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Thursday, 23 October 2014 - Market Commentary
Daily currency news provided by UsForex

: EUR/USD is weaker having traded to the top of its recent range and come near the top of the long term down trend dating from its June 2011 high up at 1.48 . We expect this to be a heavy resistance zone and we may see some choppy moves around this 1.3250 – 1.3350 range. Relative interest rates have provided for recent strength in EUR, and are likely to provide for further support ahead of next week’s FOMC given the focus on the Fed’s forward guidance thresholds. The ECB meeting two days later on August 1st will be a key focus as market participants look to Draghi for his reaction to both the improving outlook for Europe (PMI’s) and the implications of the recent strengthening in Euro.
We expect a range today of 1.3240 to 1.3290
Charts : EUR/USD USD/EUR
: GBP/USD is weaker falling to near term support around 1.5370 – The pair has been trading in a narrow range all week, and we should see this move develop and give new direction coming into next week’s more data heavy calendar which will include on Thursday, the UK MPC minutes and interest rate decision, and on Friday the US non-farm payrolls numbers.
We expect a range today of 1.5330 to 1.5400
Charts : GBP/USD USD/GBP
: September US CPI showed a modest increase of 0.1% from -0.2% while Core was below expectations of 0.2% at 0.1%. Definitely no concern of inflationary pressure in these numbers especially if you consider that September only observed the beginning of the current drop in oil we have observed through October. As this is a key ingredient the FOMC is watching there will be no change to interest rate expectations sitting around August/September 2015. Canadian September Retail Sales missed economists forecast on both the headline and core at -0.3%. The lowest monthly figure we have observed since December 2013. USDCAD dropped from 1.1220 to 1.1280 on the back of this release staying within the current range yet taking away momentum that many were hoping would see CAD challenge the 1.12 level. BOC is on deck at 10:00 where no change is anticipated. Poloz’s press conference will be interesting considering the changing outlook for global growth and the drop in oil will be key points he will be questioned on for the Banks outlook. The tone will remain neutral with slight dovish undertones.
We expect a range today of 1.1190 to 1.1260
Charts : USD/CAD CAD/USD
: USD/JPY has seen significant weakness today, falling back below the 100 level. The Yen strength was caused by market perception of a “stronger” than expected CPI number, coming in at 0.2% vs 0.1% expected and indicating an increase of inflation in line with the BOJ policies. However, looking at the various components which make up this number we can see that the core drivers of inflation have come from higher energy prices and higher food costs – indicating “bad” cost push inflation, instead of “good” demand pull inflation (via increasing wages). This is not a good sign for the long term health of Japanese companies or the economy.
We expect a range today of 98.00 to 98.60
Charts : USD/JPY JPY/USD
The Greenback rallied to a one week high against the majority of it major currency peers on Wednesday as CPI reports showed an unexpected increase in the overall cost of living. The report helped ease concerns the world’s largest economy may be stagnating in the face of flat global growth and assisted in closing the gap between market and Federal Reserve rate expectations. In other news the Euro slid to a one week low as reports suggest 11 major Eurozone banks will fail this weekend’s stress tests thus increasing concerns surrounding the overall stability of the 18 nation bloc economy. Key manufacturing data due today is expected to show a contraction for the first time in over a year heaping more pressure on the ECB to increase stimulus measures. The contrasting economic outlooks and Central Bank policies leave the Euro ripe for another dramatic downward correction especially as current Euro shorts are spread relatively thin within the futures market. Attentions turn to Euro, French and German Manufacturing PMI this evening for further directional guidance.
Data releases
RBA Governor Stevens Speaks and NAB Quarterly Business Confidence
NZD CPI Q/Q
Flash Manufacturing PMI
GBP MPC Member Broadbent Speaks, Retails Sales, BBA Mortgage Approvals and CBI Industrial Order Expectations.
Charts : USD/EUR EUR/USD USD/JPY

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