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Thursday, 31 July 2014 - Market Commentary
Daily currency news provided by OzForex

The Australian dollar opens lower this morning as strong US data triggered a Greenback rally. The Aussie maintained a tight trading range for much of yesterday’s Australasian session as markets held positions reluctant to move ahead of key US risk events. Gross Domestic Product figures revealed the world largest economy grew 4% in the 2nd quarter and the AUD was driven immediately lower only pared by a dovish Federal Reserve statement. Having touched an intraday low of 0.9302 the Aussie opens markedly lower this morning trading at 0.9329 with attentions now turning to Building Approvals as the big ticket domestic item ahead of US Non-Farm Payroll numbers Friday as the drivers of direction into the weekend.
We expect a range today between 0.9260 – 0.9400
Cable opens lower this morning as Sterling suffers at the hands of a USD rally. The British economic docket has been relatively quiet for much of the week with investor direction driven by the surfeit of US data events. Strong US GDP numbers surprised markets comfortably beating the 3% mean forecast and showed the economy grew some 4% in the second quarter to June. Driven lower on expectations the Federal Reserve will use the string of positive data to adopt a more hawkish tone the Pound touched a session low of 1.6889 before loses were pared and trading levelled out as Janet Yellen and the FOMC maintained their Dovish stance. Attentions now turn to Manufacturing PMI Friday as the key domestic item steering direction with US employment data the final risk event moving into the weekend.
We expect a range today between 1.8010 – 1.8210
The New Zealand dollars downward march continued yesterday as strong US data solidified recent Greenback gains. In the absence of any headline domestic data the Kiwi was at the mercy of international drivers. Robust US GDP numbers and stable prelim employment growth helped fuel a USD rally sending the NZD to a session and seven week low of 0.8462 before loses were pared by a dovish Federal Reserve statement. Fed officials cited continuing concerns over slack in the labour market reiterating the need to maintain current interest rates for a “considerable time” comments that halted the Greenback advance. Attention now turns to Friday’s US Non-Farm Payroll numbers as the glut of US data continues to flood the market.
We expect a range today between 0.8410 – 0.8610
The Dollar’s rise continues as advanced GDP figures showed the US economy grew four percent in the second quarter to June. Comfortably above average forecasts the strong reading surprised investors triggering a Greenback rally with the world’s base currency advancing against all but a few major peers. Supported by a sturdy preliminary non-farm payroll report that suggests the economy will add some 200,000+ jobs when official number hit the docket Friday the string of positive data underpins the strength of economic recovery. The rally was however pared by a dovish Federal Open Market Committee Statement wherein Fed officials cited concerns over slack in the labour market while reiterating that interest rates will remain unchanged for a “considerable time”. In other news the Euro broke below 1.3400 as German inflation data disappointed investors compounding fears Europe’s largest economy is stagnating. The 18 nation bloc’s unit traded to an intraday low of 1.3366 and opens this morning under the guise of further downward pressure as investor focus is directed to Core CPI this evening ahead of US non-farm payroll numbers Friday. Soft European inflation and a strong US jobs report could see the EUR/USD move close to a weekly close near 1.3200.
Data releases
Building Approvals, Import Prices and Private Sector Credit
NZD: No Data
Average Cash Earnings and Housing starts
GBP: Nationwide HPI m/m

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