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Friday, 23 January 2015 - Market Commentary
Daily currency news provided by UkForex

: The dollar gained across the board yesterday as events from Frankfurt dominated the news, more to follow. Cable has dropped overnight to below 1.50 for the first time since July 2013 and currently trades at 1.4962. With most western economies having a dovish or neutral bias towards monetary policy at present it looks like the dollar run is set to continue especially if the Fed Rate starts to be hiked in the summer. Yesterday saw worse than expected net borrowing for December from the UK with a £12.5B deficit. Unemployment Claims from the US were slightly worse than the 301k expected printing 307k. These events like much of the other data this week was overlooked as the world focused on the ECB statement and press conference. This morning we have the monthly Retail Sales figures from the UK.
We expect a range today in the GBP/USD rate of 1.49 to 1.51
⇒ view full report Charts : GBP/USD GBP/EUR GBP/AUD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF GBP/CAD GBP/CNY
: Mario Draghi yesterday confirmed what most of the world had been expecting for the past couple of weeks as he launched a huge Quantitative Easing programme to try and rescue the Eurozone from a dangerous deflationary cycle. Despite opposition from Germany the ECB will buy bonds to the tune of €60b per month with most of this made up of investment grade sovereign debt. Draghi stated QE would run until at least September 2016 leaving the door open for an extension into 2017. He also left the door open for increases to the monthly purchases should inflation not pick up in the medium term. The package was more than most economists were expecting and the Euro saw an immediate drop in value as details of the plan came out. EUR/USD currently trades at an 11 year low of 1.13 with many expecting a drop below 1.10 as the year progresses. German 10 year bunds are trading at an all-time low of 0.42% with the 30 year Bund yielding less than 1% for the first time. Spanish and Italian bonds have also hit all-time lows. It appears the Swiss National Bank had the earliest idea of the scale of the plan given their decision last week to abandon their cap against the Euro and cut rates further into negative territory. All Swiss government debt up to ten years have negative yields! The Danish government have cut rates twice in the past week to -0.35% in an effort to try and defend its currency peg. GBP/EUR sits at a seven-year high of 1.3271. Stock markets around the world are soaring with the Dow Jones finishing 1.5% up yesterday. All the major European indices open higher this morning.
We expect a range today in the GBP/EUR rate of 1.3190 to 1.3333
⇒ view full report Charts : EUR/USD EUR/AUD EUR/JPY EUR/CHF EUR/CAD EUR/CNY
: Aussie and Kiwi movement has been volatile this week in the build-up and aftermath of the ECB decision. With Canada’s unexpected rate cut on Thursday from 1% to 0.75% speculation has fuelled that the RBA may be forced to follow suit in an effort to fight the contagion of low inflation. As a result AUD/USD has dropped below .80 to trade at .7990. NZD/USD sits at .7508. GBP/AUD is at 1.8762 with GBP/NZD at 1.9945.
We expect a range today in the GBP/AUD rate of 1.87 to 1.89
We expect a range today in the GBP/NZD rate of 1.9820 to 2.0050
⇒ view full report
Comfortably surpassing the high expectations which had been established, the size, style and duration of last night’s announcement by the ECB has resulted in more than a two and half cent drop for the 18-nation Euro. A move big enough that lows of 1.1361 were witnessed, levels not seen in over 11 years, the specific details of lasts night Policy shift entail a plan to buy 60 billion euros a month worth of public and private debt through to September 2016. In a move similar to the quantitative easing programs previously unveiled by the BOJ and US Fed the heightened levels of liquidity and the accompanying low yields threaten to keep the value of the euro well and truly supressed for an extended period. Opening weaker this morning at a rate of 1.1378 the greenback is stronger against the Japanese Yen at 118.458  
Data releases
No data today
NZD: No data today
No data today
GBP: Retail Sales m/m
⇒ view full report Charts : USD/EUR EUR/USD USD/JPY

BER Notebook - FX Market Research & Currency News/Views from our Partners See more >>

Agility Forex
Well, what a week! I can’t remember seeing such sustained volatility in the markets for a long time. The over-riding theme remains the almighty dollar, currently at 6 year highs against the Loonie and 11 year highs against the Euro. Although everyone knew it was coming the sheer size of yesterday’s ECB QE announcement caused… Continue reading
Posted on 23 January 2015 | 8:26 pm
OzForex Research
Financial markets over the past year have been defined by diverging monetary policy settings with shifting rate expectations changing the dynamic of broader forex markets. Having initially traded up above the 94 US Cents mark as recently as September the Australian dollar has now lost more than 15 percent over the past four months a… Continue reading
Posted on 22 January 2015 | 7:06 pm
Agility Forex
Mario Draghi did not disappoint today when the ECB announced a QE programme to buy 60 Billion Euro in assets per month until September 2016 . The asset purchases will cover both private and public sector bonds and will begin in March 2015. European focus will now turn to the Greek election on Sunday. After… Continue reading
Posted on 21 January 2015 | 8:49 pm
OzForex Research
The Swiss National Bank gave us volatility on a historic scale last week as it rocked markets by abandoning the nearly three-year-old policy of supporting the value of the Swiss franc relative to the euro at 1.20. The Swiss franc consequently appreciated sharply across the board, distorting flows and liquidity market-wide. While this took the… Continue reading
Posted on 19 January 2015 | 4:09 pm
Agility Forex
Throughout my years on Wall Street and to this day, one question has always bothered me. I have never got a good explanation as to why the price of crude oil and the strength of the USD move in negative correlation. I’ve heard many different arguments but none are foolproof. I’ve even read that there… Continue reading
Posted on 12 January 2015 | 6:24 am

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