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Friday, 30 January 2015 - Market Commentary
Daily currency news provided by UkForex

: The greenback strengthened yesterday and cable fell back under 1.51 to a low of 1.5034. Better than expected US Unemployment Claims supported the move. The data showed that claims decreased by 43,000 from the previous weeks revised level. The dust is also settling following the FOMC statement earlier in the week and there’s perhaps a realisation that the Fed’s monetary policy and outlook seems to be ever diverging away from that of other major central banks – whether this continues is debatable but we’re going on the Fed’s latest statement here. Focus today will turn to US Advance GDP. Economists expect the data will show the US economy produced solid growth of 3% in the October-December quarter – another reason for investors to hit the dollar bids. There isn’t much by way of top tier data from the UK. In the meantime, GBP/USD has recovered off of its 24 hour lows to open this morning at 1.5075.
We expect a range today in the GBP/USD rate of 1.5030 to 1.5150
: EUR/USD whipped around in the late afternoon session on Thursday and after pushing to a high of 1.1367 it then promptly lost almost 100 points in the space of a few hours, dropping to a low of 1.1278. There wasn’t anything majorly fundamental behind the move and it was more confined to intra-day traders keen to take profit after bidding the single currency higher throughout the day. Oddly, the weaker than expected German inflation numbers were shrugged off yesterday morning; confirmation of deflation within the Eurozone really doesn’t come as much of a surprise to markets at the moment. European wide CPI Flash Estimate may get a different reaction today of course, but as we head in to next week the usual headlines are likely to continue dominating; Grexit and ECB QE.
We expect a range today in the GBP/EUR rate of 1.3320 to 1.3340
⇒ view full report Charts : EUR/USD EUR/AUD EUR/JPY EUR/CHF EUR/CAD EUR/CNY
: The commodity currencies including AUD and NZD spiralled lower yesterday as speculation for an RBA rate cut at next Tuesday’s meeting intensified whilst the RBNZ’s dovish statement earlier in the week was still on people’s minds. A prominent Australian journalist with supposed close links to people at the RBA has said he’s ‘almost certain’ that the central bank would cut too. Markets are now close to pricing in a 70% chance of such an occurrence and so it wasn’t a surprise to see AUD/USD drop to a low of .7716 yesterday evening. NZD/USD shadowed the pair lower and fell to a low of .7230 but both have recovered a little to open this morning at .7775 and .7275 respectively.
We expect a range today in the GBP/AUD rate of 1.9290 to 1.9490
We expect a range today in the GBP/NZD rate of 2.0610 to 2.0840
⇒ view full report
The Euro was one of the few currencies which managed to hold its ground against the Greenback on Thursday despite German consumer price inflation turning negative. German CPI printed at -1 per cent just 7 days after the European Central bank released information of a 60 Billion Euro a month government bond program. It was the US dollar however which drew the spotlight once more as unemployment claims showed a substantially fewer amount of people applying for jobless benefits. The Greenback strengthened heavily across the board however the Euro managed to hold its ground opening this morning 1.1311. The US unemployment claims are sitting at levels not seen in over 14 years and these strong numbers lend to the idea of an interest rate increase occurring in the earlier months of the year. Heading into the weekend eyes will focus on the European CPI flash estimate while in US trade on GDP numbers.
Data releases: 
PPI q/q, Private Sector Credit m/m
Building Consents m/m, Visitor Arrivals m/m
Household Spending y/y, Tokyo Core CPI y/y, National Core CPI y/y, Unemployment rate, Prelim Industrial Production m/m, Housing Starts y/y
GfK Consumer Confidence, Net Lending to Individuals m/m, M4 Money Supply m/m, Mortgage Approvals
⇒ view full report Charts : USD/EUR EUR/USD USD/JPY

BER Notebook - FX Market Research & Currency News/Views from our Partners See more >>

Agility Forex
Well, what a week! I can’t remember seeing such sustained volatility in the markets for a long time. The over-riding theme remains the almighty dollar, currently at 6 year highs against the Loonie and 11 year highs against the Euro. Although everyone knew it was coming the sheer size of yesterday’s ECB QE announcement caused… Continue reading
Posted on 23 January 2015 | 8:26 pm
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Financial markets over the past year have been defined by diverging monetary policy settings with shifting rate expectations changing the dynamic of broader forex markets. Having initially traded up above the 94 US Cents mark as recently as September the Australian dollar has now lost more than 15 percent over the past four months a… Continue reading
Posted on 22 January 2015 | 7:06 pm
Agility Forex
Mario Draghi did not disappoint today when the ECB announced a QE programme to buy 60 Billion Euro in assets per month until September 2016 . The asset purchases will cover both private and public sector bonds and will begin in March 2015. European focus will now turn to the Greek election on Sunday. After… Continue reading
Posted on 21 January 2015 | 8:49 pm
OzForex Research
The Swiss National Bank gave us volatility on a historic scale last week as it rocked markets by abandoning the nearly three-year-old policy of supporting the value of the Swiss franc relative to the euro at 1.20. The Swiss franc consequently appreciated sharply across the board, distorting flows and liquidity market-wide. While this took the… Continue reading
Posted on 19 January 2015 | 4:09 pm
Agility Forex
Throughout my years on Wall Street and to this day, one question has always bothered me. I have never got a good explanation as to why the price of crude oil and the strength of the USD move in negative correlation. I’ve heard many different arguments but none are foolproof. I’ve even read that there… Continue reading
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