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Friday, 18 April 2014 - Market Commentary
Daily currency news provided by UsForex

: EUR/USD is weaker having traded to the top of its recent range and come near the top of the long term down trend dating from its June 2011 high up at 1.48 . We expect this to be a heavy resistance zone and we may see some choppy moves around this 1.3250 – 1.3350 range. Relative interest rates have provided for recent strength in EUR, and are likely to provide for further support ahead of next week’s FOMC given the focus on the Fed’s forward guidance thresholds. The ECB meeting two days later on August 1st will be a key focus as market participants look to Draghi for his reaction to both the improving outlook for Europe (PMI’s) and the implications of the recent strengthening in Euro.
We expect a range today of 1.3240 to 1.3290
Charts : EUR/USD USD/EUR
: GBP/USD is weaker falling to near term support around 1.5370 – The pair has been trading in a narrow range all week, and we should see this move develop and give new direction coming into next week’s more data heavy calendar which will include on Thursday, the UK MPC minutes and interest rate decision, and on Friday the US non-farm payrolls numbers.
We expect a range today of 1.5330 to 1.5400
Charts : GBP/USD USD/GBP
: The Loonie strengthened early in the session yesterday after a slightly higher printing of local inflation figures, with CPI rising to 1.5% for the year, helping to push USD/CAD to a low of 1.0985. The gains were short lived however as much better than expected US data in the form of Philadelphia Fed manufacturing data had the gains entirely reversed as we headed back over 1.1015. As the day wore on, and most investors began to break to the Easter long weekend, price movements subsided and there has been very little action since. We currently find the pair at 1.1010 and expect things to remain quiet until Tuesday next week.
We expect a range today of 1.0990 to 1.1015
Charts : USD/CAD CAD/USD
: USD/JPY has seen significant weakness today, falling back below the 100 level. The Yen strength was caused by market perception of a “stronger” than expected CPI number, coming in at 0.2% vs 0.1% expected and indicating an increase of inflation in line with the BOJ policies. However, looking at the various components which make up this number we can see that the core drivers of inflation have come from higher energy prices and higher food costs – indicating “bad” cost push inflation, instead of “good” demand pull inflation (via increasing wages). This is not a good sign for the long term health of Japanese companies or the economy.
We expect a range today of 98.00 to 98.60
Charts : USD/JPY JPY/USD
Wednesday was another quiet day for the Euro and the US dollar during Asian trade as the currency moved less than 12 points from open. Subdued trade was due to a heavy night session close by as investors waited cautiously for data releases out of the US and Europe.
The main news for the night was US Federal Reserve Janet Yellen’s indication that the time frame as to when interest rates may be lifted in the US will be extended. The rates will be left low as the economy is left to recover and economic indicators will be watched closely to ensure the interest rate adjustments are done at the correct time. 
The Euro’s gain on the US dollar was softened by Inflation data which did slow at the expected rate to 0.5 per cent however has now been below 1 per cent for half a year giving thought to the idea that more stimulus measures need to be put in place to help with the recovery in the Eurozone. Today the Euro opens marginally higher against the US dollar at 1.3815.
All eyes today will turn to the US as Unemployment claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing could give a further indication as to the time frame for further tapering on the US55 billion dollar a month asset purchase program.
Data releases:
Nab Quarterly Business Confidence, New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m

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