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Thursday, 02 October 2014 - Market Commentary
Daily currency news provided by UkForex

: GBP/USD still trades within its usual range. It started off on the back foot yesterday morning, this following the release of weaker than expected Manufacturing PMI which printed at 51.6 vs. expectations for 52.6. The dollar was also broadly stronger but it slowly shed these gains come the afternoon as US economic data came in slightly weaker than expected; Final Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing PMI and Construction Spending all came in under market expectations. The better than expected ADP Non-Farm Employment failed to prevent the dollar losing ground as GBP/USD topped out at 1.6248. The pair then dropped back again as the New York session came to a close and touched on 1.6248 again overnight. It has found that 1.6250 level too difficult a level to break so far. In other news, Bank of England MPC member Kristin Forbes made a speech yesterday evening and said “Sterling’s past moves have reduced the risk of inflation increasing sharply, despite the strong growth in employment and the overall economy,” and went on to say “but as these calming effects on inflation gradually dissipate, it will become even more important to monitor prospective signs of domestic price pressures to avoid the troublesome inflation sprite.” The comments haven’t had a huge impact on the pound but are pertinent to future direction of BoE monetary policy. GBP/USD opens this morning at 1.6190. UK Construction PMI is due today but most of the market’s attention will be on the ECB’s monetary policy decision early this afternoon.
We expect a range today in the GBP/USD rate of 1.6100 to 1.6265
: EUR/USD has been fairly steady during the last 24 hours. It has slowly appreciated and touched on a high of 1.2674 overnight. Traders have understandably been reluctant to do much ahead of today’s ECB monetary policy announcement and accompanying press conference. The consensus feeling is that the central bank will not make any further changes to monetary policy this time around, but do expect ECB President Draghi to leave the door open for further easing in the months ahead. Mario was speaking in Naples yesterday too and unsurprisingly sounded dovish saying “it sometimes seems as though just as we defeat one challenge, such as the sovereign debt crisis, two new challenges spring up, such as low inflation and a weak recovery”. EUR/USD opens this morning at 1.2630 and GBP/EUR remains above 1.28 for now at 1.2815.
We expect a range today in the GBP/EUR rate of 1.2760 to 1.2865
⇒ view full report Charts : EUR/USD EUR/AUD EUR/JPY EUR/CHF EUR/CAD EUR/CNY
: NZD/USD gapped higher from .7842 to .7925 overnight. There wasn’t any top tier NZ economic data released overnight and although there were cuts to forecasted Fonterra milk prices the kiwi actually rallied. Some large orders were triggered in NZD/USD and this supported the move higher. Moves in AUD/USD have been less wild but it has nonetheless made good gains overnight, topping out at .8815. Like other commodity currencies it is holding on to its gains this morning and trades at .8790 currently. A solid print in Australian building approvals data also gave the Aussie a boost. The two currencies are stronger vs. the pound too and GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD trade at 1.8425 and 2.0570 respectively.
We expect a range today in the GBP/AUD rate of 1.8360 to 1.8510
We expect a range today in the GBP/NZD rate of 2.0450 to 2.0630
⇒ view full report
Macro indicators released from the United States overnight fell short of expectation after an ISM Manufacturing PMI read of 56.6 fell short of the forecast number of 58.6. With the US Federal Reserve still on track to end their bond buying program this month, treasuries continued their upward trajectory whilst equities fell, having lost a staggering $200 billion in worth over the past three months.  In currency moves the Greenback pulled back when valued against the Yen lower this morning at 108.867 whilst the Euro lost 0.2 percent up against the world’s reserve currency after figures showed euro-area factories reduced prices by the most in more than year. Providing further headwinds for the 18-nation Euro an indicator of German Manufacturing also shrank, underpinning the mounting challenge the ECB faces in its efforts to spur growth. In what’s set to steal the limelight this evening ECB President Mario Draghi is expected to provide additional detail surrounding its bond program announced last month.  
Data releases
Trade Balance, Building Approvals m/m
NZD: GDT Price Index
Monetary Base y/y
GBP: Construction PM
⇒ view full report Charts : USD/EUR EUR/USD USD/JPY

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