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Wednesday, 01 April 2015 - Market Commentary
Daily currency news provided by UsForex

: EUR/USD is weaker having traded to the top of its recent range and come near the top of the long term down trend dating from its June 2011 high up at 1.48 . We expect this to be a heavy resistance zone and we may see some choppy moves around this 1.3250 – 1.3350 range. Relative interest rates have provided for recent strength in EUR, and are likely to provide for further support ahead of next week’s FOMC given the focus on the Fed’s forward guidance thresholds. The ECB meeting two days later on August 1st will be a key focus as market participants look to Draghi for his reaction to both the improving outlook for Europe (PMI’s) and the implications of the recent strengthening in Euro.
We expect a range today of 1.3240 to 1.3290
Charts : EUR/USD USD/EUR
: GBP/USD is weaker falling to near term support around 1.5370 – The pair has been trading in a narrow range all week, and we should see this move develop and give new direction coming into next week’s more data heavy calendar which will include on Thursday, the UK MPC minutes and interest rate decision, and on Friday the US non-farm payrolls numbers.
We expect a range today of 1.5330 to 1.5400
Charts : GBP/USD USD/GBP
: ADP Employment data showed 189K new jobs in the month of March a significant miss from the forecasted 227K. On the back of this release the Greenback quickly gave up 0.25% across the board. This highlights how on edge the market is heading towards Friday’s NFP release that will come in the midst of very thin market conditions due to Easter weekend. Watch for some erratic swings if they are significantly off the 247K being called for by economists. Still to come today we have PMI data for the US, Crude Oil Inventories and two Fed members speaking (Williams and Lockhart). With no data for Canada the movement of oil will continue to be the main driver for the Loonie with the inventory data gaining added attention. K.W
We expect a range today of 1.2595 to 1.2710.
Charts : USD/CAD CAD/USD
: USD/JPY has seen significant weakness today, falling back below the 100 level. The Yen strength was caused by market perception of a “stronger” than expected CPI number, coming in at 0.2% vs 0.1% expected and indicating an increase of inflation in line with the BOJ policies. However, looking at the various components which make up this number we can see that the core drivers of inflation have come from higher energy prices and higher food costs – indicating “bad” cost push inflation, instead of “good” demand pull inflation (via increasing wages). This is not a good sign for the long term health of Japanese companies or the economy.
We expect a range today of 98.00 to 98.60
Charts : USD/JPY JPY/USD
The U.S Dollar relinquished gains made earlier in the week as softer than anticipated manufacturing and employment data dented expectations the Fed will bring forward its initial rate adjustment. ISM manufacturing PMI and ADP Non-Farm Employment Change reports both missed the mark printing below estimate and forcing investors to square positions leading into Fridays Non-Farm Payroll account. The Euro edged back above 1.0750 after improved French, German, Italian, Spanish and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI prints proffered signs the wider economy is beginning to turn. The Euro has seen a string of stronger data sets of late overshadowed by concerns surrounding Greek liquidity, a drag that continues to weigh on the 19 nation currency union. With no agreement on reforms reached thus far an 11th hour deal looks likely as the deadline for the next 240 billion Euro bailout tranche is fast approaching. Attentions now turn to US Trade balance and unemployment claims in the lead up to Friday’s NFP print while European markets will look to the ECB’s policy meeting minutes for direction into the Easter long weekend. Note thin liquidity throughout this period could prompt volatility should Friday’s non-farm payroll read miss the mark.
Data releases
MI Inflation Gauge m/m and Trade Balance
ANZ Commodity Prices m/m
10 Year Bond Auction and Monetary Base y/y
Construction PMI
Charts : USD/EUR EUR/USD USD/JPY

BER Notebook - FX Market Research & Currency News/Views from our Partners See more >>

Agility Forex
USDCAD climbed steadily higher overnight and during the early North American session. Falling oil prices are to blame. WTI dipped to $47.70 with expectations that an Iranian nuclear deal could lead to another million barrels per day of crude hitting the market as sanctions get removed. Anticipation of better than expected US data this week,… Continue reading
Posted on 30 March 2015 | 7:19 pm
OzForex Research
Major Currency Pair Movements Last Week: EUR/USD - Extended its previous week’s gains. USD/JPY - Continued selling off. GBP/USD - Declined last week. AUD/USD - Lost a fraction. USD/CAD - Gained a fraction. NZD/USD - Showed little change. Continue reading
Posted on 29 March 2015 | 9:13 pm
Agility Forex
The US dollar barely budged on the Q4 GDP report (2.2%) and is ending the week on a down note having lost ground across the G-10 spectrum. The debate is still raging as to whether the current bout of US dollar weakness is merely a correction of the massive oversold positioning or perhaps the start… Continue reading
Posted on 27 March 2015 | 6:50 pm
OzForex Research
Major Currency Movements Last Week: EUR/USD Reversed direction. USD/JPY Declined. GBP/USD Reversed direction. AUD/USD Reversed direction. USD/CAD Lost ground. NZD/USD Gained sharply. Continue reading
Posted on 23 March 2015 | 8:25 pm
Agility Forex
America’s influence is waning in the world, militarily, economically, and culturally. The global financial structure which has been in place for decades is unraveling and it will not end well for the United States’ currency and economy. This change is being driven by a desire of many nations with totalitarian capitalism to rid themselves of… Continue reading
Posted on 23 March 2015 | 8:19 pm

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