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Tuesday, 16 September 2014 - Market Commentary
Daily currency news provided by UkForex

: All eyes continue to focus on Thursday Scottish independence referendum with the vote expected to bring a narrow victory for the No campaign. The pound continues to be depressed given the uncertainty of the outcome with GBP/USD dropping below 1.62 this morning. All the main Westminster political parties have pledged more powers to Scotland with the Daily Record running a front page article signed by David Cameron, Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg with the headline “The Vow.” This morning has seen UK CPI fall 0.1% to 1.5% as expected. GBP/USD currently trades at 1.6168 with large swings either way forecast when the first election exit polls are released on Thursday. Tomorrow morning sees UK Unemployment data and the release of minutes from the last MPC meeting. This afternoon brings the monthly PPI release from America which is expected to show a 0.1% monthly increase. The main risk event from the States this week will be tomorrows FOMC rate announcement and the accompanying press conference and economic projections. As part of the projections will be Fed members expectations of when interest rates are expected to rise in the States. Given the recent good run of data some members are expected to bring forward the date of the expected first hike.
We expect a range today in the GBP/USD rate of 1.61 to 1.6250
: In the absence of any data so far this week EUR/USD has traded between 1.28 and 1.29 and currently sits at 1.2942. The first top tier data release of the week from the Eurozone is mornings monthly German ZEW Economic Sentiment report. The report has fallen every month this year on the back of the ongoing tensions between Ukraine and Russia and is expected to print its lowest reading since late 2012. GBP/EUR currently trades at 1.2490.
We expect a range today in the GBP/EUR rate of 1.24 to 1.2580
⇒ view full report Charts : EUR/USD EUR/AUD EUR/JPY EUR/CHF EUR/CAD EUR/CNY
: The Aussies recent fall seems to have bottomed out over the past 24 hours with AUD/USD finding support around the .90 level. Poor Chinese data and falling consumer confidence kick-started the fall with a further drop expected if the FOMC release is overly hawkish and if Scotland votes in favour for independence. AUD/USD currently sits at .9005 and GBP/AUD is at 1.7956. NZD/USD has mirrored the Aussies slump and currently trades at .8155 with GBP/NZD at 1.9830.
We expect a range today in the GBP/AUD rate of 1.79 to 1.8050
We expect a range today in the GBP/NZD rate of 1.9730 to 1.99
⇒ view full report
The US dollar fell from a 14-month high overnight when valued against a basket of major currencies after figures showed industrial production unexpectedly fell in August. With Output declining for the first time in seven months the median forecast had predicted a rise of 0.4 percent not a decline of 0.1. In what’s likely to be bumpy a week for broader currency markets heightened price activity is expected either side of the Federal Open Market Committees two day meeting which commences tomorrow evening.  Given markets will be closely listening for any revamped language surrounding the path to higher rates, already there has been signs of heightened tension as investors fear an early exit from the stimulus game. With the market treading water for the time being there remains a raft of broader economic indicators due for release this evening which promises to provide further volatility. Opening stronger against the Yen at 107.161 the Greenback is weaker against the Euro at 1.2937.
Data releases
Monetary Policy Minutes
NZD: No data today
BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks
GBP: CPI y/y, PPI Input m/m, RPI y/y
⇒ view full report Charts : USD/EUR EUR/USD USD/JPY

Why is it that when I go into a currency vendor to send money I never get the rate on the news?

You may well think that you are being ripped off, but it is not always the case. In simple terms what you see on the news or in the paper or on yahoo finance is the Middle Rate or mid-rate. Some people want to buy a currency and some people want to sell a currency and there is a gap (or margin) between the price at which you buy and the price at which you sell. ⇒ read article

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There are a number of cost components to making and receiving international payments, most of which are far from transparent to customers: Currency fees, Transit fees, Correspondent bank fees etc ⇒ read article

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