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EUR 1.00 = CNY Mid-Rate       /
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Thursday, 21 August 2014 - Market Commentary
Daily currency news provided by UkForex

: The pound recovered on Wednesday morning after MPC minutes showed that 2 members voted for a rise in UK interest rates at the last monetary policy meeting. Most MPC members found that there weren’t sufficient inflation pressures to justify hiking interest rates just yet; this argument is now firmly backed by Tuesday’s consumer price index data. Most members also want to see more evidence of wage growth before raising rates, and so despite the surprise vote, the soft inflation data earlier in the week is dampening the positive impact on the pound. It will also, no doubt, send a confusing message to investors, households and business owners as to when to expect the next rate rise. The inflation figures indicate that this could happen next year, but these recent minutes might suggest it could be before the New Year. GBP/USD popped to a high of 1.6665 on the back of the news but then settled lower as the morning went on and in advance of the FOMC minutes. The minutes were a touch on the hawkish side showing that FOMC members saw progress in the labour market (although there were some disagreements over the amount of slack here) and a more normal acceleration in the rate of inflation. Although there is still no indication as to when exactly the Fed will consider raising interest rates, these minutes suggest the committee is at least getting a little closer to that point. It did of course provide a boost to the US dollar and GBP/USD slipped back below 1.66 - on to a low of 1.6565. UK retail sales data is due this morning but investors’ attention will be mostly focused on the Jackson Hole Symposium, at which point Fed Chair Yellen will make a speech.
We expect a range today in the GBP/USD rate of 1.6540 to 1.6660
⇒ view full report Charts : GBP/USD GBP/EUR GBP/AUD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF GBP/CAD GBP/CNY
: EUR/USD also continued to drift lower through the European session yesterday and then snapped lower again following the Fed minutes last night. The pair eventually fell to a low of 1.3242. A series of PMI’s have been released from Europe this morning and are providing some support to the single currency. French and German Services PMI’s as well as German Manufacturing PMI printed better than market forecasts and EUR/USD has bounced off of its low to open this morning at 1.3275. GBP/EUR has fallen back towards 1.25 as a result and trades at 1.25, having slipped around 20 points or so.
We expect a range today in the GBP/EUR rate of 1.2460 to 1.2525
⇒ view full report Charts : EUR/USD EUR/AUD EUR/JPY EUR/CHF EUR/CAD EUR/CNY
: Like most other currencies yesterday the Aussie and Kiwi dollars lost ground vs. the USD following the hawkish FOMC minutes. AUD/USD and NZD/USD fell to .9240 and .8343 respectively. HSBC China Flash Manufacturing PMI was also released overnight and came in weaker than market forecasts at 50.3, a 3 month low, and this piled further selling pressure on the Aussie dollar. Data from New Zealand was no better with ANZ consumer confidence for August coming in under forecasts and in fact printing negatively.
We expect a range today in the GBP/AUD rate of 1.7800 to 1.7980
We expect a range today in the GBP/NZD rate of 1.9710 to 1.9875
⇒ view full report
The Greenback surrendered recent gains yesterday as investors take stock ahead of the Jackson Hole Symposium and convergence of Central Bank heads today. Both Fed President Janet Yellen and ECB President Mario Draghi are due to address gathered officials in what investors have dubbed a key directional event. Wednesday’s Fed minutes inferred the U.S Central Bank has shifted toward a hawkish bias and Yellen’s speech is critical in affirming the change in stance. Dipping lower against most major counterparts markets largely ignored stable employment data and strong manufacturing numbers. By all rights the Dollar should have consolidated gains yesterday instead it has served to hone market focus and highlights the importance placed on today’s outcome. A hawkish Yellen tone should see the Greenback rally again gather pace. Euro found some support yesterday bouncing back from 11 month lows on stronger than expected German Private-sector growth and stable manufacturing. EUR/USD opens this morning at 1.3281 as focus turns to Jackson Hole and signs of furthering Central Bank divergence.
Data releases
Jackson Hole Symposium
NZD: No data today     
No data today
GBP: No data today
⇒ view full report Charts : USD/EUR EUR/USD USD/JPY

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