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Friday, 24 October 2014 - Market Commentary
Daily currency news provided by UkForex

: GBP/USD - Sterling initially fell as UK retail sales, BBA mortgage approvals and CBI Industrial trends survey all came in below expectations but then regained some ground a US Jobless claims and Manufacturing PMI data disappointed. The pair opened the day lower as the Bank of England's Ben Broadbent, speaking at the society of business economists’ conference, reiterated that the bank will only increase rates once headwinds dissipate. Considering the scale of headwinds coming from the Eurozone it may be sometime before this happens. Shortly after MoM Retail Sales printed -0.3% vs -0.1% exp, BBA mortgage approvals fell to 39.3K vs 41.5K exp and the CBI Industrial Trends Survey posted a reading of -6 vs -4 exp. These figures raised concerns that the UK economy has started to cool and GBP/USD fell below the 1.60 level. The pound then found come composure and gained up to 1.6045 as US initial Jobless Claims rose to 283K vs 266K from the previous month and Manufacturing PMI came in below expectations with a reading of 56.2 vs 57 exp. This morning sees the release of UK GDP for Q3 while in the afternoon we have US New Home Sales for September. We open today with GBP/USD at 1.6030.
We expect a range today in the GBP/USD rate of 1.5990 to 1.6080
: GBP/EUR - The Euro began the day on the rise against Sterling despite weaker than expected Manufacturing and Service PMI data from France. BoE Member Ben Broadbent speech to the society of business economists conference plus higher than predicted Manufacturing and Service PMI from the Eurozone fuelled Euro gains ahead of the UK Retail sales numbers. Much of the damage was already done before the UK release as the pair fell from an overnight level of 1.2690 to 1.2650 but a further 15 pips was shaved from the rate following the UK data. The single currencies gains were short lived however and GBP/EUR was back up to 1.2670 by the end of the day. Today we now look to UK GDP readings for direction with annualised GDP predicted to show a fall from 3.2% to 3.0%. We open today with GBP/EUR at 1.2675. EUR/USD - Bullish European Manufacturing and Service PMI combined with poor US economic data lifted Eurodollar higher through yesterday sessions. The day opened with EU Manufacturing PMI printing a reading of 50.7 vs 49.9 exp while Service PMI posted 52.4 vs 52 exp, helping the pair raise half a cent to 1.2675. Despite the afternoons worse than expected US Jobless Claims and Manufacturing PMI the dollar seemed to be regaining a little ground and the pair fell to 1.2635. By the end of the day however EUR/USD rose back towards 1.2650. Data is thin on the ground from both Europe and the US today with only US New Home Sales for September being of note. We open today with EUR/USD at 1.2640.
We expect a range today in the GBP/EUR rate of 1.2635 to 1.2715
⇒ view full report Charts : EUR/USD EUR/AUD EUR/JPY EUR/CHF EUR/CAD EUR/CNY
: The commodity linked Aussie and Kiwi dollars are broadly weaker against both GBP and USD as poor overnight trade balance data from NZ and continuing concerns in global growth weigh on the higher yielding currencies. The surplus in New Zealands YoY Trade balance fell from $2.02Bn to $0.65Bn while MoM figures printed $-1,350M vs $-700M exp. AUD/USD dropped from above 0.8780 to hit overnight lows of 0.8730 and NZD/USD faired a little better falling from 0.7850 to 0.7815. The disappointing UK retail sales numbers did see GBP down against AUD and NZD, falling to lows of 1.8210 and 2.0370 respectively but today we open with GBP/AUD at 1.8306 and GBP/NZD at 2.0480.
We expect a range today in the GBP/AUD rate of 1.8250 to 1.8370
We expect a range today in the GBP/NZD rate of 2.0430 to 2.0540
⇒ view full report
The Greenback correction continued Thursday with the Bloomberg dollar spot index advancing for a third consecutive day. Fewer jobless claims and a reported increase in national economic activity according to the Fed Reserves Bank of Chicago helped bolster market confidence sparking a risk on rally. A week of stable and strengthening US data sets supports an overall stronger US economy and view that the recovery can withstand deteriorating global growth. In other news the Euro rot was halted, if only momentarily, by an unexpected expansion in Manufacturing PMI. German and Eurozone reports showed an increase throughout September easing concerns the stagnant European Economy is moving closer to an overall contraction. Finally the Japanese Yen dove downward as Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda said that a weaker Yen appears in line with economic fundamentals and promised to increase stimulus if needed adding to already unprecedented levels of support. With little on the global economic calendar to close the week focus will turn to New Home Sales data in the U.S. for additional indications the economy is rebounding.   
Data releases
No Data
NZD Trade Balance
No Data
GBP Prelim GDP q/q and Index of Services
⇒ view full report Charts : USD/EUR EUR/USD USD/JPY

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