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: EUR/USD is weaker having traded to the top of its recent range and come near the top of the long term down trend dating from its June 2011 high up at 1.48 . We expect this to be a heavy resistance zone and we may see some choppy moves around this 1.3250 – 1.3350 range. Relative interest rates have provided for recent strength in EUR, and are likely to provide for further support ahead of next week’s FOMC given the focus on the Fed’s forward guidance thresholds. The ECB meeting two days later on August 1st will be a key focus as market participants look to Draghi for his reaction to both the improving outlook for Europe (PMI’s) and the implications of the recent strengthening in Euro. We expect a range today of 1.3240 to 1.3290 Charts :EUR/USDUSD/EUR
: GBP/USD is weaker falling to near term support around 1.5370 – The pair has been trading in a narrow range all week, and we should see this move develop and give new direction coming into next week’s more data heavy calendar which will include on Thursday, the UK MPC minutes and interest rate decision, and on Friday the US non-farm payrolls numbers. We expect a range today of 1.5330 to 1.5400 Charts :GBP/USDUSD/GBP
: Today’s FOMC announcement and press conference should prove interesting. It appears the market has priced in an 80% chance that “considerable time” will be removed along with growth forecasts being revised higher. If this is the case we will see the US drive higher and challenge 1.1700. My hunch is that the FOMC will choose to punt the turn from neutral to hawkish out to the New Year as they do not feel the pressure of inflation and will justify holding neutral with the risk of contagion from other struggling economies affecting the US economic recovery. Canadian Wholesale Sales disappointed as they dropped further than anticipated to 0.1% from 1.8%. Headline US CPI dropped from 0.0% to -0.3% while the Core figure dropped from 0.2% to 0.1%. The Loonie continues to be under pressure as soft domestic data and downward oil prices give little reason to take a long position. We expect a range today of 1.1585 to 1.1710 Charts :USD/CADCAD/USD
: USD/JPY has seen significant weakness today, falling back below the 100 level. The Yen strength was caused by market perception of a “stronger” than expected CPI number, coming in at 0.2% vs 0.1% expected and indicating an increase of inflation in line with the BOJ policies. However, looking at the various components which make up this number we can see that the core drivers of inflation have come from higher energy prices and higher food costs – indicating “bad” cost push inflation, instead of “good” demand pull inflation (via increasing wages). This is not a good sign for the long term health of Japanese companies or the economy. We expect a range today of 98.00 to 98.60 Charts :USD/JPYJPY/USD
The Euro was hit hard overnight losing over 150 points to its US counterpart as the US Federal Reserve took centre stage. The Inflationary figures out of Europe came in on forecast and the high impact nature of the US data being released shortly after left investors sitting on the fence waiting for guidance. The US Federal Reserve changed the language in their release, dropping the words “considerable time” and indicating the middle of next year as the time frame to an interest rate increase. The Fed mentioned they are pleased with how the US economy is progressing however inflation is still below the target 2 per cent band and there was room for further improvement. Tonight all eyes will continue to watch the US data releases with unemployment claims and manufacturing numbers to provide direction. Data releases: RBA Bulletin GDP q/q No Data Retail Sales m/m Charts :USD/EUREUR/USDUSD/JPY
Bloomberg Television interview with Michael Ward, CEO, North America and Europe for USForex on getting
the Best Exchange Rates when sending money abroad from the US plus his thoughts on what to look for when Buying Property Abroad and which global cities are popular right now.
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You may well think that you are being ripped off, but it is not always the case. In simple terms what you see on the news or in the paper or on yahoo finance
is the Middle Rate or mid-rate. Some people want to buy a currency and some people want to sell a currency and there is a gap (or margin) between the price at which you buy and
the price at which you sell. ⇒ read article
There are a number of cost components to making and receiving international payments, most of which are far from transparent to customers: Currency fees, Transit fees, Correspondent bank fees etc ⇒ read article
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