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Tuesday, 13 October 2015 - Market Commentary
Daily currency news provided by UkForex

: It was a subdued start to the week yesterday with it being a public holiday in Japan and North America. There wasn’t much economic data released on the day either. There were a few Fed speakers though; Lockhart was sounding hawkish on rate hikes again while Charles Evans said that the pace of interest rate hikes was more important than the timing of the first increase. Neither comments had much of an effect on rates – GBP/USD was steady around 1.5350 for much of the day. The pair then fell to an overnight low of 1.5304 but has popped higher this morning ahead of UK inflation data at 9:30am. The reading is expected to come in flat at 0%. The pound is also benefiting from news this morning that SABMiller, the brewer, has accepted “in principle” an increased takeover offer from Anheuser-Busch InBev of £44 a share. Cable has touched on 1.5386 already and trades at 1.5370 currently.
We expect a range today in the GBP/USD rate of 1.5170 to 1.5365
: EUR/USD drifted slowly lower yesterday during what was a quiet day’s trading. It dropped to a low of 1.1340 overnight but has recovered this morning. Stocks are weaker this morning, which might be helping, but moreover it’s likely to be down to a bit of mild profit taking. German ZEW is due this morning and being an important business sentiment survey it might well set the tone for the single currency come 10am. GBP/EUR trades at the bottom of its most recent range this at 1.3465.
We expect a range today in the GBP/EUR rate of 1.3360 to 1.3450
⇒ view full report Charts : EUR/USD EUR/AUD EUR/JPY EUR/CHF EUR/CAD EUR/CNY
: AUD/USD has been sold off over the last 24 hours. It initially reacted to Bank of Japan Minutes which were suggestive of the central bank taking a patient approach to monetary policy easing. The yen firmed against most currencies including the aussie dollar and it put downward pressure on AUD/USD. Chinese data was then released a little later in the day (or overnight) and although the response to a better than expected export number was positive, it wasn’t long before AUD/USD continued on its downward trajectory. The theme is continuing this morning too and AUD/USD opens in London at .7305. NZD/USD has been pulled lower by AUD/USD as well as the unwinding in NZD/JPY and it trades at .6680 currently.
We expect a range today in the GBP/AUD rate of 2.0800 to 2.1090
We expect a range today in the GBP/NZD rate of 2.2740 to 2.2990
⇒ view full report
The U.S Dollar suffered loses across most major currencies through trade on Tuesday after softer than anticipated Chinese import data forced investors to extend the timeline of expectation surrounding a Federal Reserve rate adjustment. Chinese imports fell a whopping twenty percent in the twelve months to September highlighting concerns surrounding domestic demand and the broader Chinese economy. The soft print saw the USD touch three week lows and prompted a shift in trading ranges as investors look to price out an October policy amendment while global economic conditions and commentary from key Fed officials suggest a December rate alteration is becoming increasingly unlikely. FOMC members Tarullo and Bullard both implied further data was necessary before all voting members would be convinced to amend the current policy stance. The USD/JPY slipped back below 120.00 while the Euro pushed through 1.14 before paring gains on weaker than expected German Economic sentiment and opens this morning buying 1.1383. Attentions today turn to U.S Retail Sales numbers as the primary macroeconomic marker for direction.
Data releases:
Westpac Consumer Sentiment
NZD: RBNZ Governor Wheeler Speaks
M2 Money Stock and PPI y/y
GBP: Average Earnings Index 3m/y, Claimant Count and Unemployment Rate
⇒ view full report Charts : USD/EUR EUR/USD USD/JPY

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