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Thursday, 28 May 2015 - Market Commentary
Daily currency news provided by UsForex

: EUR/USD is weaker having traded to the top of its recent range and come near the top of the long term down trend dating from its June 2011 high up at 1.48 . We expect this to be a heavy resistance zone and we may see some choppy moves around this 1.3250 – 1.3350 range. Relative interest rates have provided for recent strength in EUR, and are likely to provide for further support ahead of next week’s FOMC given the focus on the Fed’s forward guidance thresholds. The ECB meeting two days later on August 1st will be a key focus as market participants look to Draghi for his reaction to both the improving outlook for Europe (PMI’s) and the implications of the recent strengthening in Euro.
We expect a range today of 1.3240 to 1.3290
Charts : EUR/USD USD/EUR
: GBP/USD is weaker falling to near term support around 1.5370 – The pair has been trading in a narrow range all week, and we should see this move develop and give new direction coming into next week’s more data heavy calendar which will include on Thursday, the UK MPC minutes and interest rate decision, and on Friday the US non-farm payrolls numbers.
We expect a range today of 1.5330 to 1.5400
Charts : GBP/USD USD/GBP
: USD strength has continued to drive trading this week as domestic data has been positive and a change in tone at the FED level has pulled forward rate hike expectations. Today we will focus on jobless claims from the US as well as pending home sales. Yellen has said the FED is extremely focused on labour metrics, as such, we can expect that a strong jobless claims number will drive further USD strength as the market would expect a more hawkish FED as a result of the figures. Pending home sales are expected to rise for the fourth consecutive month. The USD/CAD is currently trading at 1.2500.
We expect a range today of 1.2449 to 1.2541
Charts : USD/CAD CAD/USD
: USD/JPY has seen significant weakness today, falling back below the 100 level. The Yen strength was caused by market perception of a “stronger” than expected CPI number, coming in at 0.2% vs 0.1% expected and indicating an increase of inflation in line with the BOJ policies. However, looking at the various components which make up this number we can see that the core drivers of inflation have come from higher energy prices and higher food costs – indicating “bad” cost push inflation, instead of “good” demand pull inflation (via increasing wages). This is not a good sign for the long term health of Japanese companies or the economy.
We expect a range today of 98.00 to 98.60
Charts : USD/JPY JPY/USD
Monetary policy expectations helped the U.S Dollar touch twelve and a half year highs against the Japanese Yen as markets prepare for a prolonged period of BoJ quantitative easing while expectations of a year-end Federal Reserve rate adjustment continue to grow. A stable unemployment print and strong pending home sales report helped bolster claims the economy is recovering from its anaemic first quarter and support suggestions the slowdown was an anomaly that will be reversed leading into the second half of the year. Touching 124.46 the USD gave back much of the advance leading into the daily close as comments from Japanese finance minister Taro Aso hinted at a BoJ intervention should the Yen continue to tumble. The Euro held gains as markets cling to the hope European Creditors and Greece will come to an agreement on reform and advance the next tranche of debt assistance before the cash-strapped nation is forced to default on its current loans. Attentions will be squarely focused on US prelim GDP number and the ongoing Greek debt negotiations for direction into the weekend.
Data releases:
HIA New Home Sales m/m and Private Sector Credit m/m
NZD: ANZ Business Confidence and Building Consents
Household Spending, Tokyo Core CPI, National Core CPI, Unemployment Rate, Prelim Industrial Production and Housing Starts.
GBP: GFK Consumer Confidence         
Charts : USD/EUR EUR/USD USD/JPY

BER Notebook - FX Market Research & Currency News/Views from our Partners See more >>

OzForex Research
Major Currency Pair Movements Last Week: EUR/USD - Extended its gains last week. USD/JPY - Reversed direction. GBP/USD - Gained ground. AUD/USD - Extended its previous week’s gains. USD/CAD - Extended its previous week’s losses. NZD/USD - Lost a fraction last week. Continue reading
Posted on 10 May 2015 | 7:17 pm
Agility Forex
USDCAD Overnight Range 1.2048-1.2142 The highly anticipated US (and Canadian) employment reports were greeted with a resounding “meh”. NFP was right on consensus and the unemployment rate is 5.4%. EURUSD rose and fell and is currently back to its pre-release level. The Canadian report was worse than expected, which was actually expected, shedding 19,700 jobs.… Continue reading
Posted on 8 May 2015 | 6:37 am
OzForex Research
Major Currency Pair Movements Last Week: EUR/USD - Continued its rally last week. USD/JPY - Continued gaining. GBP/USD - Reversed direction. AUD/USD - Gained another fraction. USD/CAD - Lost a fraction. NZD/USD - Extended its previous week’s losses. Continue reading
Posted on 3 May 2015 | 5:43 pm
OzForex Research
Major Currency Pair Movements Last Week: EUR/USD - Extended its previous week’s gains. USD/JPY - Gained a fraction. GBP/USD - Extended its previous week’s gains. AUD/USD - Gained a fraction. USD/CAD - Extended its previous losses. NZD/USD - Reversed direction last week. Continue reading
Posted on 26 April 2015 | 7:57 pm
OzForex Research
Major Currency Pair Movements Last Week: EUR/USD - Gained ground last week. USD/JPY - Sold off. GBP/USD - Rallied last week. AUD/USD - Extended its gains. USD/CAD - Gave back its previous week’s gains. NZD/USD - Gained ground last week. Continue reading
Posted on 19 April 2015 | 8:33 pm

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