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Monday, 30 November 2015 - Market Commentary
Daily currency news provided by UkForex

: The dollar was stronger on Friday as month end flows dominated trading activity. Trading conditions were also relatively thin on the day as most American markets were still quiet following Thanksgiving on Thursday. Second estimate UK GDP was released on Friday and printed in line with market expectations at 0.5%. Although it came in as expected, investors didn’t much like the number and GBP/USD fell to 1.5030. It lost more ground overnight and dropped to 1.5022 and opens in London close to this level this morning. It’s a big week this week with a series of UK PMIs due early on and a speech by BoE Governor Carney on Tuesday. From the U.S. we are due ADP employment data on Wednesday and Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday. Meanwhile Fed Chair Yellen is due to speak on Wednesday and Thursday. The most important and potentially volatile day however will be Thursday when the ECB are expected to announce further monetary policy measures.
We expect a range today in the GBP/USD rate of 1.4960 to 1.5110
: EUR/USD traded a fairly narrow range on Friday. It trended lower in the morning as the dollar was will bid, falling to a low of 1.0568. It then pushed back through the New York session and made it back through 1.06. It’s on the back foot again this morning however and opens at 1.0575. As eluded to above it could be a defining week for the single currency this week with the ECB set to announce a host of monetary policy measures to try and get the European economy and inflation back on track. ECB President Draghi will also take to the stage and is hardly expected to sound anything but dovish. That said, extra measures and dovish rhetoric is already priced in and so it might not be a complete surprise to see the euro bounce. Either way, we’re bound to see volatility ensue on Thursday.
We expect a range today in the GBP/EUR rate of 1.4120 to 1.4245
⇒ view full report Charts : EUR/USD EUR/AUD EUR/JPY EUR/CHF EUR/CAD EUR/CNY
: Both AUD/USD and NZD/USD got off to a bad start overnight as metal and commodities were pummelled lower. Asian share markets were also sold off overnight, continuing the trend that we saw on Friday. As risk sentiment waned, so did AUD and NZD and they fell to respective lows of .6508 and .7167 vs. the US dollar. Both have recovered since though and trade at .7184 and .6550 currently. Better than expected Australian data by way of Private Sector Credit and Company Operating Profits has helped the aussie dollar. A bit of profit taking too has help the kiwi recover.
We expect a range today in the GBP/AUD rate of 2.0750 to 2.0950
We expect a range today in the GBP/NZD rate of 2.2800 to 2.3020
⇒ view full report
The Euro moved through 8 month lows on Friday breaking and closing below 1.06 as investors position themselves ahead a make or break week for central bank policy expectations. The 19 nation shared unit came under continued pressure as analysts and investors prepare for an expansion in the ECB’s quantitative easing program. ECB officials are set to deliver a policy update on Thursday wherein it is widely expected they will announce further cuts to deposit rates and an increase in the monthly bond buying package. The Greenback moved to 5 year highs against the Swiss Franc and 8 month highs against a basket of currencies as analysts look to Friday’s non-farm payroll print for further evidence of recovery and a marker to cement a Fed policy update later this month. Most investors expect the FOMC will raise rates when it meets in 2 weeks’ time strengthening demand for USD longs and bullish bets. The divergence in monetary policy saw the CHF tumbled on suggestions the Swiss National Bank will cut its already negative deposit rates further in a bid to combat ECB policy moves and protect the CHF and Swiss trade. Attentions today turn to mid-level housing data and German domestic retail sales for direction through Monday with trader’s primary focus directed toward Thursday’s ECB policy statement and Friday’s Labour Market data as the chief markers of long term direction.
Data releases:
MI Inflation Gauge, HIA New Home Sales, Company Operating Profits and Private Sector Credit.
NZD: Building Consents and ANZ Business Confidence
Retail Sales, Prelim Industrial Production and Housing Starts
GBP: Net Lending to Individuals, M4 Money Supply and Mortgage Approvals
⇒ view full report Charts : USD/EUR EUR/USD USD/JPY

BER Notebook - FX Market Research & Currency News/Views from our Partners View Latest >>

OzForex Research
Major Currency Pair Movements Last Week: EUR/USD - Extended its previous week’s losses. USD/JPY - Showed little change. GBP/USD - Extended its previous week’s losses. AUD/USD - Reversed direction, declining a fraction. USD/CAD - Extended its previous week’s gains. NZD/USD - Declined last week. Continue reading
Posted on 30 November 2015 | 3:13 am
WorldFirst Research
All falling into place And so starts a very interesting week for China, the Eurozone, the United States and currency markets as a whole as we wait on some particularly interesting policy. China will find out today whether the IMF deems the yuan suitable enough to become part of its Special Drawing Rights, Thursday is… Continue reading
Posted on 30 November 2015 | 2:57 am
WorldFirst Research
China to join an elite club As we come to the end of the week, G10 markets are rather quiet with Thanksgiving bloat making itself felt at Friday’s open. With little to focus on within developed economies, most currency pairs are happily trading sideways. Next week is a very interesting one from a currency perspective.… Continue reading
Posted on 27 November 2015 | 2:10 am
Money Exchange TV
Posted on 26 November 2015 | 6:39 am
WorldFirst Research
Osborne uses some slack to smooth the path Yesterday’s Comprehensive Spending Review and Autumn Statement from Chancellor George Osborne was a non-event for currency markets. Osborne’s ability to be able to smooth out spending cuts in the short term whilst still maintaining projections of a budget surplus in 2019/20 has come from a forecasted improvement… Continue reading
Posted on 26 November 2015 | 1:46 am
WorldFirst Research
Only one story dominated markets yesterday and it wasn’t the pontificating of Monetary Policy Committee members on interest rates and the state of the UK economy. The news that a Russian jet had been downed by Turkish forces set markets on edge and hyped up fears that the mishmash of coalition forces, the Free Syrian… Continue reading
Posted on 25 November 2015 | 6:30 am

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