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Thursday, 17 April 2014 - Market Commentary
Daily currency news provided by UkForex

: The pound has been the darling of currency markets over the last 24 hours. It broke through 1.68 vs. the US dollar yesterday after UK employment data printed better than expected - the unemployment rate fell to 6.9%, the lowest rate in five years whilst other data showed that average earning rose above the rate of inflation for the first time quite some time. Although there isn’t any unemployment threshold in place any more, markets have been aggressively pricing in a BoE rate hike for April 2015. Should data continue to print as impressively as this over the next few months it’s possible that we’ll see the hike come earlier. Meanwhile risk sentiment improved throughout the day yesterday and US stocks pushed higher. There was some caution ahead of a speech by Janet Yellen but she didn’t say anything new – the Fed was committed to accommodation to support the recovery, that sort of stuff. The USD has continued to weaken overnight and cable now trades at multi-year highs at 1.6835. There’s no UK data up for release this morning. Markets will look to US unemployment claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index later on in the day. In the meantime the pound is likely to continue to be well supported owing to the data yesterday.
We expect a range today in the GBP/USD rate of 1.6650 to 1.6760
: EUR/USD was carried higher with GBP/USD yesterday morning following the strong UK employment report. It traded to a high of 1.3850 but then slowly lost ground during the afternoon. Sales in EUR/GBP and weaker than expected Core European CPI were the main drivers. March Eurozone inflation fell to its lowest level since November 2009 and its likely putting more pressure on the ECB to act. EUR/USD fell to a low of 1.3804 yesterday afternoon but it has slowly recovered in Asia, thanks in the main to a weaker USD, to open this morning at 1.3840.
We expect a range today in the GBP/EUR rate of 1.2040 to 1.2135
⇒ view full report Charts : EUR/USD EUR/AUD EUR/JPY EUR/CHF EUR/CAD EUR/CNY
: AUD/USD has been steady over the last day trading a range between .9335 and .9390. NZD/USD has pushed higher and opens this morning at .8625. It’s been a lacklustre last 24 hours for the commodity currencies, this as traders put their feet up ahead of the long weekend. In terms of data the NAB business confidence index fell in Q1 to 6, from 8 previously whilst NZ job ads for March came in at +1.1%. Neither release had much of an impact on rates.
We expect a range today in the GBP/AUD rate of 1.7700 to 1.7890
We expect a range today in the GBP/NZD rate of 1.9250 to 1.9400
⇒ view full report
Wednesday was another quiet day for the Euro and the US dollar during Asian trade as the currency moved less than 12 points from open. Subdued trade was due to a heavy night session close by as investors waited cautiously for data releases out of the US and Europe.
The main news for the night was US Federal Reserve Janet Yellen’s indication that the time frame as to when interest rates may be lifted in the US will be extended. The rates will be left low as the economy is left to recover and economic indicators will be watched closely to ensure the interest rate adjustments are done at the correct time. 
The Euro’s gain on the US dollar was softened by Inflation data which did slow at the expected rate to 0.5 per cent however has now been below 1 per cent for half a year giving thought to the idea that more stimulus measures need to be put in place to help with the recovery in the Eurozone. Today the Euro opens marginally higher against the US dollar at 1.3815.
All eyes today will turn to the US as Unemployment claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing could give a further indication as to the time frame for further tapering on the US55 billion dollar a month asset purchase program.
Data releases:
Nab Quarterly Business Confidence, New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m
⇒ view full report

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