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Monday, 06 July 2015 - Market Commentary
Daily currency news provided by UkForex

: Friday saw supportive data for the UK as the closely followed Services PMI printed a better than expected 58.5, two points higher than the June release. Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit commented: “While uncertainty caused by the Greek debt crisis rules out any imminent hike in interest rates, the post-election rebound in service sector business activity adds to the likelihood of the Bank of England starting to nudge rates higher later this year. The survey data are indicating an acceleration of economic growth to 0.5% in the second quarter, up from 0.4% in the first three months of the year.” Cable traded as high as 1.5640 on Friday afternoon however it started to slip around lunchtime as uncertainty around the Greek referendum saw dollar bids. The US enjoyed a bank holiday on Friday for the 4th July weekend however New York traders will no doubt have a busy day as they return to their desks. This afternoon sees ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI from the States.
We expect a range today in the GBP/USD rate of 1.55 – 1.5640
: Alexis Tsipris’s Syriza government claimed victory in the Greek referendum as 61.3% voted “No” against further austerity with the “Yes” camp getting 38.7%. Opinion polls last week had seen the contest as being too close to call so the margin of victory was surprising to say the least. German Chancellor, Angela Merkel is meeting French President, Francois Hollande at an emergency summit in Paris today to discuss the situation before further negotiations with the Greek Syriza party take place later this week. Opinions between European politicians vary, some see the No vote as being the final nail in the coffin for Greece’s Euro membership while some others cut a more conciliatory tone. We should also hear today whether the ECB is prepared to provide any further emergency funding to Greek banks to stave off a possible collapse. Some estimate the banks only have enough cash to last another 24 hours so some sort of emergency measure is needed asap. Another interesting development has seen Syriza’s finance minister, Yanis Varoufakis leave his post after the election victory. The charismatic academic, turned politician was seen by many of the Troika as too confrontational, so the decision by him to step-down may be seen as a way of cooling tensions before discussions take place. Despite all the upheaval and uncertainty in Europe EUR/USD has regained the 1.10 handle after dropping during the Asian session and currently trades at 1.1055. GBP/EUR trades at 1.4070 after hitting 1.4130 overnight.
We expect a range today in the GBP/EUR rate of 1.3980 – 1.4160
⇒ view full report Charts : EUR/USD EUR/AUD EUR/JPY EUR/CHF EUR/CAD EUR/CNY
: The sell-off in the commodity currencies overnight has reversed as Europe came online earlier. The knee-jerk reaction to the Greek referendum saw AUD/USD drop to .7450 however the losses have been pared and it currently sits at .7490. NZD/USD sits at .6690 after dropping to .6650. Tonight sees the latest interest rate decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia with rates expected to be held at 2%, tonight also sees NZIER Business Confidence data from New Zealand. GBP/AUD trades at 2.0750 with GBP/NZD at 2.3250.
We expect a range today in the GBP/AUD rate of 2.0680 – 2.0845
We expect a range today in the GBP/NZD rate of 2.3180 – 2.3345
⇒ view full report
Following a dramatic start to the new week currency markets have stabilised overnight opening broadly unchanged as investors continue to cling to safety ahead of further Greek developments. Having already witnessed the initial plight into both the Yen and the USD, risk positioning still remains a key determinant of prices upon open this morning. Despite further warnings from France and Germany that Greece need to move quickly if they wish to restart financial aid talks, the ECB for the time being maintain a tight grip on Greek banks which have remained closed for week in an attempt to stem a run on deposits. With European leaders now due to meet this evening as part of their euro-summit, the ball is once in Tsipras’s court to see whether a serious and credible proposal can be put forward. In the wake of heightened uncertainty the EUR remains resilient as fears of broader contagion remain well in-check. Stronger against the Greenback this morning the EUR is currently trading at 1.1056.
Data releases
Cash Rate, RBA Rate Statement 
NZD: NZIER Business Confidence  
 No data today 
GBP: Manufacturing Production m/m, Halifax HPI m/m
⇒ view full report Charts : USD/EUR EUR/USD USD/JPY

BER Notebook - FX Market Research & Currency News/Views from our Partners See more >>

OzForex Research
Major Currency Pair Movements Last Week: EUR/USD - Reversed direction. USD/JPY - Gained last week. GBP/USD - Reversed direction. AUD/USD - Reversed direction. USD/CAD - Gained a fraction. NZD/USD - Extended its previous week’s losses. Continue reading
Posted on 29 June 2015 | 1:41 pm
Agility Forex
USDCAD Overnight Range 1.2307-1.2377 The Greek PM cries referendum, the Eurozone Finance ministers cry no extension and Greek citizens just cry. News that the Greek government implemented capital controls and shuttered banks until July 7th spooked FX markets in early Asian trading. A bout of risk aversion in a thin market saw EURUSD plunge to… Continue reading
Posted on 29 June 2015 | 11:44 am
OzForex Research
Major Currency Pair Movements Last Week: EUR/USD - Extended its gains. USD/JPY - Extended its previous week’s losses. GBP/USD - Continued its rally last week. AUD/USD - Extended its previous week’s gains. USD/CAD - Continued its decline. NZD/USD - Continued selling off last week. Continue reading
Posted on 22 June 2015 | 1:53 pm
OzForex Research
Major Currency Pair Movements Last Week: EUR/USD - Extended its gains last week. USD/JPY - Reversed direction. GBP/USD - Gained ground. AUD/USD - Extended its previous week’s gains. USD/CAD - Extended its previous week’s losses. NZD/USD - Lost a fraction last week. Continue reading
Posted on 10 May 2015 | 7:17 pm
Agility Forex
USDCAD Overnight Range 1.2048-1.2142 The highly anticipated US (and Canadian) employment reports were greeted with a resounding “meh”. NFP was right on consensus and the unemployment rate is 5.4%. EURUSD rose and fell and is currently back to its pre-release level. The Canadian report was worse than expected, which was actually expected, shedding 19,700 jobs.… Continue reading
Posted on 8 May 2015 | 6:37 am

Why is it that when I go into a currency vendor to send money I never get the rate on the news?

You may well think that you are being ripped off, but it is not always the case. In simple terms what you see on the news or in the paper or on yahoo finance is the Middle Rate or mid-rate. Some people want to buy a currency and some people want to sell a currency and there is a gap (or margin) between the price at which you buy and the price at which you sell. ⇒ read article

What makes sending money internationally so expensive?

There are a number of cost components to making and receiving international payments, most of which are far from transparent to customers: Currency fees, Transit fees, Correspondent bank fees etc ⇒ read article

Advertised Foreign Transfer Exchange Rate - Accuracy Checks

Investigating reports that the exchange rates for International Money Transfers published by Financial Institutions on their websites are better than those available to their customers via Internet Banking. We will publish periodic Exchange Rate Accuracy checks here.⇒ read article

BestExchangeRates in the Press Money

“A check with the foreign-exchange comparison website shows a big variation in the exchange rates available when sending money and buying cash.” ⇒ read article

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