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Thursday, 30 October 2014 - Market Commentary
Daily currency news provided by UkForex

: GBP/USD - The safe haven dollar has surged against its UK counterpart as the US Federal Reserve Bank confirmed an end to its Quantitative Easing programme and delivered more hawkish comments regarding the US Jobs market. In its October announcement the Federal Open Markets Committee stated "Labor market conditions improved somewhat further, with solid job gains and a lower unemployment rate. On balance, a range of labor market indicators suggests that underutilization of labor resources is gradually diminishing." They then went on to say "there has been a substantial improvement in the outlook for the labor market" and " the Committee continues to see sufficient underlying strength in the broader economy". Considering recent US data has been viewed on the whole as disappointing, some economists predicted the Fed would continue QE past this month. The fact they have decided to end the programme fuels expectation of an interest rate rise by mid 2015. This is in stark contrast to UK rate expectations as Tuesday’s comments from Bank of England deputy governor, Sir Jon Cunlffe, suggest the bank will keep rates on hold for "longer than previously thought". Markets movements were understandably cautious ahead of the Fed statement with Sterling dollar trading a 50 pip range between 1.6105 and 1.6155. Following the news the pair fell over a cent before holding just above the 1.60 level however overnight pound selling has continued and this level has been breached. Today's dockets is clear for the UK but further economic data from the US, in the form of third quarter GDP, jobless claims and personal consumption expenditure, will more than likely see further volatility. We open today with GBP/USD at 1.5970.
We expect a range today in the GBP/USD rate of 1.5950 to 1.6030
⇒ view full report Charts : GBP/USD GBP/EUR GBP/AUD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF GBP/CAD GBP/CNY
: GBP/EUR experienced a relatively quiet day of trading as news from the US dominated proceedings. The pair opened drifting lower as UK lending data for September missed forecasts. Mortgage Approvals posted 61.267K vs 62.250K exp while Net lending to Individuals fell from the previous months figure of £3.2B to £2.7B. The rest of the day saw sterling trading around 1.2650 before returning to its opening price of 1.2665. With no UK data it will be up to German Unemployment numbers and readings from Eurozone economic sentiment surveys to provide todays direction. We open today with GBP/EUR at 1.2705. EUR/USD also fell heavily following the Feds announcement to end its 6 year stimulus programme. Having spent much of the day above 1.2750 the Euro fell over a cent to 1.2645 against its US counterpart. In its statement the FOMC sighted improved Labor market conditions along with broader economic strength as the reasons behind its decision. Now while the committee reiterated its stance on keeping interest rates low for a considerable time, the move has heightened expectation of a rate rise by mid 2015. Looking ahead to today, further volatility is likely with the release of Germanys October Unemployment rate and CPI numbers plus US Q3 GDP, jobless claims and Personal consumption. We open today with EUR/USD at 1.2575
We expect a range today in the GBP/EUR rate of 1.2665 to 1.2745
⇒ view full report Charts : EUR/USD EUR/AUD EUR/JPY EUR/CHF EUR/CAD EUR/CNY
: The commodity linked Aussie and Kiwi dollars fared little better as the FOMC decision saw the Greenback gain across the board. AUD/USD fell to 0.8770 and NZD/USD dropped to 0.7835. While both currencies have fallen, the NZD experienced further downsides following the RBNZ interest rate decision and accompanying statement. As expected the RBNZ kept rates on hold at 3.5% but then went on state they see the current level of NZD as unjustified and unsustainable and expect further significant falls for New Zealand dollar. The comments sent NZD/USD lower still to 0.7775 whilst GBP/NZD peaked to 2.0565. We open today with GBP/AUD at 1.8185 and GBP/NZD at 2.0480.
We expect a range today in the GBP/AUD rate of 1.8135 to 1.8250
We expect a range today in the GBP/NZD rate of 2.0425 to 2.0550
⇒ view full report
Suggesting that the US economy may be strong enough to absorb higher interest rates US Stocks gained ground overnight after the world’s largest economy expanded by 3.5 percent during the third quarter of this year. Whilst the underlying figures did reveal a strong portion of that growth was linked to an increase in government spending a separate report painted an even prettier picture after fewer Americans filed for unemployment benefits over the past month than at any other time. Despite the positive reads the US dollars performance has been mixed overnight, whilst weaker against the majority of G10 currencies the Greenback is stronger this morning against both the Euro (1.2607) and the Yen (109.222). In European developments figures showed consumer prices in Germany unexpectedly slowed heightening concerns that weakness from peripheral Europe has finally reached the core. With the dust having settled on broader US dollar moves, macro softness across the 18-nation bloc threatens to further weigh on the currency both in the short and medium term.
Data releases
PPI q/q
NZD: Building Consents m/m
Household Spending y/y, Tokyo CPI y/y
GBP: No data today
⇒ view full report Charts : USD/EUR EUR/USD USD/JPY

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