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Friday, 12 September 2014 - Market Commentary
Daily currency news provided by UsForex

: EUR/USD is weaker having traded to the top of its recent range and come near the top of the long term down trend dating from its June 2011 high up at 1.48 . We expect this to be a heavy resistance zone and we may see some choppy moves around this 1.3250 – 1.3350 range. Relative interest rates have provided for recent strength in EUR, and are likely to provide for further support ahead of next week’s FOMC given the focus on the Fed’s forward guidance thresholds. The ECB meeting two days later on August 1st will be a key focus as market participants look to Draghi for his reaction to both the improving outlook for Europe (PMI’s) and the implications of the recent strengthening in Euro.
We expect a range today of 1.3240 to 1.3290
Charts : EUR/USD USD/EUR
: GBP/USD is weaker falling to near term support around 1.5370 – The pair has been trading in a narrow range all week, and we should see this move develop and give new direction coming into next week’s more data heavy calendar which will include on Thursday, the UK MPC minutes and interest rate decision, and on Friday the US non-farm payrolls numbers.
We expect a range today of 1.5330 to 1.5400
Charts : GBP/USD USD/GBP
: The Loonie along with the commodity based currencies continued to lose ground to the USD, touching 1.1076 overnight. US Retail Sales beat expectations which adds fuel to the fire driving the USD. The Core number held steady at 0.3% versus expectations of a drop to 0.2% while the headline was much more impressive jumping from 0.3% to 0.6%. Initial reaction has been kneejerk in nature with a drive up to 1.1075 and a quick retracement to 1.1055. Still to come this morning is Prelim University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations at 9:55. Yesterday’s close comfortably above 1.10 is significant and if we close here for the week the pair a new upper end of the current range will have been established.
We expect a range today of 1.1010 to 1.1080
Charts : USD/CAD CAD/USD
: USD/JPY has seen significant weakness today, falling back below the 100 level. The Yen strength was caused by market perception of a “stronger” than expected CPI number, coming in at 0.2% vs 0.1% expected and indicating an increase of inflation in line with the BOJ policies. However, looking at the various components which make up this number we can see that the core drivers of inflation have come from higher energy prices and higher food costs – indicating “bad” cost push inflation, instead of “good” demand pull inflation (via increasing wages). This is not a good sign for the long term health of Japanese companies or the economy.
We expect a range today of 98.00 to 98.60
Charts : USD/JPY JPY/USD
In what was a remarkable week for broader currency markets the US Dollar Index posted its ninth consecutive week of gains on Friday as the Greenback rose to a six year high against the Japanese Yen. Amid renewed speculation that the US Federal Reserve will adopt more hawkish language when they meet later this week, the broader trigger for this rapid move back in to US dollar dominated assets highlights just how dovish investors views were surrounding the timing of higher US yields. With markets likely to remain jittery leading up to the key policy meeting, the scope of tighter monetary controls cannot be underestimated given the low volatility and lack of participation excessive stimulus has caused. On the outlook this evening investors will be looking towards US Industrial production figures for short-term direction. Meanwhile this morning the Euro opens stronger against the greenback at 1.2976 whilst the Yen is weaker at 107.35
New Motor Vehicle Sales
NZD: No data today
JPY: Bank Holiday
EUR: Trade Balance
USD: Industrial Production
Charts : USD/EUR EUR/USD USD/JPY

Foreign Real Estate Investing Do's and Don'ts

Bloomberg Television interview with Michael Ward, CEO, North America and Europe for USForex on getting the Best Exchange Rates when sending money abroad from the US plus his thoughts on what to look for when Buying Property Abroad and which global cities are popular right now. ⇒ watch video

Why is it that when I go into a currency vendor to send money I never get the rate on the news?

You may well think that you are being ripped off, but it is not always the case. In simple terms what you see on the news or in the paper or on yahoo finance is the Middle Rate or mid-rate. Some people want to buy a currency and some people want to sell a currency and there is a gap (or margin) between the price at which you buy and the price at which you sell. ⇒ read article

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There are a number of cost components to making and receiving international payments, most of which are far from transparent to customers: Currency fees, Transit fees, Correspondent bank fees etc ⇒ read article

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