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Tuesday, 15 April 2014 - Market Commentary
Daily currency news provided by UsForex

: EUR/USD is weaker having traded to the top of its recent range and come near the top of the long term down trend dating from its June 2011 high up at 1.48 . We expect this to be a heavy resistance zone and we may see some choppy moves around this 1.3250 – 1.3350 range. Relative interest rates have provided for recent strength in EUR, and are likely to provide for further support ahead of next week’s FOMC given the focus on the Fed’s forward guidance thresholds. The ECB meeting two days later on August 1st will be a key focus as market participants look to Draghi for his reaction to both the improving outlook for Europe (PMI’s) and the implications of the recent strengthening in Euro.
We expect a range today of 1.3240 to 1.3290
Charts : EUR/USD USD/EUR
: GBP/USD is weaker falling to near term support around 1.5370 – The pair has been trading in a narrow range all week, and we should see this move develop and give new direction coming into next week’s more data heavy calendar which will include on Thursday, the UK MPC minutes and interest rate decision, and on Friday the US non-farm payrolls numbers.
We expect a range today of 1.5330 to 1.5400
Charts : GBP/USD USD/GBP
: The CAD is weak going into tomorrow’s BoC Rate Statement as USD/CAD traded back above 1.1000 in North American open. On the data front, US CPI and Canadian Manufacturing Sales both came in slightly stronger than expected this morning. Near term risk for the pair is tomorrow’s BoC meeting, where the BoC is expected to hold a neutral bias, leaving most risk with Governor Poloz’s press conference. A shift of tone to a less dovish one would be supportive of the CAD.
We expect a range today of 1.0965 to 1.1025
Charts : USD/CAD CAD/USD
: USD/JPY has seen significant weakness today, falling back below the 100 level. The Yen strength was caused by market perception of a “stronger” than expected CPI number, coming in at 0.2% vs 0.1% expected and indicating an increase of inflation in line with the BOJ policies. However, looking at the various components which make up this number we can see that the core drivers of inflation have come from higher energy prices and higher food costs – indicating “bad” cost push inflation, instead of “good” demand pull inflation (via increasing wages). This is not a good sign for the long term health of Japanese companies or the economy.
We expect a range today of 98.00 to 98.60
Charts : USD/JPY JPY/USD
With a European and US session lined up with important figure releases the Euro and US dollar remained fairly quiet during Asian trade. The currency pair opened at 1.3817 and barely moved from this mark trading in a narrow 8 point range.
Overnight all eyes turned to the Inflation forecasts from the US. The data released was positive coming in 0.1 per cent ahead of forecast at 0.2 per cent. The release helped the US dollar rally however the upside was limited as these figures are widely regarded by the US Federal Reserve as below where expectations currently sit. This positive data is however widely viewed as enough to see the US Fed continue to taper the monthly asset purchase program which at the moment sits at US55 billion a month.
In Europe the Euro felt the pressure as the German ZEW consumer sentiment was released and figures were shown to be sitting at an 8 month low. The data came in at 43.2 which was 3.1 below expectations.
Overall the Euro did manage to consolidate slightly higher as the session came to a close however opens weaker against the US today at 1.3813. All eyes tonight will be focused on inflation data from Europe whilst in the US Building permits and a talk by US Fed Chair Janet Yellen will be the main event.
Data releases:
MI Leading Index

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