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Friday, 09 October 2015 - Market Commentary
Daily currency news provided by UsForex

: EUR/USD is weaker having traded to the top of its recent range and come near the top of the long term down trend dating from its June 2011 high up at 1.48 . We expect this to be a heavy resistance zone and we may see some choppy moves around this 1.3250 – 1.3350 range. Relative interest rates have provided for recent strength in EUR, and are likely to provide for further support ahead of next week’s FOMC given the focus on the Fed’s forward guidance thresholds. The ECB meeting two days later on August 1st will be a key focus as market participants look to Draghi for his reaction to both the improving outlook for Europe (PMI’s) and the implications of the recent strengthening in Euro.
We expect a range today of 1.3240 to 1.3290
: GBP/USD is weaker falling to near term support around 1.5370 – The pair has been trading in a narrow range all week, and we should see this move develop and give new direction coming into next week’s more data heavy calendar which will include on Thursday, the UK MPC minutes and interest rate decision, and on Friday the US non-farm payrolls numbers.
We expect a range today of 1.5330 to 1.5400
: Yesterday afternoon’s FOMC minutes proved to more Dovish than anticipated and questions all the market chatter that the September meeting was very close to producing an interest rate hike. The markets reacted by pushing out expected rate hikes further, bringing into question if we will see a hike before 2016. Overnight we observed added downward pressure on the Greenback while allowing commodities gained. Particularly WTI Oil breaking above $50 pbl. Our Loonie was able to touch levels we have not observed since late July (1.2900). Canadian Employment data was released at 8:30 AM and the headline figure beat expectations of +10K at +12.1K new jobs in the month of September. The unemployment rate moved the wrong direction, from 7.0 to 7.1, when analysts were anticipating a break below to 6.9%. This move was due to more participants looking for work. Moving beyond the headline the real story is the fact that full time jobs dropped by 62K and part time rose by 74K. Leaving us with the reality that the economy is not adding the type of jobs required. The USDCAD reaction was muted with an initial kneejerk reaction from 1.2935 to 1.2900 before settling back at 1.2948.
We expect a range today of 1.2900 to 1.3049
: USD/JPY has seen significant weakness today, falling back below the 100 level. The Yen strength was caused by market perception of a “stronger” than expected CPI number, coming in at 0.2% vs 0.1% expected and indicating an increase of inflation in line with the BOJ policies. However, looking at the various components which make up this number we can see that the core drivers of inflation have come from higher energy prices and higher food costs – indicating “bad” cost push inflation, instead of “good” demand pull inflation (via increasing wages). This is not a good sign for the long term health of Japanese companies or the economy.
We expect a range today of 98.00 to 98.60
Data releases:
IMF Meetings
Home Loans m/m
Employment Change, Unemployment Rate, BOC Business Outlook Survey
French Gov Budget Balance, French Industrial Production m/m, Italian Industrial Production m/m
Trade Balance, Construction Output m/m

BER Notebook - FX Market Research & Currency News/Views from our Partners See more >>

OzForex Research
Major Currency Pair Movements Last Week: EUR/USD - Extended its previous week’s gains. USD/JPY - Lost ground last week. GBP/USD - Extended its previous week’s gains. AUD/USD - Extended its previous week’s losses. USD/CAD - Gained ground last week. NZD/USD - Gained ground last week. Continue reading
Posted on 7 September 2015 | 8:01 am
BER Team
Two charts that show the woe for emerging market currencies despite a pause in the devaluation of the renminbi, the cause of turmoil across global currencies. The implications — among them a more troubled Chinese economy than previously thought, deflationary strains in western countries and falling equity stocks — are being felt mostly by China’s… Continue reading
Posted on 24 August 2015 | 9:24 am
OzForex Research
Major Currency Pair Movements Last Week: EUR/USD - Extended its previous week’s gains. USD/JPY - Lost ground last week. GBP/USD - Extended its previous week’s gains. AUD/USD - Extended its previous week’s losses. USD/CAD - Gained ground last week. NZD/USD - Gained ground last week. Continue reading
Posted on 24 August 2015 | 9:15 am
BER Team
FX markets remain skittish a few hours after New York traders walked in. Oil prices are trading heavy, US stock futures are soft and there aren’t any US data releases to put a bridge over troubled waters. That should keep USDCAD pointing higher for the balance of the day. So much for a sleepy Monday… Continue reading
Posted on 24 August 2015 | 9:09 am
OzForex Research
Major Currency Pair Movements Last Week: EUR/USD - Gained ground last week. USD/JPY - Showed little change. GBP/USD - Gained last week. AUD/USD - Reversed direction last week. USD/CAD - Lost a fraction last week. NZD/USD - Reversed direction last week. Continue reading
Posted on 17 August 2015 | 5:59 am

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