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Tuesday, 29 July 2014 - Market Commentary
Daily currency news provided by OzForex

The Australian Dollar ticked higher throughout trade on Monday touching session highs of 0.9413. With little driving price action the Aussie looked to offshore stimuli for direction and guidance finding support in strong profit readings across China’s industrial sector.  Industrial company takings rose some 17.9% suggesting the economic slowdown may have passed and consequently increasing the demand for Australian commodities, namely iron ore. Tuesday’s domestic economic calendar is again free of headline data with New Home Sales statistics spearheading local news while US consumer confidence will provide front line direction ahead of crucial US growth numbers Wednesday.
We expect a range today between 0.9350 – 0.9450
Sterling was relatively flat for much of trading on Monday touching session highs of 1.7001 before resistance sent the unit back toward todays open at 1.6981. With little domestic data available yesterday markets were hesitant in offering any firm direction ahead of the flood of US key risk events. It seems the puff may have run out of the bullish Sterling run as expectations of a slowdown in the pace of recovery begin to emerge. Analyst attention will now turn to Manufacturing PMI as the key domestic data event this week.
We expect a range today between 1.8010 – 1.8110 
The New Zealand Dollar failed to make significant inroads in recovering lasts week’s losses bouncing along within a 10 point range between 0.8544 and 0.8554 for much of trading Monday. Markets it seems are reassessing their stance on Kiwi positions as the future attractiveness of higher yields comes into question. Prime Minister John Key yesterday supported the RBNZ and said he too feels the NZD is overvalued adding further scope to a period of interest rate neutrality. Focus now turns to the Fonterra Group and its milk price forecast for 2014/15. Dairy is a key contributor to New Zealand’s overall commodity exports and any downward revision will likely signal a sharp reversal in Terms of Trade. A soft forecast may force the Kiwi lower as markets prepare for a glut of US data in the back half of this week.
We expect a range today between 0.8510 – 0.8610
The Greenback offered little to excite investors stagnating for much of the session with a slight easing bias against its Euro and Japanese counterparts. Price action was quiet across the board as investors prepare for a heavy docket filled with major risk events. The Federal Reserve is set to commence its two day monthly meeting today with GDP, unemployment and non-farm payroll numbers all due before weeks end. Strong readings mixed with a hawkish Fed tone will help solidify recent Dollar gains as markets continue to search for significant signals the world’s largest economy continues to recover. In other news Euro remains flat as investors watch key German inflation numbers due tomorrow. A soft reading coupled with positive US data will likely increase downward pressure on the 18 nation currency unit as its looks to new support levels below 1.34.
Data releases
HIA New Home Sales m/m
NZD: No Data
Household Spending y/y, Unemployment Rate and Retail Sales
GBP: Net Lending to Individuals m/m, M4 Money Supply and Mortgage Approvals

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