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Thursday, 02 July 2015 - Market Commentary
Daily currency news provided by UsForex

: EUR/USD is weaker having traded to the top of its recent range and come near the top of the long term down trend dating from its June 2011 high up at 1.48 . We expect this to be a heavy resistance zone and we may see some choppy moves around this 1.3250 – 1.3350 range. Relative interest rates have provided for recent strength in EUR, and are likely to provide for further support ahead of next week’s FOMC given the focus on the Fed’s forward guidance thresholds. The ECB meeting two days later on August 1st will be a key focus as market participants look to Draghi for his reaction to both the improving outlook for Europe (PMI’s) and the implications of the recent strengthening in Euro.
We expect a range today of 1.3240 to 1.3290
Charts : EUR/USD USD/EUR
: GBP/USD is weaker falling to near term support around 1.5370 – The pair has been trading in a narrow range all week, and we should see this move develop and give new direction coming into next week’s more data heavy calendar which will include on Thursday, the UK MPC minutes and interest rate decision, and on Friday the US non-farm payrolls numbers.
We expect a range today of 1.5330 to 1.5400
Charts : GBP/USD USD/GBP
: The US posted a drop in June’s unemployment rate to 5.3%, but Non-farm payrolls printed worse than expected at 223K in June. The USD erased most of its earlier gains as it did make a 2.5 month high of 1.2633. As the FED has stated, labour metrics will be looked at very closely and weighted heavily when determining rate hike expectations and today’s data has just dampened that expectation. In Canada, Canadian Manufacturing PMI printed at 51.3. The USDCAD is currently trading at 1.2588.
We expect a range today of 1.2558 to 1.2633
Charts : USD/CAD CAD/USD
: USD/JPY has seen significant weakness today, falling back below the 100 level. The Yen strength was caused by market perception of a “stronger” than expected CPI number, coming in at 0.2% vs 0.1% expected and indicating an increase of inflation in line with the BOJ policies. However, looking at the various components which make up this number we can see that the core drivers of inflation have come from higher energy prices and higher food costs – indicating “bad” cost push inflation, instead of “good” demand pull inflation (via increasing wages). This is not a good sign for the long term health of Japanese companies or the economy.
We expect a range today of 98.00 to 98.60
Charts : USD/JPY JPY/USD
In a return to macroeconomic news the Greenback edged lower overnight as Employment data and Jobs growth failed to meet market expectations. June’s non-farm payroll report showed just 223,000 new jobs were added to the economy while the Labor Department revised down April and May’s prints by 60,000. Further compounding the sour outlook the labour force participation rate fell to its lowest level in 38 years as 430,000 employees dropped out of the labour pool. The step decline in labour force membership cancelled out a drop in overall unemployment extending the timeline of expectation for a Federal Reserve rate hike. Analysts now anticipate record low interest rates will remain unchanged through September with just 50% calling for a rate adjustment prior to Christmas. The euro edged higher on the back of US data weakness touching overnight highs of 1.1118 before investor’s squared positions leading into the Independence Day long weekend and Greek Referendum. Tsipras and Varoufakis found unlikely support from the IMF throughout Thursday as the global economies lender of last resort submitted an assessment suggesting Greece will require extensive monetary support and extended periods of debt relief if the economy is to rebuild and reduce its debt to GDP ratio. The relationship between Greece and its Creditors already stood on shaky ground but now it appears crack are forming amongst the Troika of lenders further muddying the waters and highlighting the problems ahead regardless of the result on Sunday. Attentions through Friday will be all but consumed by the ongoing credit crisis with significant market volatility expected on Monday.
Data releases:
AIG Services Index and Retail Sales m/m  
NZD: No Data
No Data   
GBP: Services PMI
Charts : USD/EUR EUR/USD USD/JPY

BER Notebook - FX Market Research & Currency News/Views from our Partners See more >>

OzForex Research
Major Currency Pair Movements Last Week: EUR/USD - Reversed direction. USD/JPY - Gained last week. GBP/USD - Reversed direction. AUD/USD - Reversed direction. USD/CAD - Gained a fraction. NZD/USD - Extended its previous week’s losses. Continue reading
Posted on 29 June 2015 | 1:41 pm
Agility Forex
USDCAD Overnight Range 1.2307-1.2377 The Greek PM cries referendum, the Eurozone Finance ministers cry no extension and Greek citizens just cry. News that the Greek government implemented capital controls and shuttered banks until July 7th spooked FX markets in early Asian trading. A bout of risk aversion in a thin market saw EURUSD plunge to… Continue reading
Posted on 29 June 2015 | 11:44 am
OzForex Research
Major Currency Pair Movements Last Week: EUR/USD - Extended its gains. USD/JPY - Extended its previous week’s losses. GBP/USD - Continued its rally last week. AUD/USD - Extended its previous week’s gains. USD/CAD - Continued its decline. NZD/USD - Continued selling off last week. Continue reading
Posted on 22 June 2015 | 1:53 pm
OzForex Research
Major Currency Pair Movements Last Week: EUR/USD - Extended its gains last week. USD/JPY - Reversed direction. GBP/USD - Gained ground. AUD/USD - Extended its previous week’s gains. USD/CAD - Extended its previous week’s losses. NZD/USD - Lost a fraction last week. Continue reading
Posted on 10 May 2015 | 7:17 pm
Agility Forex
USDCAD Overnight Range 1.2048-1.2142 The highly anticipated US (and Canadian) employment reports were greeted with a resounding “meh”. NFP was right on consensus and the unemployment rate is 5.4%. EURUSD rose and fell and is currently back to its pre-release level. The Canadian report was worse than expected, which was actually expected, shedding 19,700 jobs.… Continue reading
Posted on 8 May 2015 | 6:37 am

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