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Monday, 30 March 2015 - Market Commentary
Daily currency news provided by UsForex

: EUR/USD is weaker having traded to the top of its recent range and come near the top of the long term down trend dating from its June 2011 high up at 1.48 . We expect this to be a heavy resistance zone and we may see some choppy moves around this 1.3250 – 1.3350 range. Relative interest rates have provided for recent strength in EUR, and are likely to provide for further support ahead of next week’s FOMC given the focus on the Fed’s forward guidance thresholds. The ECB meeting two days later on August 1st will be a key focus as market participants look to Draghi for his reaction to both the improving outlook for Europe (PMI’s) and the implications of the recent strengthening in Euro.
We expect a range today of 1.3240 to 1.3290
Charts : EUR/USD USD/EUR
: GBP/USD is weaker falling to near term support around 1.5370 – The pair has been trading in a narrow range all week, and we should see this move develop and give new direction coming into next week’s more data heavy calendar which will include on Thursday, the UK MPC minutes and interest rate decision, and on Friday the US non-farm payrolls numbers.
We expect a range today of 1.5330 to 1.5400
Charts : GBP/USD USD/GBP
: The Canadian Dollar is weak, as the USD/CAD gained 70 bps from last week’s close. All eyes are on oil prices as geopolitical risks take the spotlight. Oil is down over 1% as there appears to be progress towards an Iranian nuclear deal, the Yemen conflict continues to escalate, and we await the final count on Nigerian elections held over the weekend. The focus for North America this week will be quarter end flows and US Employment data coming out on Friday. The focus of domestic data will be Canadian GDP expected to reduce slightly from 0.3% to 0.2%. The loonie is struggling to hold its recent position against the USD as oil prices have dropped 1% and look to continue to see downward pressure through this week. Watch for USDCAD to trade in a range of 1.2580 to 1.2720 on the week. The USD/CAD is currently trading at 1.2667.
We expect a range today of 1.2580 to 1.2660
Charts : USD/CAD CAD/USD
: USD/JPY has seen significant weakness today, falling back below the 100 level. The Yen strength was caused by market perception of a “stronger” than expected CPI number, coming in at 0.2% vs 0.1% expected and indicating an increase of inflation in line with the BOJ policies. However, looking at the various components which make up this number we can see that the core drivers of inflation have come from higher energy prices and higher food costs – indicating “bad” cost push inflation, instead of “good” demand pull inflation (via increasing wages). This is not a good sign for the long term health of Japanese companies or the economy.
We expect a range today of 98.00 to 98.60
Charts : USD/JPY JPY/USD
The Greenback recouped losses suffered into last weeks close as the Euro sagged across the board amidst concerns Greece will fail to meet the reform measures required to secure additional aid. While spokespersons in Athens remain upbeat, commentary for Eurozone creditors (in particular Germany) are somewhat contradictory calling for a more detailed list of reforms if they are to extend the 240 Billion Euro aid package in 3 weeks’ time.  Greece’s failure to meet the troika’s demands thus far has dampened market optimism throughout a period where macroeconomic data sets appear to be turning. Stronger than anticipated German and Spanish CPI supported expectations of an upbeat Eurozone inflation read as CPI estimates are released today ahead of manufacturing numbers on Wednesday. The disparity in expected monetary policy action drove direction through trade on Monday and continues to weigh heavily on any meaningful Euro relief rally. While Fed action and market expectations have realigned to some degree investors continue to support the world’s base currency on the assumption the U.S Central Bank will adjust rates at some point into the end of the year. Attentions turn to Consumer Confidence today ahead of Non-Farm Payrolls Friday.
Data releases
HIA New Home Sales m/m and Private Sector Credit
NZD: ANZ Business Confidence
Average Cash Earnings and Housing Starts
GBP: Current Account Balance, Final GDP q/q and Revised Business Investment q/q
Charts : USD/EUR EUR/USD USD/JPY

BER Notebook - FX Market Research & Currency News/Views from our Partners See more >>

Agility Forex
USDCAD climbed steadily higher overnight and during the early North American session. Falling oil prices are to blame. WTI dipped to $47.70 with expectations that an Iranian nuclear deal could lead to another million barrels per day of crude hitting the market as sanctions get removed. Anticipation of better than expected US data this week,… Continue reading
Posted on 30 March 2015 | 7:19 pm
OzForex Research
Major Currency Pair Movements Last Week: EUR/USD - Extended its previous week’s gains. USD/JPY - Continued selling off. GBP/USD - Declined last week. AUD/USD - Lost a fraction. USD/CAD - Gained a fraction. NZD/USD - Showed little change. Continue reading
Posted on 29 March 2015 | 9:13 pm
Agility Forex
The US dollar barely budged on the Q4 GDP report (2.2%) and is ending the week on a down note having lost ground across the G-10 spectrum. The debate is still raging as to whether the current bout of US dollar weakness is merely a correction of the massive oversold positioning or perhaps the start… Continue reading
Posted on 27 March 2015 | 6:50 pm
OzForex Research
Major Currency Movements Last Week: EUR/USD Reversed direction. USD/JPY Declined. GBP/USD Reversed direction. AUD/USD Reversed direction. USD/CAD Lost ground. NZD/USD Gained sharply. Continue reading
Posted on 23 March 2015 | 8:25 pm
Agility Forex
America’s influence is waning in the world, militarily, economically, and culturally. The global financial structure which has been in place for decades is unraveling and it will not end well for the United States’ currency and economy. This change is being driven by a desire of many nations with totalitarian capitalism to rid themselves of… Continue reading
Posted on 23 March 2015 | 8:19 pm

Foreign Real Estate Investing Do's and Don'ts

Bloomberg Television interview with Michael Ward, CEO, North America and Europe for USForex on getting the Best Exchange Rates when sending money abroad from the US plus his thoughts on what to look for when Buying Property Abroad and which global cities are popular right now. ⇒ watch video

Why is it that when I go into a currency vendor to send money I never get the rate on the news?

You may well think that you are being ripped off, but it is not always the case. In simple terms what you see on the news or in the paper or on yahoo finance is the Middle Rate or mid-rate. Some people want to buy a currency and some people want to sell a currency and there is a gap (or margin) between the price at which you buy and the price at which you sell. ⇒ read article

What makes sending money internationally so expensive?

There are a number of cost components to making and receiving international payments, most of which are far from transparent to customers: Currency fees, Transit fees, Correspondent bank fees etc ⇒ read article

BestExchangeRates in the PressSMH.com.au Money

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