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Thursday, 24 July 2014 - Market Commentary
Daily currency news provided by UsForex

: EUR/USD is weaker having traded to the top of its recent range and come near the top of the long term down trend dating from its June 2011 high up at 1.48 . We expect this to be a heavy resistance zone and we may see some choppy moves around this 1.3250 – 1.3350 range. Relative interest rates have provided for recent strength in EUR, and are likely to provide for further support ahead of next week’s FOMC given the focus on the Fed’s forward guidance thresholds. The ECB meeting two days later on August 1st will be a key focus as market participants look to Draghi for his reaction to both the improving outlook for Europe (PMI’s) and the implications of the recent strengthening in Euro.
We expect a range today of 1.3240 to 1.3290
Charts : EUR/USD USD/EUR
: GBP/USD is weaker falling to near term support around 1.5370 – The pair has been trading in a narrow range all week, and we should see this move develop and give new direction coming into next week’s more data heavy calendar which will include on Thursday, the UK MPC minutes and interest rate decision, and on Friday the US non-farm payrolls numbers.
We expect a range today of 1.5330 to 1.5400
Charts : GBP/USD USD/GBP
: The Loonie continues to hover in a very narrow trading range (22 bps) as there appears to be very little appetite to challenge the current range of 1.0710 to 1.0780. With no Canadian data the rest of the week we will continue to be range bound unless the larger FX themes carry through to USDCAD.
We expect a range today of 1.0720 to 1.0760
Charts : USD/CAD CAD/USD
: USD/JPY has seen significant weakness today, falling back below the 100 level. The Yen strength was caused by market perception of a “stronger” than expected CPI number, coming in at 0.2% vs 0.1% expected and indicating an increase of inflation in line with the BOJ policies. However, looking at the various components which make up this number we can see that the core drivers of inflation have come from higher energy prices and higher food costs – indicating “bad” cost push inflation, instead of “good” demand pull inflation (via increasing wages). This is not a good sign for the long term health of Japanese companies or the economy.
We expect a range today of 98.00 to 98.60
Charts : USD/JPY JPY/USD
The Euro opens at the same levels as Wednesday this morning at 1.3461 managing to claw back from the eight month low against the US dollar. Consumer confidence was released as weaker than expected however the market shrugged the soft reading aside. Investors around the globe are still carefully watching geopolitical events as tensions in the Ukraine and Russia continue. The US has placed further sanctions on Russia which can place strain on the European currency. Tonight investors watch as a myriad of important data is to be released from the Eurozone and the US, which is sure to push geopolitical events to the side as economic print is to be once again brought back into the spotlight for market movement. 
Data releases:
No Data
Official Cash Rate, RBNZ Rate Statement, Trade Balance
Trade Balance, Flash Manufacturing PMI
Retail Sales m/m
Charts : USD/EUR EUR/USD USD/JPY

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