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Wednesday, 22 October 2014 - Market Commentary
Daily currency news provided by UkForex

: GBP/USD - The dollar gained back some ground yesterday as better than expected home sales data supported the Greenback. The pair started the day shrugging off the weaker than expected UK public sector net borrow figures from September and traded a fairly tight 30 pip range between 1.6145 and 1.6175. It was at the top end of this range when US home sales numbers pulled the rug from underneath Sterling's feet. MoM Existing Home Sales for September posted 5.17M vs exp 5.10M while the month change improved by 2.4% vs exp 1%. As such GBP/USD fell through the afternoon and US sessions before finding support around the 1.6110 level. We now look ahead to todays key release of the Bank of England Minutes, from their 9th Oct meeting and US CPI numbers. As mentioned yesterday, the BoE minutes may be discounted due to the fact the minutes are from a meeting that took place before the recent falls in UK CPI or the downgrades in Eurozone growth. Later in the afternoon annualised US CPI is expected to show a slight fall from 1.7% to 1.6%. We open today with GBP/USD at 1.6070.
We expect a range today in the GBP/USD rate of 1.6030 to 1.6120
: GBP/EUR gained further yesterday as a report from Reuters surfaced that the ECB is considering buying corporate bonds. A spokesman for the ECB tried to quell the rumours by stating "The governing council has taken no such decision" but went onto to admit that the action has not been dismissed. While there are many problems to address before this happens the fact that it is one step away from Sovereign bond buying has weakened the Euros position. Sterling Euro therefore traded up almost a cent from an open of 1.26 to level off around 1.2670. As with yesterday no data is due from Europe so today the focus is on the BoE minutes while US CPI numbers could affect risk sentiment. We open today with GBP/EUR at 1.2660. EUR/USD - While the better than expect homes sales data from the US supported the dollar the damage was already done the as rumours of an ECB corporate bond buying program surfaced. Eurodollar fell by one and a quarter cents from an opening price of 1.2835 to 1.2710. With no data due from the Eurozone it will be up to US CPI numbers to provide direction. YoY US CPI is expected to contract from 1.7% to 1.6% so any higher than predicted falls could see US lose support however it is likely the dovish euro sentiment will continue. We open today EUR/USD at 1.2690.
We expect a range today in the GBP/EUR rate of 1.2620 to 1.2710
⇒ view full report Charts : EUR/USD EUR/AUD EUR/JPY EUR/CHF EUR/CAD EUR/CNY
: The better than expected Chinese GDP and Industrial Productions numbers helped the AUD and NZD enjoy buoyant trading through yesterdays sessions however the strong US home sales figures curtailed their gains. AUD/USD traded about 0.88 but soon fell finding support around 0.8770 following the US numbers. Similarly NZD/USD traded briefly above 0.80 before dropping to around 0.7970. Overnight YoY Australian CPI numbers came in as expected at 2.3% and with no data from New Zealand the higher yielding currencies seem range bound ahead of todays US inflation report. We open today with GBP/AUD at 1.8305 and GBP/NZD at 2.0170.
We expect a range today in the GBP/AUD rate of 1.8265 to 1.8355
We expect a range today in the GBP/NZD rate of 2.0160 to 2.0260
⇒ view full report
The Greenback rallied to a one week high against the majority of it major currency peers on Wednesday as CPI reports showed an unexpected increase in the overall cost of living. The report helped ease concerns the world’s largest economy may be stagnating in the face of flat global growth and assisted in closing the gap between market and Federal Reserve rate expectations. In other news the Euro slid to a one week low as reports suggest 11 major Eurozone banks will fail this weekend’s stress tests thus increasing concerns surrounding the overall stability of the 18 nation bloc economy. Key manufacturing data due today is expected to show a contraction for the first time in over a year heaping more pressure on the ECB to increase stimulus measures. The contrasting economic outlooks and Central Bank policies leave the Euro ripe for another dramatic downward correction especially as current Euro shorts are spread relatively thin within the futures market. Attentions turn to Euro, French and German Manufacturing PMI this evening for further directional guidance.
Data releases
RBA Governor Stevens Speaks and NAB Quarterly Business Confidence
Flash Manufacturing PMI
GBP MPC Member Broadbent Speaks, Retails Sales, BBA Mortgage Approvals and CBI Industrial Order Expectations.
⇒ view full report Charts : USD/EUR EUR/USD USD/JPY

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