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Wednesday, 29 July 2015 - Market Commentary
Daily currency news provided by UsForex

: EUR/USD is weaker having traded to the top of its recent range and come near the top of the long term down trend dating from its June 2011 high up at 1.48 . We expect this to be a heavy resistance zone and we may see some choppy moves around this 1.3250 – 1.3350 range. Relative interest rates have provided for recent strength in EUR, and are likely to provide for further support ahead of next week’s FOMC given the focus on the Fed’s forward guidance thresholds. The ECB meeting two days later on August 1st will be a key focus as market participants look to Draghi for his reaction to both the improving outlook for Europe (PMI’s) and the implications of the recent strengthening in Euro.
We expect a range today of 1.3240 to 1.3290
Charts : EUR/USD USD/EUR
: GBP/USD is weaker falling to near term support around 1.5370 – The pair has been trading in a narrow range all week, and we should see this move develop and give new direction coming into next week’s more data heavy calendar which will include on Thursday, the UK MPC minutes and interest rate decision, and on Friday the US non-farm payrolls numbers.
We expect a range today of 1.5330 to 1.5400
Charts : GBP/USD USD/GBP
: North American session is off to a quiet start with no data out until 10am this morning when Pending Home Sales and Crude Oil inventories from the U.S is released. The focus today will be on the Federal Reserve’s policy statement at 14:00 ET. Investors will be looking for clues to determine when the Fed will raise rates in the U.S. and how aggressive the tightening cycle will be moving forward. We have seen some good data from the U.S. economy with a stable job market, inflation and GDP. Don’t forget we will have another round of this data prior to the Fed’s highly anticipated September meeting where the market has priced in a rate increase. As always, volatility is a major factor today after the statement.
We expect a range today of 1.2908 to 1.2977
Charts : USD/CAD CAD/USD
: USD/JPY has seen significant weakness today, falling back below the 100 level. The Yen strength was caused by market perception of a “stronger” than expected CPI number, coming in at 0.2% vs 0.1% expected and indicating an increase of inflation in line with the BOJ policies. However, looking at the various components which make up this number we can see that the core drivers of inflation have come from higher energy prices and higher food costs – indicating “bad” cost push inflation, instead of “good” demand pull inflation (via increasing wages). This is not a good sign for the long term health of Japanese companies or the economy.
We expect a range today of 98.00 to 98.60
Charts : USD/JPY JPY/USD
The Dollar Index, a measure of the Greenback against a basket of currencies rose overnight following an upbeat statement from the US Federal Reserve. Stating that the housing and labour markets have improved, evidence of slackness within the labour market have diminished as the economy moves towards a level of full employment. In a result which would support the Feds view, investors look towards this evenings advanced quarterly GDP print which is expected to reveal an economic expansion of 2.5 percent at an annualised rate. With the FOMC next scheduled to meet on September 16, the possibility of rate hike, remains intact, a view sufficient to support USD long positions for the time being.  Opening stronger across the board the US dollar is higher when valued against both the Yen (1.2395) and the Euro (1.0981).
Data releases
RBA Gov Stevens Speaks, Building Approvals m/m 
NZD: No data today    
No data today    
GBP: BOE Carney Speaks  
Charts : USD/EUR EUR/USD USD/JPY

BER Notebook - FX Market Research & Currency News/Views from our Partners See more >>

OzForex Research
Major Currency Pair Movements Last Week: EUR/USD - Reversed direction last week. USD/JPY - Lost a fraction. GBP/USD - Declined last week. AUD/USD - Continued its decline. USD/CAD - Extended its previous week’s gains. NZD/USD - Reversed direction, gaining ground last wee. Continue reading
Posted on 27 July 2015 | 1:26 am
BER Team
Overnight Range 1.3020-1.3103 USDCAD took off like a viral video when early New York/Toronto traders found their desks. One look at the overnight FX markets was enough for traders to pull the Loonie from the sidelines and put it in the game. USDCAD grabbed the ball and took off, streaking down field, touching 1.3103 from… Continue reading
Posted on 24 July 2015 | 1:49 am
OzForex Research
Major Currency Pair Movements Last Week: EUR/USD - Traded sharply lower last week. USD/JPY - Gained ground last week. GBP/USD - Gained ground last week. AUD/USD - Extended its previous week’s losses. USD/CAD - Continued its sharp rally. NZD/USD - Resumed its downtrend last week. Continue reading
Posted on 20 July 2015 | 2:29 am
Agility Forex
USDCAD Overnight Range 1.2307-1.2377 USDCAD popped higher in early New York trading when traders returning from their long weekend took note of WTI prices pushing through the 38.2% Fibonacci level of the March-June range ($54.44) and trading at $54.22.Wti has since bounced back to $54.60/bbl but the Loonie has ignored the move. Last week’s reports… Continue reading
Posted on 6 July 2015 | 2:21 am
OzForex Research
Major Currency Pair Movements Last Week: EUR/USD - Reversed direction. USD/JPY - Gained last week. GBP/USD - Reversed direction. AUD/USD - Reversed direction. USD/CAD - Gained a fraction. NZD/USD - Extended its previous week’s losses. Continue reading
Posted on 29 June 2015 | 1:41 pm

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