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Wednesday, 28 January 2015 - Market Commentary
Daily currency news provided by OzForex

The Australian dollar has recouped some of the losses suffered into the close of trade last week and in early trade Monday holding above 0.79 throughout Tuesday. A slightly stronger than expected NAB business confidence report helped add some support although offered little to suggest local business expects a significant upswing in market conditions. Softer than expected US durable goods orders helped the Aussie touch session highs of 0.7974 but any significant advance was hampered by falling copper prices as the precious metal neared 5 year lows on the London Metals Exchange. Attentions are keenly focused on today’s fourth quarter CPI report ahead of next week’s RBA meeting for local direction while the FOMC rate statement remains the big ticket item driving investors.
We expect a range today of 0.7810 – 0.8120
Charts : AUD/USD AUD/EUR AUD/GBP AUD/NZD AUD/JPY AUD/CHF AUD/CAD AUD/CNY
Sterling enjoyed a mixed session Tuesday edging lower throughout the domestic trade as fourth quarter GDP data missed the mark. The British economy expanded just 0.5% in the 3 months through December last year just below expectations at 0.6% and dragged annual growth down to 2.7%. Touching session lows of 1.5059 the Pound recovered all losses as a poor US durable goods report sparked fears the Federal Reserve will prolong monetary policy adjustments. Opening this morning at 1.5196 we look to the FOMC and Fed Rate Statement as the primary market event through trade on Wednesday.
We expect a range today of 1.8950 – 1.9350 
Charts : GBP/USD GBP/AUD GBP/EUR GBP/NZD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF GBP/CAD GBP/CNY
With little local macroeconomic data available to steer direction the New Zealand dollar was left to offshore data for guidance.  The Kiwi edged higher through North American trade as US durable goods orders fell 0.6% in December sparking concerns 4th quarter GDP will miss the mark and the US Federal reserve will adopt a cautious stance in light of slackening global growth prospects.  Attentions now turn to both local and international central banks as direction through Wednesday will be driven by the US Federal reserve and its rate statement while Thursday sees the RBNZ convene for the first time in 2015 and investors will look for any changes in monetary policy stance for the year ahead.  
We expect a range today of 0.7320 – 0.7580
Charts : NZD/USD NZD/EUR NZD/AUD NZD/XPF NZD/JPY NZD/CHF NZD/CAD NZD/CNY
The Greenback succumb to profit taking throughout trade on Tuesday as investors looked to lighten their positions in the wake of a poor durable goods order reading. Durable Goods purchases slipped 0.6% in December marking a second consecutive month of contraction and has some investors worried that Friday’s advanced GDP report will also miss the mark threatening expectations of a FOMC and Federal Reserve interest rate hike mid-year. USD losses were somewhat trimmed when consumer confidence report reached 7 year highs  and the FOMC entered day one of its 2 day meeting. The risk for the Greenback and US investors lies in the FOMC’s tone and stance as it addresses markets Wednesday. In light of current global conditions there is every possibility the Fed will err on the side of caution pushing out the timeline and expectations for a June rate hike. With a busy close to the week ahead we first look to the FOMC and its rate statement for direction through trade today with Euro CPI estimates Thursday and a US advanced GDP report Friday as the big ticket items steering direction.   
Data releases
MI leading Index m/m, CPI q/q and Trimmed mean CPI q/q
NZD No Data
No Data   
GBP: No Data
Charts : USD/EUR EUR/USD USD/JPY

BER Notebook - FX Market Research & Currency News/Views from our Partners See more >>

Agility Forex
Well, what a week! I can’t remember seeing such sustained volatility in the markets for a long time. The over-riding theme remains the almighty dollar, currently at 6 year highs against the Loonie and 11 year highs against the Euro. Although everyone knew it was coming the sheer size of yesterday’s ECB QE announcement caused… Continue reading
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Financial markets over the past year have been defined by diverging monetary policy settings with shifting rate expectations changing the dynamic of broader forex markets. Having initially traded up above the 94 US Cents mark as recently as September the Australian dollar has now lost more than 15 percent over the past four months a… Continue reading
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Mario Draghi did not disappoint today when the ECB announced a QE programme to buy 60 Billion Euro in assets per month until September 2016 . The asset purchases will cover both private and public sector bonds and will begin in March 2015. European focus will now turn to the Greek election on Sunday. After… Continue reading
Posted on 21 January 2015 | 8:49 pm
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The Swiss National Bank gave us volatility on a historic scale last week as it rocked markets by abandoning the nearly three-year-old policy of supporting the value of the Swiss franc relative to the euro at 1.20. The Swiss franc consequently appreciated sharply across the board, distorting flows and liquidity market-wide. While this took the… Continue reading
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Throughout my years on Wall Street and to this day, one question has always bothered me. I have never got a good explanation as to why the price of crude oil and the strength of the USD move in negative correlation. I’ve heard many different arguments but none are foolproof. I’ve even read that there… Continue reading
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