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Tuesday, 15 April 2014 - Market Commentary
Daily currency news provided by UkForex

: GBP/USD has continued to trade with softer tone this week. It was dragged lower by sales in EUR/USD yesterday morning, this following ECB president Draghi’s comments over the weekend. There are also some concerns for developments in Ukraine which is in turn having an impact on risk demand – in the latest development, the US president has urged Putin to try and make pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine stand down. Meanwhile GBP/USD has fallen back below 1.67 in the last hour or so, this after The People’s Bank of China withdrew 172 billion yuan from markets on Tuesday. The latest worries over the state of China’s liquidity have seen Asian stocks drift lower and so too the pound and euro. GBP/USD opens this morning at 1.6697 ahead of UK and US inflation today. The year on year UK CPI is expected to fall to 1.6% whilst the US rate is expected to rise to 1.5% from 1.1% last time around. Later on in the day Fed Chair Janet Yellen is due to speak and so we could be in for a volatile day in markets.
We expect a range today in the GBP/USD rate of 1.6650 to 1.6760
: EUR/USD has lost more ground over the last 24 hours. It started following Draghi’s comments over the weekend and it’s these comments that have continued to reverberate around financial markets over the last 24 hours. Other ECB officials have since been on the wires; Christian Noyer said in an interview with CNBC yesterday that the recent appreciation of the euro was not appropriate. He went on to say “we still hope that it might correct itself naturally, but if need be we are ready to act.” Meanwhile the German Finance Minister echoed these sentiments saying that any further strengthening of the euro could have a negative impact on the economy. EUR/USD is now testing a break below 1.38, this following the latest liquidity draining exercise by the PBOC overnight. German ZEW (an important economic sentiment index) is due for release today and as well as US data it will likely make for a busy day for EUR/USD traders.
We expect a range today in the GBP/EUR rate of 1.2040 to 1.2135
⇒ view full report Charts : EUR/USD EUR/AUD EUR/JPY EUR/CHF EUR/CAD EUR/CNY
: AUD/USD has been fairly steady over the last 24 hours. The news out of China has been the main driver of its recent fall back below .9400. There wasn’t much of a reaction to the RBA minutes released overnight. The key points to take from the board minutes were that the AUD was still high by historical standards and that the cash rate would remain steady for some time. The NZD has also lost a bit of ground and opens in London at .8645 vs. the US dollar. Investors will be watching out for Chinese GDP and Industrial Production early tomorrow morning as well as NZ CPI later tonight.
We expect a range today in the GBP/AUD rate of 1.7700 to 1.7890
We expect a range today in the GBP/NZD rate of 1.9250 to 1.9400
⇒ view full report
With a European and US session lined up with important figure releases the Euro and US dollar remained fairly quiet during Asian trade. The currency pair opened at 1.3817 and barely moved from this mark trading in a narrow 8 point range.
Overnight all eyes turned to the Inflation forecasts from the US. The data released was positive coming in 0.1 per cent ahead of forecast at 0.2 per cent. The release helped the US dollar rally however the upside was limited as these figures are widely regarded by the US Federal Reserve as below where expectations currently sit. This positive data is however widely viewed as enough to see the US Fed continue to taper the monthly asset purchase program which at the moment sits at US55 billion a month.
In Europe the Euro felt the pressure as the German ZEW consumer sentiment was released and figures were shown to be sitting at an 8 month low. The data came in at 43.2 which was 3.1 below expectations.
Overall the Euro did manage to consolidate slightly higher as the session came to a close however opens weaker against the US today at 1.3813. All eyes tonight will be focused on inflation data from Europe whilst in the US Building permits and a talk by US Fed Chair Janet Yellen will be the main event.
Data releases:
MI Leading Index
⇒ view full report

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