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Wednesday, 06 May 2015 - Market Commentary
Daily currency news provided by UsForex

: EUR/USD is weaker having traded to the top of its recent range and come near the top of the long term down trend dating from its June 2011 high up at 1.48 . We expect this to be a heavy resistance zone and we may see some choppy moves around this 1.3250 – 1.3350 range. Relative interest rates have provided for recent strength in EUR, and are likely to provide for further support ahead of next week’s FOMC given the focus on the Fed’s forward guidance thresholds. The ECB meeting two days later on August 1st will be a key focus as market participants look to Draghi for his reaction to both the improving outlook for Europe (PMI’s) and the implications of the recent strengthening in Euro.
We expect a range today of 1.3240 to 1.3290
Charts : EUR/USD USD/EUR
: GBP/USD is weaker falling to near term support around 1.5370 – The pair has been trading in a narrow range all week, and we should see this move develop and give new direction coming into next week’s more data heavy calendar which will include on Thursday, the UK MPC minutes and interest rate decision, and on Friday the US non-farm payrolls numbers.
We expect a range today of 1.5330 to 1.5400
Charts : GBP/USD USD/GBP
: Oil reaching a 5 month high of 62.05 (WTI) continues to weaken the Greenback overnight. We have observed a 35% rally in oil from the lows in March leading to much debate of how sustainable this is going forward. US ADP Nonfarm Employment change has not helped the Greenback’s woes showing 169K new jobs when the economists call was for 199K reading. Adding to the negative tone was the previous months reading corrected downward to 175K. Still to come this morning we have Janet Yellen participating in a panel discussion about finance, governance, and society at the Institute for Economic Thinking Conference in Washington DC. With no particular speech scheduled this may be a non-event yet the risk is always present when the head of the FOMC is speaking for the market to take a few words and run in one direction or the other. Canadian data is dominated by Ivey PMI being released at 10AM followed by Crude Oil inventories at 10:30. The PMI data is anticipated to move back into expanding territory with a reading of 50.1. Watch for this along with the positive move in oil continue to push USDCAD further into the 1.19’s we are observing following the ADP data.
We expect a range today of 1.1940 to 1.2060
Charts : USD/CAD CAD/USD
: USD/JPY has seen significant weakness today, falling back below the 100 level. The Yen strength was caused by market perception of a “stronger” than expected CPI number, coming in at 0.2% vs 0.1% expected and indicating an increase of inflation in line with the BOJ policies. However, looking at the various components which make up this number we can see that the core drivers of inflation have come from higher energy prices and higher food costs – indicating “bad” cost push inflation, instead of “good” demand pull inflation (via increasing wages). This is not a good sign for the long term health of Japanese companies or the economy.
We expect a range today of 98.00 to 98.60
Charts : USD/JPY JPY/USD
The U.S Dollars downward trajectory continued through trade on Wednesday as increasing European yields and soft data hampered demand for the world’s base currency. The ADP’s preliminary non-farm payroll print suggests just 169,000 jobs were added to the economy through April, a read well below expectations. The report throws into question analyst estimates for the final NFP print due Friday and reinforces expectations the Fed will retain its cautious outlook and delay an upward rate adjustment in the short term.
The Euro touched 10 week highs as German bund yields rose to 0.6 percent, the highest return in 5 months. The rally alleviates concerns yields would turn negative and narrows the gap between US and European bonds. The 19 nation bloc unit touched intraday highs of 1.1371 finding additional support in stronger than expected services PMI. The Service sectors of Spain, Italy, France and the wider Eurozone all expanded throughout April adding credence to the ECB’s stimulus measures.
Attentions now turn to the ever unfolding Greek debt crisis and the Friday’s NFP report for direction into the close.
Data releases:
AIG Construction Index, Employment Change and Unemployment Rate
NZD: No Data
Charts : USD/EUR EUR/USD USD/JPY

BER Notebook - FX Market Research & Currency News/Views from our Partners See more >>

OzForex Research
Major Currency Pair Movements Last Week: EUR/USD - Continued its rally last week. USD/JPY - Continued gaining. GBP/USD - Reversed direction. AUD/USD - Gained another fraction. USD/CAD - Lost a fraction. NZD/USD - Extended its previous week’s losses. Continue reading
Posted on 3 May 2015 | 5:43 pm
OzForex Research
Major Currency Pair Movements Last Week: EUR/USD - Extended its previous week’s gains. USD/JPY - Gained a fraction. GBP/USD - Extended its previous week’s gains. AUD/USD - Gained a fraction. USD/CAD - Extended its previous losses. NZD/USD - Reversed direction last week. Continue reading
Posted on 26 April 2015 | 7:57 pm
OzForex Research
Major Currency Pair Movements Last Week: EUR/USD - Gained ground last week. USD/JPY - Sold off. GBP/USD - Rallied last week. AUD/USD - Extended its gains. USD/CAD - Gave back its previous week’s gains. NZD/USD - Gained ground last week. Continue reading
Posted on 19 April 2015 | 8:33 pm
Agility Forex
USDCAD Overnight Range 1.2223-1.2323 The US dollar is Mr. Toad and it has been on a wild ride this morning. Another bout of weak US economic data (Jobless Claims rose, Housing Starts and Building Permits fell) revered hard won US dollar gains in Europe. USDCAD which had scraped back above 1.2310 prior to the data… Continue reading
Posted on 16 April 2015 | 6:30 pm
Agility Forex
The Loonie soared following the Bank of Canada slight shift to a more neutral stance supported by tweak of the language around inflation. It’s now “roughly balanced” rather than “more balanced” which in my opinion does not justify a 0.0125 point drop in USDCAD (From 1.2550 to 1.2425). That move was more a factor of… Continue reading
Posted on 15 April 2015 | 6:11 pm

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