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Wednesday, 22 October 2014 - Market Commentary
Daily currency news provided by UkForex

: GBP/USD - The dollar gained back some ground yesterday as better than expected home sales data supported the Greenback. The pair started the day shrugging off the weaker than expected UK public sector net borrow figures from September and traded a fairly tight 30 pip range between 1.6145 and 1.6175. It was at the top end of this range when US home sales numbers pulled the rug from underneath Sterling's feet. MoM Existing Home Sales for September posted 5.17M vs exp 5.10M while the month change improved by 2.4% vs exp 1%. As such GBP/USD fell through the afternoon and US sessions before finding support around the 1.6110 level. We now look ahead to todays key release of the Bank of England Minutes, from their 9th Oct meeting and US CPI numbers. As mentioned yesterday, the BoE minutes may be discounted due to the fact the minutes are from a meeting that took place before the recent falls in UK CPI or the downgrades in Eurozone growth. Later in the afternoon annualised US CPI is expected to show a slight fall from 1.7% to 1.6%. We open today with GBP/USD at 1.6070.
We expect a range today in the GBP/USD rate of 1.6030 to 1.6120
: GBP/EUR gained further yesterday as a report from Reuters surfaced that the ECB is considering buying corporate bonds. A spokesman for the ECB tried to quell the rumours by stating "The governing council has taken no such decision" but went onto to admit that the action has not been dismissed. While there are many problems to address before this happens the fact that it is one step away from Sovereign bond buying has weakened the Euros position. Sterling Euro therefore traded up almost a cent from an open of 1.26 to level off around 1.2670. As with yesterday no data is due from Europe so today the focus is on the BoE minutes while US CPI numbers could affect risk sentiment. We open today with GBP/EUR at 1.2660. EUR/USD - While the better than expect homes sales data from the US supported the dollar the damage was already done the as rumours of an ECB corporate bond buying program surfaced. Eurodollar fell by one and a quarter cents from an opening price of 1.2835 to 1.2710. With no data due from the Eurozone it will be up to US CPI numbers to provide direction. YoY US CPI is expected to contract from 1.7% to 1.6% so any higher than predicted falls could see US lose support however it is likely the dovish euro sentiment will continue. We open today EUR/USD at 1.2690.
We expect a range today in the GBP/EUR rate of 1.2620 to 1.2710
⇒ view full report Charts : EUR/USD EUR/AUD EUR/JPY EUR/CHF EUR/CAD EUR/CNY
: The better than expected Chinese GDP and Industrial Productions numbers helped the AUD and NZD enjoy buoyant trading through yesterdays sessions however the strong US home sales figures curtailed their gains. AUD/USD traded about 0.88 but soon fell finding support around 0.8770 following the US numbers. Similarly NZD/USD traded briefly above 0.80 before dropping to around 0.7970. Overnight YoY Australian CPI numbers came in as expected at 2.3% and with no data from New Zealand the higher yielding currencies seem range bound ahead of todays US inflation report. We open today with GBP/AUD at 1.8305 and GBP/NZD at 2.0170.
We expect a range today in the GBP/AUD rate of 1.8265 to 1.8355
We expect a range today in the GBP/NZD rate of 2.0160 to 2.0260
⇒ view full report
The U.S. Dollar fell against the Yen through trade on Tuesday as futures traders adjusted bets the Fed will raise rates before October 2015. Expectations of a rate hike have fallen to 46% a remarkable reversal given 51% of analyst predicted an October rate hike at the end of last week. Stronger than expected existing home sales helped fuel Greenback support as the National Association of Relators reported a 2.4% increase for the month of September. In other news the Euro is poised for a further downward correction as reports emerge the ECB is looking to add corporate bond purchases to its easing and stimulus measures as early as December. The Central Bank has this week begun its purchase of short dated government securities purchasing Italian, French and Spanish notes in a bid to boost bank lending and stave off deflation. The Euro has fallen against the majority of its 16 major currency counterparts and with global growth prospects driving direction investors will be keenly focused on manufacturing numbers Thursday. Today attentions turns to US inflation data for further directional impetus.  
Data releases
CPI and Trimmed Mean CPI, CB Leading Index and MI Leading Index
NZD No Data
Trade Balance
GBP MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes, MPC Official Bank Rate Votes, MPC Member Weale Speaks.
⇒ view full report Charts : USD/EUR EUR/USD USD/JPY

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