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Tuesday, 01 December 2015 - Market Commentary
Daily currency news provided by UsForex

: EUR/USD is weaker having traded to the top of its recent range and come near the top of the long term down trend dating from its June 2011 high up at 1.48 . We expect this to be a heavy resistance zone and we may see some choppy moves around this 1.3250 – 1.3350 range. Relative interest rates have provided for recent strength in EUR, and are likely to provide for further support ahead of next week’s FOMC given the focus on the Fed’s forward guidance thresholds. The ECB meeting two days later on August 1st will be a key focus as market participants look to Draghi for his reaction to both the improving outlook for Europe (PMI’s) and the implications of the recent strengthening in Euro.
We expect a range today of 1.3240 to 1.3290
: GBP/USD is weaker falling to near term support around 1.5370 – The pair has been trading in a narrow range all week, and we should see this move develop and give new direction coming into next week’s more data heavy calendar which will include on Thursday, the UK MPC minutes and interest rate decision, and on Friday the US non-farm payrolls numbers.
We expect a range today of 1.5330 to 1.5400
: Canadian GDP is a summary of monthly data so we do not anticipate surprises on the release. Canadian Q3 GDP data comes in at expectation of 2.3% but m/m GDP, which was expected at 1%, headlined at -0.5%. The Loonie tested the top of its overnight range against the greenback. US data will release later this morning starting at 9:45 with Final Manufacturing PMI forecasting for 52.6 and then at 10 am ISM Manufacturing PMI and Construction Spending are expected to release for 50.6 and 0.5% respectively. The IMF yesterday announces that it will be adding the Chinese Yuan to its SDR Special Drawing Rights basket of currency next October. This announcement on the yuan underlines the future direction of financial markets and China’s influence on global trade.
We expect a range today of 1.3322 to 1.3395
: USD/JPY has seen significant weakness today, falling back below the 100 level. The Yen strength was caused by market perception of a “stronger” than expected CPI number, coming in at 0.2% vs 0.1% expected and indicating an increase of inflation in line with the BOJ policies. However, looking at the various components which make up this number we can see that the core drivers of inflation have come from higher energy prices and higher food costs – indicating “bad” cost push inflation, instead of “good” demand pull inflation (via increasing wages). This is not a good sign for the long term health of Japanese companies or the economy.
We expect a range today of 98.00 to 98.60
The Greenback edged lower Tuesday after a decline in U.S manufacturing raised questions as to the timing and pace of a Fed rate adjustment and the speed of divergence between FOMC and ECB monetary policy. ISM manufacturing PMI contracted for the fifth consecutive month reaching its weakest point in six years dampening employment prospects and inflationary pressures. In contrast the European Monetary Union (EMU) enjoyed an upbeat macroeconomic docket bolstered by declining German and EMU unemployment rates and a continued expansion of the manufacturing sector. The Euro recouped losses suffered earlier this week rallying off near 8 month lows and breaking back above 1.06 to touch intraday highs at 1.0636. Attentions sit squarely with the ECB and Thursday’s policy announcement wherein there is still widespread expectation the Central bank will announce additional quantitative easing measures. The question is what is the ECB preferred medicine for an ailing and stagnant monetary union? Despite Tuesdays Euro rally the underlying bullish Greenback trend remains intact and we still anticipate a move to and through 1.05/1.0450 in the short to medium term with further moves toward parity possible moving through the New Year. Focus today turns to Fed Chair Janet Yellen as she discusses the U.S economic outlook in a Washington address while the ADP Non-Farm employment change report will offer an insight into Friday’s critical employment and labour market print.
Data releases:
RBA Governor Stevens Speaks and 3rd Quarter GDP
NZD: ANZ Commodity Prices m/m
Monetary Base y/y
GBP: Construction PMI

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