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Wednesday, 26 November 2014 - Market Commentary
Daily currency news provided by UkForex

: The Bank of England Governor Mark Carney and other MPC members testified before the Treasury Select Committee yesterday. They didn’t say anything too surprising – Carney said that the next policy move would be to raise interest rates, although didn’t say when. He also referred to there being uncertainty about the extent of slack in the economy and that the UK economy still faced threats from the Eurozone. Referring to inflation MPC member Kristin Forbes said that “currently measures of domestically generated inflation are also low, and that should continue to keep inflation contained for now”. If anything the tone of the Hearings was dovish but it didn’t have too much of a negative impact on the pound. Later on in the day on Tuesday, US Prelim GDP q/q printed quite a lot stronger than expectations, showing that the US economy expanded by 3.9% in the third quarter. GBP/USD dipped to a low of 1.5656 on the news, but again the impact was fairly muted. In contrast, US consumer confidence data and Richmond manufacturing numbers were weak and quite a lot worse than forecasts. The dollar immediately weakened on the news and GBP/USD rallied to 1.5728. It’s held pretty firm throughout the overnight session too and opens this morning at 1.5715. UK Second Estimate GDP, US Durable Goods Orders and US New Home Sales are the key releases to look out for today.
We expect a range today in the GBP/USD rate of 1.5650 to 1.5775
⇒ view full report Charts : GBP/USD GBP/EUR GBP/AUD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF GBP/CAD GBP/CNY
: EUR/USD also responded positively to the weak numbers from the US yesterday and rallied from 1.2400 to a high of 1.2486. It has gone on to trade even higher today and touched on 1.2494, in line with stronger equity prices in Europe this morning. Like yesterday, there isn’t much by way of European economic data due today but the pair is likely to be responsive to a plethora of US numbers this afternoon. Meanwhile, the euro has made good ground vs. GBP over the last 24 hours and GBP/EUR trades at 1.2590 currently.
We expect a range today in the GBP/EUR rate of 1.2560 to 1.2650
⇒ view full report Charts : EUR/USD EUR/AUD EUR/JPY EUR/CHF EUR/CAD EUR/CNY
: The aussie dollar has continued to fall over the last day. Weaker than expected Australian construction data released overnight didn’t do the currency any favours and doesn’t bode well for GDP. AUD/USD has broken down through stops under .8520 this morning – it opens at .8500 and is threatening to slip below this level. NZD/USD has been steady by comparison. In fact, it has pushed mildly higher over the last 24 hours although not in response to any particular event – it opens in London at .7825.
We expect a range today in the GBP/AUD rate of 1.8380 to 1.8720
We expect a range today in the GBP/NZD rate of 2.0000 to 2.0200
⇒ view full report
Once again the US economic indicators took centre stage last night overshadowing the minor European releases to give direction to the markets. The statistics surprised to the downside leading the Greenback to be sold off heavily across a basket of major currencies. Core durable goods orders were down nearly a percent while the labour department announced the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits increased to 313,000 from a previous number of 292,000 and forecast of 287,000. Personal spending and income were also lower than expected with Chicago PMI, and consumer sentiment similarly missing the mark. The icing on the cake was housing numbers showing pending home sales falling and new home sales increasing substantially less than anticipated. While the markets are envisaging an interest rate rise by the US in 2015 continuing mixed data from the US will need to steady otherwise the timetable will be continually pushed further and further back. The European markets will have their moment in the limelight tonight with German preliminary CPI the highlight.
Data releases: 
HIA New Home Sales m/m, Private Capital Expenditure q/q
Trade Balance
No Data
No Data
⇒ view full report Charts : USD/EUR EUR/USD USD/JPY

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