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Thursday, 23 October 2014 - Market Commentary
Daily currency news provided by UkForex

: GBP/USD - Dovish comments from the Band of England's MPC minutes saw sterling fall heavily against the Greenback. While the minutes were expected to dovish in nature there was little for the more hawkish to cling onto as most members stated there was not enough evidence to justify a rake hike. The main reasoning behind the comments coming from slow wage growth, little inflationary pressure and signs that the UK economic recovery is cooling. They also felt that raising rates would leave the UK vulnerable to shocks in the global economy. In expectation of the comments Sterling fell from overnight level of 1.6125 to 1.6025. The afternoon annualised US CPI figures came in slightly better than expected at 1.7% vs exp 1.6% and sterling regained some ground to end the European session at 1.6075. Overnight however a broadly stronger dollar has seen the pair fall back towards the 1.6045 level. The data of note on todays dockets sees Septembers UK retail sales figures released this morning and US jobless claims followed by their August Housing Price Index and Octobers Markit Manufacturing PMI, in the afternoon. We open today with GBP/USD at 1.6025.
We expect a range today in the GBP/USD rate of 1.5985 to 1.6070
⇒ view full report Charts : GBP/USD GBP/EUR GBP/AUD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF GBP/CAD GBP/CNY
: GBP/EUR initially fell leading up to and just after the release of the BoE MPC minutes but then gained as continuing speculation that the ECB could enter the Corporate Bond buying market weakened the Euro. The ECBs governing council member Luc Coene, was also quoted in L’Echo newspaper that corporate bond buying " is the current discussion, but there is no concrete proposal on the table". Spanish news agency Efe, as quoted by Reuters, also reported that 11 European banks could fail ECB stress test further fuelling speculation. As such Sterling gained from a post MPC minute low of 1.2625 to just below 1.27 before levelling off at 1.2690. This mornings Manufacturing and Service PMI from the Eurozone has posted positive readings helping the Euro to regain a little ground. In a short while YoY UK Retail sales numbers for September are expected to fall from 3.9% to 2.8% while MoM figures are expected to drop to -0.1% from 0.4. We open today with GBP/EUR at 1.2665. EUR/USD - better than expected inflation numbers from the US plus speculation of an ECB corporate bond buying programme heaped more pressure on the Euro through Wednesday. Eurodollar spent the morning hovering between 1.2690 and 1.2710 before falling as annualised US CPI numbers posted a reading of 1.7% vs exp 1.6%. MoM CPI also improved to 0.1% from -0.2% the previous month. The positive figures saw the dollar broadly stronger with the pair finding support at 1.2645. This mornings Eurozone Service PMI printed 52.4 vs exp 52 and Manufacturing PMI posted a reading of 50.7 vs exp 49.9. The figures see the EUR/USD slightly higher and we open today at 1.2665. This afternoon the attention shifts to US Jobless claims and Markit Manufacturing PMI.
We expect a range today in the GBP/EUR rate of 1.2625 to 1.2710
⇒ view full report Charts : EUR/USD EUR/AUD EUR/JPY EUR/CHF EUR/CAD EUR/CNY
: Overnight CPI data from New Zealand has sent the Kiwi dumped across the board. YoY CPI for the third quarter came in at 1% vs exp 1.3% while QoQ CPI printed 0.3% vs 0.5% exp. NZD/USD fell 0.75 cents from 0.7930 before finding support at 0.7855. The Aussie dollar also fell but not by as much as the NZD following comments in RBA governor Glenn Stevens speech sighting concerns on the build up of credit to housing investors. AUD/USD was holding 0.8780 before falling to just below 0.8755. Chinas HSBC Manufacturing PMI for Oct posted a slight better figure of 50.4 vs exp 50.3 and we open this morning with GBP/AUD at 1.8235 and GBP/NZD at 2.0395.
We expect a range today in the GBP/AUD rate of 1.8195 to 1.8275
We expect a range today in the GBP/NZD rate of 2.0345 to 2.0440
⇒ view full report
The Greenback rallied to a one week high against the majority of it major currency peers on Wednesday as CPI reports showed an unexpected increase in the overall cost of living. The report helped ease concerns the world’s largest economy may be stagnating in the face of flat global growth and assisted in closing the gap between market and Federal Reserve rate expectations. In other news the Euro slid to a one week low as reports suggest 11 major Eurozone banks will fail this weekend’s stress tests thus increasing concerns surrounding the overall stability of the 18 nation bloc economy. Key manufacturing data due today is expected to show a contraction for the first time in over a year heaping more pressure on the ECB to increase stimulus measures. The contrasting economic outlooks and Central Bank policies leave the Euro ripe for another dramatic downward correction especially as current Euro shorts are spread relatively thin within the futures market. Attentions turn to Euro, French and German Manufacturing PMI this evening for further directional guidance.
Data releases
RBA Governor Stevens Speaks and NAB Quarterly Business Confidence
NZD CPI Q/Q
Flash Manufacturing PMI
GBP MPC Member Broadbent Speaks, Retails Sales, BBA Mortgage Approvals and CBI Industrial Order Expectations.
⇒ view full report Charts : USD/EUR EUR/USD USD/JPY

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