both the improving outlook for Europe (PMI’s) and the implications of the recent strengthening in Euro.
We expect a range today of 1.3240 to 1.3290
Charts : EUR/USD USD/EUR
: GBP/USD is weaker falling to near term support around 1.5370 – The pair has been trading in a narrow range all week, and we should see this move develop and give new direction coming into next week’s more data heavy calendar which will include on Thursday, the UK MPC minutes and interest rate decision, and on Friday the US non-farm payrolls numbers.
We expect a range today of 1.5330 to 1.5400
Charts : GBP/USD USD/GBP
: Canadian GDP m/m were a miss as well and -0.2% and the USDCAD rate has now moved passed the major resistance level of 1.2689 and currently trades at 1.2789 a full penny higher. Resistance levels are now 1.2853, 1.2914, and 1.3037 and support levels are sighted at 1.2728, 1.2657, and 1.2470 these ranges are high based on the extreme move in the currency pair.
We expect a range today of 1.2610 to 1.2853
Charts : USD/CAD CAD/USD
: USD/JPY has seen significant weakness today, falling back below the 100 level. The Yen strength was caused by market perception of a “stronger” than expected CPI number, coming in at 0.2% vs 0.1% expected and indicating an increase of inflation in line with the BOJ policies. However, looking at the various components which make up this number we can see that the core drivers of inflation have come from higher energy prices and higher food costs – indicating “bad” cost push inflation, instead of “good” demand pull inflation (via increasing wages). This is not a good sign for the long term health of Japanese companies or the economy.
We expect a range today of 98.00 to 98.60
Charts : USD/JPY JPY/USD
The Euro was one of the few currencies which managed to hold its ground against the Greenback on Thursday despite German consumer price inflation turning negative. German CPI printed at -1 per cent just 7 days after the European Central bank released information of a 60 Billion Euro a month government bond program. It was the US dollar however which drew the spotlight once more as unemployment claims showed a substantially fewer amount of people applying for jobless benefits. The Greenback strengthened heavily across the board however the Euro managed to hold its ground opening this morning 1.1311. The US unemployment claims are sitting at levels not seen in over 14 years and these strong numbers lend to the idea of an interest rate increase occurring in the earlier months of the year. Heading into the weekend eyes will focus on the European CPI flash estimate while in US trade on GDP numbers.
Data releases: 
PPI q/q, Private Sector Credit m/m
Building Consents m/m, Visitor Arrivals m/m
Household Spending y/y, Tokyo Core CPI y/y, National Core CPI y/y, Unemployment rate, Prelim Industrial Production m/m, Housing Starts y/y
GfK Consumer Confidence, Net Lending to Individuals m/m, M4 Money Supply m/m, Mortgage Approvals
Charts : USD/EUR EUR/USD USD/JPY

BER Notebook - FX Market Research & Currency News/Views from our Partners See more >>

Agility Forex
Well, what a week! I can’t remember seeing such sustained volatility in the markets for a long time. The over-riding theme remains the almighty dollar, currently at 6 year highs against the Loonie and 11 year highs against the Euro. Although everyone knew it was coming the sheer size of yesterday’s ECB QE announcement caused… Continue reading
Posted on 23 January 2015 | 8:26 pm
OzForex Research
Financial markets over the past year have been defined by diverging monetary policy settings with shifting rate expectations changing the dynamic of broader forex markets. Having initially traded up above the 94 US Cents mark as recently as September the Australian dollar has now lost more than 15 percent over the past four months a… Continue reading
Posted on 22 January 2015 | 7:06 pm
Agility Forex
Mario Draghi did not disappoint today when the ECB announced a QE programme to buy 60 Billion Euro in assets per month until September 2016 . The asset purchases will cover both private and public sector bonds and will begin in March 2015. European focus will now turn to the Greek election on Sunday. After… Continue reading
Posted on 21 January 2015 | 8:49 pm
OzForex Research
The Swiss National Bank gave us volatility on a historic scale last week as it rocked markets by abandoning the nearly three-year-old policy of supporting the value of the Swiss franc relative to the euro at 1.20. The Swiss franc consequently appreciated sharply across the board, distorting flows and liquidity market-wide. While this took the… Continue reading
Posted on 19 January 2015 | 4:09 pm
Agility Forex
Throughout my years on Wall Street and to this day, one question has always bothered me. I have never got a good explanation as to why the price of crude oil and the strength of the USD move in negative correlation. I’ve heard many different arguments but none are foolproof. I’ve even read that there… Continue reading
Posted on 12 January 2015 | 6:24 am

Foreign Real Estate Investing Do's and Don'ts

Bloomberg Television interview with Michael Ward, CEO, North America and Europe for USForex on getting the Best Exchange Rates when sending money abroad from the US plus his thoughts on what to look for when Buying Property Abroad and which global cities are popular right now. ⇒ watch video

Why is it that when I go into a currency vendor to send money I never get the rate on the news?

You may well think that you are being ripped off, but it is not always the case. In simple terms what you see on the news or in the paper or on yahoo finance is the Middle Rate or mid-rate. Some people want to buy a currency and some people want to sell a currency and there is a gap (or margin) between the price at which you buy and the price at which you sell. ⇒ read article

What makes sending money internationally so expensive?

There are a number of cost components to making and receiving international payments, most of which are far from transparent to customers: Currency fees, Transit fees, Correspondent bank fees etc ⇒ read article

BestExchangeRates in the PressSMH.com.au Money

“A check with the foreign-exchange comparison website bestexchangerates.net shows a big variation in the exchange rates available when sending money and buying cash.” SMH.com.au ⇒ read article

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