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Wednesday, 17 September 2014 - Market Commentary
Daily currency news provided by UkForex

: Yesterday saw a lot of volatility in the pound with sharp moves in GBP/USD during the London and New York sessions. Yesterday morning brought the release of the monthly CPI figure from the UK which fell, as expected from 1.6% to 1.5%. Although the fall in inflation was expected cable fell below 1.62 to as low as 1.6172 immediately after the release. The release brings the lowest inflation reading in the UK since 2009 and will play into the hands of the doves in the MPC who are keen to keep interest rates lower for longer. Cable managed to get above the 1.62 handle in the afternoon then jumped dramatically, briefly breaking 1.63, as the London session came to an end as the dollar was sold off ahead of tonight’s FOMC statement. It appears the markets believe the statement will disappoint those hoping the recent run of good data will bring more hawkish tones re: rate rises. GBP/USD currently trades at 1.6309. Today brings a slew of key releases both from the UK and America. First up this morning we have the Bank of England MPC minutes from the September 4th meeting. Markets will be looking for signs of anymore MPC members shifting position to join hawks McCafferty and Weale in voting for a rate rise. At the same time we have Unemployment and Average Earnings data from the UK with pound bulls hoping the latter shows a pick up from last month’s poor reading. This afternoon brings US CPI data and then later we have the aforementioned FOMC statement. Tomorrow sees the Scottish referendum finally arrive with a slim victory for the No vote expected.
We expect a range today in the GBP/USD rate of 1.62 to 1.6455
: Yesterday saw the closely followed monthly German ZEW Economic Sentiment survey fall for the eighth consecutive month. The reading fell from 8.6 to 6.9 as tensions in Ukraine, low inflation and the economic slow-down weigh on business confidence in the Eurozone. Although the fall wasn’t as great as expected the reading is the lowest since 2012. At the end of the London session EUR/USD jumped mirroring cables move on the rumours from the States re: a possible dovish FOMC statement. EUR/USD briefly touched 1.2990 however the gain was quickly pared. EUR/USD currently trades at 1.2955. This morning sees Final CPI from the Eurozone with no change expected from the flash reading of 0.3%. GBP/EUR trades at 1.2588.
We expect a range today in the GBP/EUR rate of 1.25 to 1.2680
⇒ view full report Charts : EUR/USD EUR/AUD EUR/JPY EUR/CHF EUR/CAD EUR/CNY
: Overnight saw New Zealand’s current account print -1.07B when a slightly more modest -1.04B had been expected. Both the Aussie and the Kiwi reacted positively to the rumours re: the FOMC with AUD/USD briefly breaking above .91 and NZD/USD reaching .8220. AUD/USD currently trades at .9067 with NZD/USD at .8181. GBP/USD is at 1.80 with GBP/NZD at 1.9950. Tonight sees Q2 GDP from New Zealand with 0.6% growth expected for the quarter.
We expect a range today in the GBP/AUD rate of 1.7880 to 1.81
We expect a range today in the GBP/NZD rate of 1.9825 to 2.0050
⇒ view full report
Treasuries fell whilst the US dollar gained overnight after the US Federal Reserve retained its pledge to keep interest rates near zero for a “considerable time”. In what proved to be one of the most highly anticipated meetings this year, policy makers stopped well short of overhauling its policy statement instead repeating its assessment that a significant amount of slack still remains within the labour market. Whilst there wasn’t a great deal new about the Fed’s stance overall investors have viewed the statement in a positive light pushing the US dollar Index to its highest point in 14 months. In other economic developments US CPI missed forecast at -0.2 percent whilst current account numbers exceeded expectation. In what’s been a tumultuous week for broader currency markets the Greenback is unsurprisingly stronger against the Yen this morning at 108.323 whilst also comfortably outpacing the Euro (1.2860).
Data releases
RBA Bulletin  
NZD: GDP q/q
Trade Balance
GBP: Retail Sales m/m, CBI Industrial Order Expectations, Scottish Independence Vote
⇒ view full report Charts : USD/EUR EUR/USD USD/JPY

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