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Friday, 31 July 2015 - Market Commentary
Daily currency news provided by UsForex

: EUR/USD is weaker having traded to the top of its recent range and come near the top of the long term down trend dating from its June 2011 high up at 1.48 . We expect this to be a heavy resistance zone and we may see some choppy moves around this 1.3250 – 1.3350 range. Relative interest rates have provided for recent strength in EUR, and are likely to provide for further support ahead of next week’s FOMC given the focus on the Fed’s forward guidance thresholds. The ECB meeting two days later on August 1st will be a key focus as market participants look to Draghi for his reaction to both the improving outlook for Europe (PMI’s) and the implications of the recent strengthening in Euro.
We expect a range today of 1.3240 to 1.3290
: GBP/USD is weaker falling to near term support around 1.5370 – The pair has been trading in a narrow range all week, and we should see this move develop and give new direction coming into next week’s more data heavy calendar which will include on Thursday, the UK MPC minutes and interest rate decision, and on Friday the US non-farm payrolls numbers.
We expect a range today of 1.5330 to 1.5400
: With solid readings in GDP and personal consumption for the U.S. yesterday, we saw the USD make positive moves against its trading peers and though the overnight. Today was not the case with Canada’s GDP. May’s GDP printed worse than expected m/m and y/y at -0.2% and 0.5% respectively. US employment Cost Index for Q2 printed worse than expected as well at 0.2%. We still have the Chicago PMI at 9:45 and followed by the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment at 10am. The USD/CAD had a knee jerk rising up to a high of 1.3087 until retracing all of its gain this morning. It is a Canadian civic holiday on Monday therefore Canadian markets will be closed, the U.S. is open for business as per usual. The USD/CAD is currently trading at 1.2977.
We expect a range today of 1.2928 to 1.3043
: USD/JPY has seen significant weakness today, falling back below the 100 level. The Yen strength was caused by market perception of a “stronger” than expected CPI number, coming in at 0.2% vs 0.1% expected and indicating an increase of inflation in line with the BOJ policies. However, looking at the various components which make up this number we can see that the core drivers of inflation have come from higher energy prices and higher food costs – indicating “bad” cost push inflation, instead of “good” demand pull inflation (via increasing wages). This is not a good sign for the long term health of Japanese companies or the economy.
We expect a range today of 98.00 to 98.60
The U.S Dollar closed lower Friday falling against a basket of major currency counterparts after increases in employment costs failed to meet market expectations. A record low increase in labour costs in the second quarter coupled with a decline in consumer sentiment dampened expectations consumers will drive inflation and suggests the labour market is still short of running at full capacity. The soft print hampered interest rate bets and suggestions the Federal Reserve will amend its accommodative monetary policy stance come September and forced the Dollar index downward. The world’s base currency then found support in stronger than anticipated Chicago factory activity while Fed member Jimmy Bullard suggested the FOMC was “in a good position to make the first normalisation move”. The comments helped put the brakes on shorting of USD long bets and positions stabilised into the close.  
The Euro recouped much of the week’s early losses through Friday bolstered by stronger than anticipated inflation data. Core European Monetary Union (EMU) CPI data printed above market estimates and fuelled a an upward rally paring losses and touching intraday highs of 1.1088 before edging back below 1.10 to close the session.
With a series of headline data events in the week ahead attentions will be primarily focused on Today’s PCE price index measure of inflation and Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll print, wherein a strong read will likely trigger a bullish run and solidify expectations of a 2015 rate hike.
Data releases:
AIG Manufacturing Index, MI Inflation Gauge, HIA New Home Sales and ANZ Job Advertisements
NZD: No Data

BER Notebook - FX Market Research & Currency News/Views from our Partners See more >>

OzForex Research
Major Currency Pair Movements Last Week: EUR/USD - Reversed direction last week. USD/JPY - Lost a fraction. GBP/USD - Declined last week. AUD/USD - Continued its decline. USD/CAD - Extended its previous week’s gains. NZD/USD - Reversed direction, gaining ground last wee. Continue reading
Posted on 27 July 2015 | 1:26 am
BER Team
Overnight Range 1.3020-1.3103 USDCAD took off like a viral video when early New York/Toronto traders found their desks. One look at the overnight FX markets was enough for traders to pull the Loonie from the sidelines and put it in the game. USDCAD grabbed the ball and took off, streaking down field, touching 1.3103 from… Continue reading
Posted on 24 July 2015 | 1:49 am
OzForex Research
Major Currency Pair Movements Last Week: EUR/USD - Traded sharply lower last week. USD/JPY - Gained ground last week. GBP/USD - Gained ground last week. AUD/USD - Extended its previous week’s losses. USD/CAD - Continued its sharp rally. NZD/USD - Resumed its downtrend last week. Continue reading
Posted on 20 July 2015 | 2:29 am
Agility Forex
USDCAD Overnight Range 1.2307-1.2377 USDCAD popped higher in early New York trading when traders returning from their long weekend took note of WTI prices pushing through the 38.2% Fibonacci level of the March-June range ($54.44) and trading at $54.22.Wti has since bounced back to $54.60/bbl but the Loonie has ignored the move. Last week’s reports… Continue reading
Posted on 6 July 2015 | 2:21 am
OzForex Research
Major Currency Pair Movements Last Week: EUR/USD - Reversed direction. USD/JPY - Gained last week. GBP/USD - Reversed direction. AUD/USD - Reversed direction. USD/CAD - Gained a fraction. NZD/USD - Extended its previous week’s losses. Continue reading
Posted on 29 June 2015 | 1:41 pm

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