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Thursday, 30 October 2014 - Market Commentary
Daily currency news provided by UsForex

: EUR/USD is weaker having traded to the top of its recent range and come near the top of the long term down trend dating from its June 2011 high up at 1.48 . We expect this to be a heavy resistance zone and we may see some choppy moves around this 1.3250 – 1.3350 range. Relative interest rates have provided for recent strength in EUR, and are likely to provide for further support ahead of next week’s FOMC given the focus on the Fed’s forward guidance thresholds. The ECB meeting two days later on August 1st will be a key focus as market participants look to Draghi for his reaction to both the improving outlook for Europe (PMI’s) and the implications of the recent strengthening in Euro.
We expect a range today of 1.3240 to 1.3290
Charts : EUR/USD USD/EUR
: GBP/USD is weaker falling to near term support around 1.5370 – The pair has been trading in a narrow range all week, and we should see this move develop and give new direction coming into next week’s more data heavy calendar which will include on Thursday, the UK MPC minutes and interest rate decision, and on Friday the US non-farm payrolls numbers.
We expect a range today of 1.5330 to 1.5400
Charts : GBP/USD USD/GBP
: US Advance GDP for Q3 beat expectations of 3.1% at 3.5%. Initially the big currency gained across the board, but has since given back the gains as this number is largely in line with expectations and shows a decline from 4.6% in Q2. Janet Yellen is speaking at 9:00, however she is only making opening remarks and introductions and there will be no Q & A period to add more light on the Feds hawkish statement from yesterday. Canada has no domestic data today and will be left vulnerable to moves in the larger pairs throughout the day. The Loonie did give up all its gains from yesterday once the FOMC statement was released, but on the positive was a close below 1.1200 and overnight the market did not challenge the next level of resistance at 1.1247, above here there is little resistance to hold the pair back from 1.1385. 1.1125 to the downside held yesterday and will now act as support in the near term.
We expect a range today of 1.1130 to 1.1230
Charts : USD/CAD CAD/USD
: USD/JPY has seen significant weakness today, falling back below the 100 level. The Yen strength was caused by market perception of a “stronger” than expected CPI number, coming in at 0.2% vs 0.1% expected and indicating an increase of inflation in line with the BOJ policies. However, looking at the various components which make up this number we can see that the core drivers of inflation have come from higher energy prices and higher food costs – indicating “bad” cost push inflation, instead of “good” demand pull inflation (via increasing wages). This is not a good sign for the long term health of Japanese companies or the economy.
We expect a range today of 98.00 to 98.60
Charts : USD/JPY JPY/USD
After six years of unprecedented monetary stimulus the US Federal Reserve announced overnight that its quantitative easing program would come to end whilst retaining its existing language surrounding future interest rates rises stating that rates would not rise for “a considerable time” after the end of QE. With the accompanying statement painting an improved employment outlook, overall the tone and the markets reaction were substantially more hawkish than what had been anticipated. Rallying across the board the US dollar is stronger against all of its major counterparts with US Stocks and US treasuries declining. Opening stronger against the Yen this morning at a rate of 108.936 the Euro has struggled opening a full one percent lower at 1.2633. In addition developments which have the clout to further move the US dollar investors will now be eyeing advanced GDP figures scheduled for release this evening.
Data releases
Import Prices q/q
NZD: Official Cash Rate, RBNZ Rate Statement
No data today
GBP: Nationwide HPI m/m
Charts : USD/EUR EUR/USD USD/JPY

Foreign Real Estate Investing Do's and Don'ts

Bloomberg Television interview with Michael Ward, CEO, North America and Europe for USForex on getting the Best Exchange Rates when sending money abroad from the US plus his thoughts on what to look for when Buying Property Abroad and which global cities are popular right now. ⇒ watch video

Why is it that when I go into a currency vendor to send money I never get the rate on the news?

You may well think that you are being ripped off, but it is not always the case. In simple terms what you see on the news or in the paper or on yahoo finance is the Middle Rate or mid-rate. Some people want to buy a currency and some people want to sell a currency and there is a gap (or margin) between the price at which you buy and the price at which you sell. ⇒ read article

What makes sending money internationally so expensive?

There are a number of cost components to making and receiving international payments, most of which are far from transparent to customers: Currency fees, Transit fees, Correspondent bank fees etc ⇒ read article

BestExchangeRates in the PressSMH.com.au Money

“A check with the foreign-exchange comparison website bestexchangerates.net shows a big variation in the exchange rates available when sending money and buying cash.” SMH.com.au ⇒ read article

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