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Tuesday, 01 September 2015 - Market Commentary
Daily currency news provided by UsForex

: EUR/USD is weaker having traded to the top of its recent range and come near the top of the long term down trend dating from its June 2011 high up at 1.48 . We expect this to be a heavy resistance zone and we may see some choppy moves around this 1.3250 – 1.3350 range. Relative interest rates have provided for recent strength in EUR, and are likely to provide for further support ahead of next week’s FOMC given the focus on the Fed’s forward guidance thresholds. The ECB meeting two days later on August 1st will be a key focus as market participants look to Draghi for his reaction to both the improving outlook for Europe (PMI’s) and the implications of the recent strengthening in Euro.
We expect a range today of 1.3240 to 1.3290
Charts : EUR/USD USD/EUR
: GBP/USD is weaker falling to near term support around 1.5370 – The pair has been trading in a narrow range all week, and we should see this move develop and give new direction coming into next week’s more data heavy calendar which will include on Thursday, the UK MPC minutes and interest rate decision, and on Friday the US non-farm payrolls numbers.
We expect a range today of 1.5330 to 1.5400
Charts : GBP/USD USD/GBP
: Overseas equity markets selling off overnight along with futures pointing to another downturn in North America left the USD mixed heading into our trading day. Oil remains in the $48 pbl area, following yesterday’s 8% gain included in a 3 day 27% rally. This is the largest rally observed in oil since 1990, when Iraq invaded Kuwait. Unfortunately for our Loonie the gains on the back of the oil move have disappeared this morning as poor equity performance leading to funds being parked on the sideline has favoured the USD. Canadian Q2 GDP has helped to offset this move with a reading of -0.5% when a -1.0% was anticipated. The largest contributor to the improvement was an increase in household spending. Still to come for today’s data docket is US ISM Manufacturing PMI at 10 AM.
We expect a range today of 1.3100 to 1.3200
Charts : USD/CAD CAD/USD
: USD/JPY has seen significant weakness today, falling back below the 100 level. The Yen strength was caused by market perception of a “stronger” than expected CPI number, coming in at 0.2% vs 0.1% expected and indicating an increase of inflation in line with the BOJ policies. However, looking at the various components which make up this number we can see that the core drivers of inflation have come from higher energy prices and higher food costs – indicating “bad” cost push inflation, instead of “good” demand pull inflation (via increasing wages). This is not a good sign for the long term health of Japanese companies or the economy.
We expect a range today of 98.00 to 98.60
Charts : USD/JPY JPY/USD
We expect a range today of 2.1480 – 2.1620
The US Dollar has gone from strength to strength over the past two sessions that is despite the fact Wall Street wrapped last night, recording its worst month since 2012. In the absence of any substantial data releases from the world’s largest economy, traders have continued to hold long US dollar positions in the hope rates will start to normalise as early as September after Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer over the weekend said US inflation would likely rebound as pressure from the dollar fades, allowing rates to be raised gradually. Moving away from the United States, the Euro has done well to advance in the context of a stronger Greenback, moving to highs of 1.1262 after estimates of core CPI all met expectation as did German retail sales numbers. Both of which proving to be Euro supportive the focus intraday today is likely to temporarily shift back to China ahead of a raft of PMI prints from the Eurozone this evening, prints which act as a leading indicator of economic health.
Data releases
Building Approvals m/m, Current Account, Cash Rate, RBA Rate Statement  
NZD: No data today
No data today
Charts : USD/EUR EUR/USD USD/JPY

BER Notebook - FX Market Research & Currency News/Views from our Partners See more >>

BER Team
Two charts that show the woe for emerging market currencies despite a pause in the devaluation of the renminbi, the cause of turmoil across global currencies. The implications — among them a more troubled Chinese economy than previously thought, deflationary strains in western countries and falling equity stocks — are being felt mostly by China’s… Continue reading
Posted on 24 August 2015 | 9:24 am
OzForex Research
Major Currency Pair Movements Last Week: EUR/USD - Extended its previous week’s gains. USD/JPY - Lost ground last week. GBP/USD - Extended its previous week’s gains. AUD/USD - Extended its previous week’s losses. USD/CAD - Gained ground last week. NZD/USD - Gained ground last week. Continue reading
Posted on 24 August 2015 | 9:15 am
BER Team
FX markets remain skittish a few hours after New York traders walked in. Oil prices are trading heavy, US stock futures are soft and there aren’t any US data releases to put a bridge over troubled waters. That should keep USDCAD pointing higher for the balance of the day. So much for a sleepy Monday… Continue reading
Posted on 24 August 2015 | 9:09 am
OzForex Research
Major Currency Pair Movements Last Week: EUR/USD - Gained ground last week. USD/JPY - Showed little change. GBP/USD - Gained last week. AUD/USD - Reversed direction last week. USD/CAD - Lost a fraction last week. NZD/USD - Reversed direction last week. Continue reading
Posted on 17 August 2015 | 5:59 am
BER Team
Central bank moves to ease uncertainty around currency on global markets after cutting exchange rate for three days running Continue reading
Posted on 14 August 2015 | 12:23 am

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