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USD 1.00 = EUR Inter-Bank Mid-Market Rate    Invert Rate
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Wednesday, 30 July 2014 - Market Commentary
Daily currency news provided by UsForex

: EUR/USD is weaker having traded to the top of its recent range and come near the top of the long term down trend dating from its June 2011 high up at 1.48 . We expect this to be a heavy resistance zone and we may see some choppy moves around this 1.3250 – 1.3350 range. Relative interest rates have provided for recent strength in EUR, and are likely to provide for further support ahead of next week’s FOMC given the focus on the Fed’s forward guidance thresholds. The ECB meeting two days later on August 1st will be a key focus as market participants look to Draghi for his reaction to both the improving outlook for Europe (PMI’s) and the implications of the recent strengthening in Euro.
We expect a range today of 1.3240 to 1.3290
: GBP/USD is weaker falling to near term support around 1.5370 – The pair has been trading in a narrow range all week, and we should see this move develop and give new direction coming into next week’s more data heavy calendar which will include on Thursday, the UK MPC minutes and interest rate decision, and on Friday the US non-farm payrolls numbers.
We expect a range today of 1.5330 to 1.5400
: The USD has continued to be favoured overnight as market participants anticipate a change in tone from the FOMC today as well as the continued rising geopolitical tensions. US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change came in below expectations of 234K at 218K, while Q2 GDP was much better than the anticipated 3.1% at 4.0%. The USD has gained further against all the G10, picking up roughly 30 bps against all the majors. The optimism surrounding this number will be contained this morning as we await the FOMC, from there we should continue to see the Greenback favoured as this positive reading will be difficult to discount.
We expect a range today of 1.0830 to 1.0900
: USD/JPY has seen significant weakness today, falling back below the 100 level. The Yen strength was caused by market perception of a “stronger” than expected CPI number, coming in at 0.2% vs 0.1% expected and indicating an increase of inflation in line with the BOJ policies. However, looking at the various components which make up this number we can see that the core drivers of inflation have come from higher energy prices and higher food costs – indicating “bad” cost push inflation, instead of “good” demand pull inflation (via increasing wages). This is not a good sign for the long term health of Japanese companies or the economy.
We expect a range today of 98.00 to 98.60
The Dollar’s rise continues as advanced GDP figures showed the US economy grew four percent in the second quarter to June. Comfortably above average forecasts the strong reading surprised investors triggering a Greenback rally with the world’s base currency advancing against all but a few major peers. Supported by a sturdy preliminary non-farm payroll report that suggests the economy will add some 200,000+ jobs when official number hit the docket Friday the string of positive data underpins the strength of economic recovery. The rally was however pared by a dovish Federal Open Market Committee Statement wherein Fed officials cited concerns over slack in the labour market while reiterating that interest rates will remain unchanged for a “considerable time”. In other news the Euro broke below 1.3400 as German inflation data disappointed investors compounding fears Europe’s largest economy is stagnating. The 18 nation bloc’s unit traded to an intraday low of 1.3366 and opens this morning under the guise of further downward pressure as investor focus is directed to Core CPI this evening ahead of US non-farm payroll numbers Friday. Soft European inflation and a strong US jobs report could see the EUR/USD move close to a weekly close near 1.3200.
Data releases
Building Approvals, Import Prices and Private Sector Credit
NZD: No Data
Average Cash Earnings and Housing starts
GBP: Nationwide HPI m/m

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