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Thursday, 24 April 2014 - Market Commentary
Daily currency news provided by UkForex

: The MPC minutes showed yesterday that the Bank of England had voted to keep rates and QE unchanged earlier in the month. It didn’t’ come as a surprise. GBP/USD pushed higher away from 1.68, a reaction to the upgrade to Q1 2014 growth to 1.0% by the central bank (and to the Q2 number). There were however some concerns on the board for the state of the UK current account deficit which remains at 5.5% of GDP. This in turn stifled gains in GBP/USD whilst there were also some worries among members for a softer inflation outlook. At the same time UK public sector borrowing data was released and showed that the UK’s budget deficit in March narrowed to £4.9 billion vs. expectations for £8.9 billion – this supported bids in sterling. Come the afternoon the USD strengthened and GBP/USD fell to a low of 1.6764, this despite the release of weaker than expected US housing data – new home sales fell in March to 384,000 vs. expectations for 455,000, its lowest level in eight months. Cable has made back some ground overnight though and opens this morning at 1.6780. Markets will be looking to US durable goods data, released this afternoon, for more direction. ECB President Draghi is also due on the wires.
We expect a range today in the GBP/USD rate of 1.6745 to 1.6840
: The strong Eurozone/German manufacturing and services PMIs released yesterday morning saw EUR/USD trade to a high of 1.3854, this after trading to a low of 1.38 earlier in the morning. It then drifted back towards 1.38 in the afternoon as the dollar firmed up, but also on the back of comments from the ECBs Ewald Nowotny who said he would not rule out QE and that an ECB rate cut could be a tool used by the central bank – all quite vague and general but hardly upbeat. The pair has been steady overnight but has rallied on the back of stronger than expected German IFO Business Climate data this morning. The April index rose to 111.2 vs. expectations for 110.5 and EUR/USD has since spiked to 1.3842. Traders may be wary about bidding the single currency higher this morning in advance of a speech by ECB President Draghi.
We expect a range today in the GBP/EUR rate of 1.2100 to 1.2175
⇒ view full report Charts : EUR/USD EUR/AUD EUR/JPY EUR/CHF EUR/CAD EUR/CNY
: In a widely expected move overnight the RBNZ announced a 0.25% rate hike. NZD/USD bounced from .8575 to .8620 on the news and went on to trade to a high of .8635 t as the accompanying statement sounded a fairly hawkish tone saying that inflation pressures were increasing and that further rate rises would be dependent on future data. The kiwi has settled back lower since though and opens the London session at .8595. AUD/USD has been steady by comparison and trades at .9275 this morning, still on the back foot following the weak inflation data released earlier in the week.
We expect a range today in the GBP/AUD rate of 1.8065 to 1.8180
We expect a range today in the GBP/NZD rate of 1.9500 to 1.9610
⇒ view full report
Whilst there has been a hint of risk aversion amid a failed Russian bond auction overnight the Greenback still remains subdued when valued against a basket of its major counterparts dragged slightly lower off the back of figures which showed the sale of new homes unexpectedly plunged in March, to the lowest level in eight months. In other happenings overnight European Flash PMI was positive at 53.1 versus the expected 52.7 whilst other PMI readings confirmed Germany as the flag bearer when compared to the disappointing numbers from France. With ECB President Mario Draghi set to speak this evening in Amsterdam investors will be doing their best to decipher comments related to the Central Banks next monetary policy move. Upon open this morning the Euro is stronger at 1.3815 whilst the Greenback is steady against the Yen at 102.489.
Data releases
No data today
NZD: Official Cash Rate, RBNZ Rate Statement
CSPI y/y
GBP: CBI Realised Sales
⇒ view full report

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