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Monday, 22 September 2014 - Market Commentary
Daily currency news provided by UkForex

: Overall, the pound’s reaction to the Scottish ‘no’ vote was fairly muted. It traded to a high of 1.6515 vs. the USD early on Friday morning but then drifted lower throughout the day. Although the initial reaction was positive, investors “sold the fact”, this after “buying the rumour” throughout the day on Thursday. Things should start returning to normal now as markets turn their attention back to UK economic data and the Bank of England’s monetary policy outlook. Moreover investors will be closely scrutinising any divergence between Fed and BoE monetary policy over coming weeks. If data continues to show signs of improvement, it brings with it the stronger possibility of a rate hike early next year and this in turn could see GBP/USD push back towards 1.65 in the near-term. There isn’t a lot of data due this week – US New Home Sales, Durable Goods Orders and Unemployment Claims will be the key releases over the next five days.
We expect a range today in the GBP/USD rate of 1.6290 to 1.6365
: EUR/USD also drifted lower on Friday dropping from 1.2894 to a low of 1.2822. After the Scottish referendum, attention is now re-focusing back on what the ECB will do next in terms of monetary policy – there is some concern after the TLTRO failed to live up to expectations last week. The central bank made €400 million available as loans to banks at a rate of 0.15% but the take up was poor; 255 banks took part and borrowed only €82.6bn. There may be a few questions asked of ECB President Mario Draghi about this today as he testifies on monetary policy before the European Parliament’s Economic and Monetary Committee. Later in the week Services and Manufacturing PMIs are released from Europe. Meanwhile last week there was some volatility in the GBP/EUR cross – it topped out just above 1.28 but has since settled lower to open this morning at 1.2715.
We expect a range today in the GBP/EUR rate of 1.2690 to 1.2750
⇒ view full report Charts : EUR/USD EUR/AUD EUR/JPY EUR/CHF EUR/CAD EUR/CNY
: The National Party were re-elected in New Zealand’s elections over the weekend. John Key remains as Prime Minister and it didn’t come as too much of a surprise to financial markets. NZD/USD bounced 25 points as markets opened in Wellington but it has since fallen lower to open in London at .8120. AUD/USD has continued to fall in the last 12 hours or so, dragged lower in some degree by the fall in the value of the euro. There isn’t a great deal of economic data due from Australia this week – RBA Governor Stevens is due to speak on Thursday whilst Chinese HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI on Tuesday may also exert some influence over the currency.
We expect a range today in the GBP/AUD rate of 1.8300 to 1.8440
We expect a range today in the GBP/NZD rate of 2.0050 to 2.0220
⇒ view full report
A combination of poor Eurozone data and US dollar momentum saw the Euro lose nearly a cent during the back end of last the week against the Greenback. The Euro fell sharply after German PPI numbers were flat which remains substantially under ECB expectations. In Europe on Monday ECB president Draghi’s speech in relation to monetary controls will be watched closely as the recent decline in interest rates and new stimulus measures will be of the highest importance to the European economic recovery. The US fed continued to talk this week about what needs to be done to help with the economic recovery and investors were assured interest rates will remain on hold for a considerable time. An array of US data will be the focus this coming week as fed chair Yellen has made it perfectly clear economic numbers need to improve. 
Data releases: 
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Consumer Sentiment
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⇒ view full report Charts : USD/EUR EUR/USD USD/JPY

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