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Thursday, 23 October 2014 - Market Commentary
Daily currency news provided by CanadianForex

: EUR/USD is weaker having traded to the top of its recent range and come near the top of the long term down trend dating from its June 2011 high up at 1.48 . We expect this to be a heavy resistance zone and we may see some choppy moves around this 1.3250 – 1.3350 range. Relative interest rates have provided for recent strength in EUR, and are likely to provide for further support ahead of next week’s FOMC given the focus on the Fed’s forward guidance thresholds. The ECB meeting two days later on August 1st will be a key focus as market participants look to Draghi for his reaction to both the improving outlook for Europe (PMI’s) and the implications of the recent strengthening in Euro.
We expect a range today of 1.3240 to 1.3290
: GBP/USD is weaker falling to near term support around 1.5370 – The pair has been trading in a narrow range all week, and we should see this move develop and give new direction coming into next week’s more data heavy calendar which will include on Thursday, the UK MPC minutes and interest rate decision, and on Friday the US non-farm payrolls numbers.
We expect a range today of 1.5330 to 1.5400
: September US CPI showed a modest increase of 0.1% from -0.2% while Core was below expectations of 0.2% at 0.1%. Definitely no concern of inflationary pressure in these numbers especially if you consider that September only observed the beginning of the current drop in oil we have observed through October. As this is a key ingredient the FOMC is watching there will be no change to interest rate expectations sitting around August/September 2015. Canadian September Retail Sales missed economists forecast on both the headline and core at -0.3%. The lowest monthly figure we have observed since December 2013. USDCAD dropped from 1.1220 to 1.1280 on the back of this release staying within the current range yet taking away momentum that many were hoping would see CAD challenge the 1.12 level. BOC is on deck at 10:00 where no change is anticipated. Poloz’s press conference will be interesting considering the changing outlook for global growth and the drop in oil will be key points he will be questioned on for the Banks outlook. The tone will remain neutral with slight dovish undertones.
We expect a range today of 1.1190 to 1.1260
: The Euro had a quiet session overnight with the pair tested a 1 week low of 1.2680 on worries about the results of the Eurozone bank stress test on Sunday. A Spanish newspaper report suggest 11 banks will fail. The ECB has responded that the rumours are all speculative. Main event risk will be Thursday’s PMI figures. EUR/CAD opens at 1.4248 this morning.
We expect a range today of 1.4208 to 1.4300
: The Great British Pound is weak, down 20 bps from yesterday’s close. The release of BoE’s October policy meeting showed a vote of 7-2 to keep interest rates and asset purchase facility program on hold when 2 members voted to raise interest rates by 0.25% for the third consecutive time. This news initially weakened the GBP to 1.7988 until retracing all of its loss by this morning. The GBP is currently trading at 1.8083. The Australian Dollar is strong, opening 50 bps higher from yesterday’s close. Inflation data was stronger than expected, as consumer price index rose to 0.5% in the third quarter rather than the forecasted 0.4%. Year over year inflation printed at 2.3% in the last quarter, which is in line with expectations, but a drop from last quarter of 3.0%. NAB Business Confidence report to be released later this evening. The Australian Dollar is currently trading at 0.9898. The New Zealand Dollar is strong, up 15 bps from yesterday’s close. The Kiwi did retrace from its 4 week high yesterday leading into the release of CPI data earlier this evening. The Kiwi is currently trading at 0.8963.

Foreign Real Estate Investing Do's and Don'ts

Bloomberg Television interview with Michael Ward, CEO, North America and Europe for USForex on getting the Best Exchange Rates when sending money abroad from the US plus his thoughts on what to look for when Buying Property Abroad and which global cities are popular right now. ⇒ watch video

Why is it that when I go into a currency vendor to send money I never get the rate on the news?

You may well think that you are being ripped off, but it is not always the case. In simple terms what you see on the news or in the paper or on yahoo finance is the Middle Rate or mid-rate. Some people want to buy a currency and some people want to sell a currency and there is a gap (or margin) between the price at which you buy and the price at which you sell. ⇒ read article

What makes sending money internationally so expensive?

There are a number of cost components to making and receiving international payments, most of which are far from transparent to customers: Currency fees, Transit fees, Correspondent bank fees etc ⇒ read article

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