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Tuesday, 22 July 2014 - Market Commentary
Daily currency news provided by UsForex

: EUR/USD is weaker having traded to the top of its recent range and come near the top of the long term down trend dating from its June 2011 high up at 1.48 . We expect this to be a heavy resistance zone and we may see some choppy moves around this 1.3250 – 1.3350 range. Relative interest rates have provided for recent strength in EUR, and are likely to provide for further support ahead of next week’s FOMC given the focus on the Fed’s forward guidance thresholds. The ECB meeting two days later on August 1st will be a key focus as market participants look to Draghi for his reaction to both the improving outlook for Europe (PMI’s) and the implications of the recent strengthening in Euro.
We expect a range today of 1.3240 to 1.3290
Charts : EUR/USD USD/EUR
: GBP/USD is weaker falling to near term support around 1.5370 – The pair has been trading in a narrow range all week, and we should see this move develop and give new direction coming into next week’s more data heavy calendar which will include on Thursday, the UK MPC minutes and interest rate decision, and on Friday the US non-farm payrolls numbers.
We expect a range today of 1.5330 to 1.5400
Charts : GBP/USD USD/GBP
: June US CPI is the main event for the North American trading day and the core release was a bit softer than anticipated dropping from 0.3 to 0.1%. The market had anticipated reading of 0.2%. The headline figure remained steady at 0.3%, comfortably in line with expectations. The annualized figure remains at 2.1%. The concern of inflation getting a toehold in the economy has passed and the Fed’s assessment of last month’s spike being temporary is accurate. The USD was looking healthy coming into this release but after a quick kneejerk reaction it is gradually giving back those gains.
We expect a range today of 1.0730 to 1.0800
Charts : USD/CAD CAD/USD
: USD/JPY has seen significant weakness today, falling back below the 100 level. The Yen strength was caused by market perception of a “stronger” than expected CPI number, coming in at 0.2% vs 0.1% expected and indicating an increase of inflation in line with the BOJ policies. However, looking at the various components which make up this number we can see that the core drivers of inflation have come from higher energy prices and higher food costs – indicating “bad” cost push inflation, instead of “good” demand pull inflation (via increasing wages). This is not a good sign for the long term health of Japanese companies or the economy.
We expect a range today of 98.00 to 98.60
Charts : USD/JPY JPY/USD
With no data out of the Eurozone to give direction investors watched as the Euro slid to an 8 month low against the Greenback. Inflationary data out of the US was shown to meet expectations for the month of June and the market watched as the US dollar rallied across the board. Later in the evening existing home sales data printed a strong increase underpinning the USD’s gains. Once again these strong signs from the market are continuing to hint that the US Federal Reserve will be looking to end their bond buying program in the next few months leaving the timeframe for a potential interest rate increase shorter than expected, sometime in 2015. Today’s economic docket is relatively light as eyes will turn to Thursday in the Eurozone and US for an array of manufacturing data, unemployment claims and home sales.
Data releases:
CPI q/q, Trimmed Mean CPI q/q
No Data
No Data
MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes, MPC Official Bank Rate Votes, BBA Mortgage Approvals, CBI Realized Sales, BOE Gov Carney Speaks
Charts : USD/EUR EUR/USD USD/JPY

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