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Tuesday, 21 October 2014 - Market Commentary
Daily currency news provided by UkForex

: GBP/USD - The dollar retreated further through Monday's sessions as optimism of a US rate rise in Mid-2015 waned. In an interview with Bloomberg on 17th Oct, the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren stated conditions were right for the Fed to end QE after its Oct 28-29th meeting however he then added the program could be extended if there is additional erosion in the outlook for economic growth. In other words if there is a continuation of data, as there was last week, showing the US recovery is not as sustained as markets thought then a rate rise will be delayed. These expectations combined with improvements to risk sentiment as global stocks recovered saw GBP/USD climb from an opening price of 1.61 to just below 1.6180. Overnight the pair has held above 1.6150 and we open today at 1.6160 Looking ahead the main prints are due tomorrow with the Bank of England Minutes along with US CPI figures however today we have UK Pubic Sector Net Borrowing for September, which is expected to show a fall to £9.2Bn vs the previous months £10.883Bn, plus MoM US Existing Home sales data for September.
We expect a range today in the GBP/USD rate of 1.6125 - 1.6205
⇒ view full report Charts : GBP/USD GBP/EUR GBP/AUD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF GBP/CAD GBP/CNY
: GBP/EUR traded a relatively flat range yesterday hovering between 1.2610 and 1.2650. The markets opened with annualised German Producer Price Index numbers coming in as expected at -1% while Italian Industrial Orders faltered. With the main focus being on tomorrows BoE Monetary Policy Committee Minute GBP/EUR seems to be holding around the 1.2630 mark. Todays only news of note is UK Public Sector Net Borrowing for September so volatility may again be low. As mentioned in yesterday’s commentary we await to see if the MPC minutes show its members are dovish for the potential of an interest rate hike during the first part of next year. The fact that the minutes are from their meeting on 9th October and do not incorporate the recent falls in UK CPI or the downgrades in Eurozone growth could mean the dovish sentiment does not transpire. We open today with GBP/EUR at 1.2595.
EUR/USD found support as improvements to risk sentiment and a recovery in global stocks saw the dollars gains falter. With very little data yesterdays movements traded mainly off the back of risk appetite and as such EUR/USD rose from an opening price of 1.2750 to above 1.28. Today there again very little data with only the 2nd tier release of US Home sales figures before attention shifts to tomorrow US CPI readings and a host of European Service and Manufacturing PMI figures due on Thursday. We open today with EUR/USD at 1.2835.
⇒ view full report Charts : EUR/USD EUR/AUD EUR/JPY EUR/CHF EUR/CAD EUR/CNY
We expect a range today in the GBP/EUR rate of 1.2575 to 1.2650
: Overnights better than expected Chinese GDP and Industrial Productions numbers have helped the higher yielding AUD and NZD gain against both the US dollar and Sterling. Annualised Chinese GDP numbers came in at 7.3% vs 7.2% exp, while Industrial Production posted a reading of 8% vs 7.5% exp. The RBA also released its October minutes in which it stated its current monetary policy stance is appropriate for fostering growth and most prudent course is likely to be a period of stability for rates. Both the commodity linked currencies were sold ahead of the release but the good numbers saw AUD/USD climb to 0.8820 while NZD/USD rose to 0.8008. The Aussie and Kiwi gained roughly a cent each versus sterling and we open today with GBP/AUD at 1.8340 and GBP/NZD at 2.0210. This morning the deputy governor of the RBA, Philip Lowe, is giving a speech however it will most likely reiterate the RBA minutes overnight.
We expect a range today in the GBP/AUD rate of 1.8290 to 1.8390
⇒ view full report
The U.S. Dollar fell against the Yen through trade on Tuesday as futures traders adjusted bets the Fed will raise rates before October 2015. Expectations of a rate hike have fallen to 46% a remarkable reversal given 51% of analyst predicted an October rate hike at the end of last week. Stronger than expected existing home sales helped fuel Greenback support as the National Association of Relators reported a 2.4% increase for the month of September. In other news the Euro is poised for a further downward correction as reports emerge the ECB is looking to add corporate bond purchases to its easing and stimulus measures as early as December. The Central Bank has this week begun its purchase of short dated government securities purchasing Italian, French and Spanish notes in a bid to boost bank lending and stave off deflation. The Euro has fallen against the majority of its 16 major currency counterparts and with global growth prospects driving direction investors will be keenly focused on manufacturing numbers Thursday. Today attentions turns to US inflation data for further directional impetus.  
Data releases
CPI and Trimmed Mean CPI, CB Leading Index and MI Leading Index
NZD No Data
Trade Balance
GBP MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes, MPC Official Bank Rate Votes, MPC Member Weale Speaks.
⇒ view full report Charts : USD/EUR EUR/USD USD/JPY

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