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Thursday, 27 August 2015 - Market Commentary
Daily currency news provided by UsForex

: EUR/USD is weaker having traded to the top of its recent range and come near the top of the long term down trend dating from its June 2011 high up at 1.48 . We expect this to be a heavy resistance zone and we may see some choppy moves around this 1.3250 – 1.3350 range. Relative interest rates have provided for recent strength in EUR, and are likely to provide for further support ahead of next week’s FOMC given the focus on the Fed’s forward guidance thresholds. The ECB meeting two days later on August 1st will be a key focus as market participants look to Draghi for his reaction to both the improving outlook for Europe (PMI’s) and the implications of the recent strengthening in Euro.
We expect a range today of 1.3240 to 1.3290
Charts : EUR/USD USD/EUR
: GBP/USD is weaker falling to near term support around 1.5370 – The pair has been trading in a narrow range all week, and we should see this move develop and give new direction coming into next week’s more data heavy calendar which will include on Thursday, the UK MPC minutes and interest rate decision, and on Friday the US non-farm payrolls numbers.
We expect a range today of 1.5330 to 1.5400
Charts : GBP/USD USD/GBP
: This week’s events have complicated the interest rate picture for the Federal Reserve. Analysts are now even talking about an October rate hike versus September and even talks of the Fed easing policy again. With interest rate at zero that would mean a move back to quantitative easing. Regardless of what decisions are made this all spells volatility. Today''s fundamentals we have US annualized GDP posted a 3.7% above forecast, while q/q GDP also above at 2.1 % vs expectations of 1.9%. Weekly jobless claims from the U.S. fell 4k to 271k in claims registered. With no Canadian data out for the remainder of the week, we continue to monitor medium tier data from the U.S. with personal consumption expenditures and pending home sales both released to at 8:30am and 10:00am ET respectively. Today is the first day of three with the start of the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, which is sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City and has been held annually since 1978. The event calls upon important central bankers and finance ministers, market analysts, and academics from all around the world to discuss long-term trends and develop long-term outlooks on emerging future concerns. For interest sake this was the very platform which previous FED Chair Bernanke introduced Quantitative Easing for the U.S.
We expect a range today of 1.3215 to 1.3304
Charts : USD/CAD CAD/USD
: USD/JPY has seen significant weakness today, falling back below the 100 level. The Yen strength was caused by market perception of a “stronger” than expected CPI number, coming in at 0.2% vs 0.1% expected and indicating an increase of inflation in line with the BOJ policies. However, looking at the various components which make up this number we can see that the core drivers of inflation have come from higher energy prices and higher food costs – indicating “bad” cost push inflation, instead of “good” demand pull inflation (via increasing wages). This is not a good sign for the long term health of Japanese companies or the economy.
We expect a range today of 98.00 to 98.60
Charts : USD/JPY JPY/USD
We expect a range today of 2.1400 – 2.1580
US Stocks have continued to track higher during overnight trade, posting their biggest two day rally since 2009. Strongly assisted by a number of strong headline economic readings overnight, data showed US gross domestic product rose at an annualised pace of 3.7 percent, up 2.3 percent during the second quarter of this year. Whilst a separate report also showed the sale of previously owned homes climbed by 0.5 percent in July, weekly unemployment claims declined to a three month low. In a glowing endorsement for the world’s largest economy, last night’s data re-affirms the view that domestic growth is strong enough to withstand the Fed’s first interest rate hike since 2006. With the only real concern now surrounding the lack of domestic inflation as well as offshore weakness, a spike in volatility to levels similar to what was experienced earlier in the week also threaten to derail fed plans to lift rates. In a session favouring the world’s reserve currency the US dollar is stronger against the Japanese Yen (120.975) and the Euro (1.1249).
Data releases
No data today
NZD: No data today   
Household Spending y/y, Tokyo Core CPI y/y, retail sales y/y
Charts : USD/EUR EUR/USD USD/JPY

BER Notebook - FX Market Research & Currency News/Views from our Partners See more >>

BER Team
Two charts that show the woe for emerging market currencies despite a pause in the devaluation of the renminbi, the cause of turmoil across global currencies. The implications — among them a more troubled Chinese economy than previously thought, deflationary strains in western countries and falling equity stocks — are being felt mostly by China’s… Continue reading
Posted on 24 August 2015 | 9:24 am
OzForex Research
Major Currency Pair Movements Last Week: EUR/USD - Extended its previous week’s gains. USD/JPY - Lost ground last week. GBP/USD - Extended its previous week’s gains. AUD/USD - Extended its previous week’s losses. USD/CAD - Gained ground last week. NZD/USD - Gained ground last week. Continue reading
Posted on 24 August 2015 | 9:15 am
BER Team
FX markets remain skittish a few hours after New York traders walked in. Oil prices are trading heavy, US stock futures are soft and there aren’t any US data releases to put a bridge over troubled waters. That should keep USDCAD pointing higher for the balance of the day. So much for a sleepy Monday… Continue reading
Posted on 24 August 2015 | 9:09 am
OzForex Research
Major Currency Pair Movements Last Week: EUR/USD - Gained ground last week. USD/JPY - Showed little change. GBP/USD - Gained last week. AUD/USD - Reversed direction last week. USD/CAD - Lost a fraction last week. NZD/USD - Reversed direction last week. Continue reading
Posted on 17 August 2015 | 5:59 am
BER Team
Central bank moves to ease uncertainty around currency on global markets after cutting exchange rate for three days running Continue reading
Posted on 14 August 2015 | 12:23 am

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