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Tuesday, 01 September 2015 - Market Commentary
Daily currency news provided by UkForex

: It was a bank holiday in the UK yesterday and although trading conditions were a bit thinner it didn’t mean that markets were any less volatile. US stocks lost ground again, a reaction in part to some fairly hawkish comments emanating from the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday; Fed Vice Chair Fischer said that “we should not wait until inflation is back to 2% to begin tightening”. All in all a rate hike could still happen in September but uncertainty prevails. Focus, for the most part, remains on China too after the events of last week with Chinese Manufacturing PMI and Caixin Final Manufacturing vying for attention overnight last night. Alas, the releases both pointed to further slowdown in the Chinese economy which did nothing positive for risk appetite. Risk remains off this morning with equities lower and the US dollar generally firmer. GBP/USD fell to a low of 1.5342 yesterday evening and although it’s climbed off of these lows overnight the pair remains on the back foot at 1.5397. UK markets are back in full swing this morning after the long weekend so we might see a bit more action this morning. Manufacturing PMI is due from the UK today followed by ISM Manufacturing PMI from the States this afternoon. A busy week for data finishes with US Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday and although this is an extremely important set of figures most of the time, it’s arguably even more important this time around with such uncertainty surrounding the timing of Fed lift-off.
We expect a range today in the GBP/USD rate of 1.5360 to 1.5420
: EUR/USD was steady throughout much of the day yesterday. Month end readjustments saw the pair fall to a low of 1.1179 on Monday despite the release of better than expected German Retail Sales data – July turnover was 1.4% higher than in June. The single currency is pushing higher this morning however and it opens in London at 1.1310. Data from the Eurozone this morning has been good so far; manufacturing PMIs have been generally positive but in line with market expectations and German and Italian unemployment data have both printed better than expected. GBP/EUR has fallen owing to this euro strength and it trades at 1.3580 currently, this after looking like it might break upwards through 1.38 on Monday.
We expect a range today in the GBP/EUR rate of 1.3510 to 1.3645
⇒ view full report Charts : EUR/USD EUR/AUD EUR/JPY EUR/CHF EUR/CAD EUR/CNY
: The RBA announced overnight that they would be leaving interest rates on hold at 2.00%. It wasn’t a surprise but it was a touch surprising that their language on China didn’t change all that much. In fact, the statement pretty much shrugged off the recent turmoil in China and with this the aussie dollar gained a few points, pushing off of the .7100 big figure to a high of .7144. It has slipped back again on London opening and trades at .7092 currently. Meanwhile, the NZD is licking its wounds a bit this morning after being whacked lower this time yesterday. The gradual unwinding of carry trade positions has hit the kiwi hard over the last week or so and it is lower against a range of currencies including the pound – GBP/NZD trades at 2.4185 currently.
We expect a range today in the GBP/AUD rate of 2.1590 to 2.1850
We expect a range today in the GBP/NZD rate of 2.4100 to 2.4380
⇒ view full report
Volatility ran riot through stocks and currency markets on Tuesday prompting a flight to haven assets as investors responded to another string of softer than anticipated Chinese macroeconomic indicators and pared expectations as to the timing of a Federal Reserve rate hike. The US dollar enjoyed a mixed session advancing against emerging market and commodity driven currency pairs after Chinese Manufacturing contracted at its fastest pace in three years while the services sector also eased. Concerns as to the true scope and size of China’s economic slowdown continue to weigh on the global outlook raising the question - Can the Fed adjust rates in the current environment?  The World’s largest Central Bank continues to promote mixed and conflicting messages clouding markets expectations. New York Fed president Bill Dudley appears to be leaning toward maintaining the current status quo while Federal Reserve Vice President Stanley Fisher suggested that a gradual increase in borrowing cost was appropriate, when speaking at the Jackson Hole Monetary Policy Symposium at the weekend. This uncertainty is driving Greenback direction and leaving the currency vulnerable to risk swings with investors looking to the safe haven Yen and Swiss Franc and lower yielding Euro as they unwind long positions. The Yen touched a one week high overnight while the Euro jumped 0.5% to open at 1.1317 this morning.
Data releases:
GDP q/q
NZD: GDT Price Index and ANZ Commodity Prices m/m
Monetary Base y/y
GBP: Construction PMI
⇒ view full report Charts : USD/EUR EUR/USD USD/JPY

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Protect your International Currency Transfer from Events like ‘Black Monday’ with Risk Management Strategies Just as financial markets began to recover from months of ‘Grexit’ fears and investors started focusing on rate hike speculation again, there was another asset-shaking shift in the form of ‘Black Monday’. The state of China’s economy and the slowing pace… Continue reading
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