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Tuesday, 06 October 2015 - Market Commentary
Daily currency news provided by UsForex

: EUR/USD is weaker having traded to the top of its recent range and come near the top of the long term down trend dating from its June 2011 high up at 1.48 . We expect this to be a heavy resistance zone and we may see some choppy moves around this 1.3250 – 1.3350 range. Relative interest rates have provided for recent strength in EUR, and are likely to provide for further support ahead of next week’s FOMC given the focus on the Fed’s forward guidance thresholds. The ECB meeting two days later on August 1st will be a key focus as market participants look to Draghi for his reaction to both the improving outlook for Europe (PMI’s) and the implications of the recent strengthening in Euro.
We expect a range today of 1.3240 to 1.3290
: GBP/USD is weaker falling to near term support around 1.5370 – The pair has been trading in a narrow range all week, and we should see this move develop and give new direction coming into next week’s more data heavy calendar which will include on Thursday, the UK MPC minutes and interest rate decision, and on Friday the US non-farm payrolls numbers.
We expect a range today of 1.5330 to 1.5400
: The North American session will start today with both Trade Balance data out for Canada and the United States. Canadian Trade Balance (TB) was expected at -1.1B and the US TB expected at -47.6B, but the data headlined -2.5B and -48.3 respectively. The market continues to digest the poor data out of the US and has resulted both the UK and the US to continue kicking the can in regards to interest rate hikes down the road. The last indications are for the Bank of England to raise rate in 2017 and the Federal Reserve to hike in early 2016. It’s a wait and see game none the less, as FOMC member rhetoric has been on the bullish side to raise in late December. San Francisco President John Williams, a FOMC voting member this year, will be speaking today.
We expect a range today of 1.3059 to 1.3157
: USD/JPY has seen significant weakness today, falling back below the 100 level. The Yen strength was caused by market perception of a “stronger” than expected CPI number, coming in at 0.2% vs 0.1% expected and indicating an increase of inflation in line with the BOJ policies. However, looking at the various components which make up this number we can see that the core drivers of inflation have come from higher energy prices and higher food costs – indicating “bad” cost push inflation, instead of “good” demand pull inflation (via increasing wages). This is not a good sign for the long term health of Japanese companies or the economy.
We expect a range today of 98.00 to 98.60
The US Dollar edged lower against the majority of major currency counterparts as expectations surrounding the timing of a Federal Reserve rate hike are revised and the timeline extended. A widening in the Trade Deficit coupled with last week’s poor labour market data has forced investors to amend their expectations for rate adjustments with many now looking to March 2016. This extension has hurt the short term outlook for the Greenback as the expected investment inflows that would ordinarily accompany a rate hike have been repositioned and USD long bets revised. The Euro rallied through 1.1200 and 1.1250 through trade yesterday while the JPY struggled to break higher. The BoJ today enters its second day of monetary policy meetings and expectations the central bank will introduce further policy easing measures have capped gains. Attentions today turn to the Bank of Japan’s policy statement and press conference for direction and risk flows.  
Data releases:
AIG Construction Index
NZD: No Data
Monetary policy Statement and BoJ Press Conference.
GBP: Manufacturing Production m/m, Industrial Production m/m and NIESR GDP Estimates.

BER Notebook - FX Market Research & Currency News/Views from our Partners See more >>

OzForex Research
Major Currency Pair Movements Last Week: EUR/USD - Extended its previous week’s gains. USD/JPY - Lost ground last week. GBP/USD - Extended its previous week’s gains. AUD/USD - Extended its previous week’s losses. USD/CAD - Gained ground last week. NZD/USD - Gained ground last week. Continue reading
Posted on 7 September 2015 | 8:01 am
BER Team
Two charts that show the woe for emerging market currencies despite a pause in the devaluation of the renminbi, the cause of turmoil across global currencies. The implications — among them a more troubled Chinese economy than previously thought, deflationary strains in western countries and falling equity stocks — are being felt mostly by China’s… Continue reading
Posted on 24 August 2015 | 9:24 am
OzForex Research
Major Currency Pair Movements Last Week: EUR/USD - Extended its previous week’s gains. USD/JPY - Lost ground last week. GBP/USD - Extended its previous week’s gains. AUD/USD - Extended its previous week’s losses. USD/CAD - Gained ground last week. NZD/USD - Gained ground last week. Continue reading
Posted on 24 August 2015 | 9:15 am
BER Team
FX markets remain skittish a few hours after New York traders walked in. Oil prices are trading heavy, US stock futures are soft and there aren’t any US data releases to put a bridge over troubled waters. That should keep USDCAD pointing higher for the balance of the day. So much for a sleepy Monday… Continue reading
Posted on 24 August 2015 | 9:09 am
OzForex Research
Major Currency Pair Movements Last Week: EUR/USD - Gained ground last week. USD/JPY - Showed little change. GBP/USD - Gained last week. AUD/USD - Reversed direction last week. USD/CAD - Lost a fraction last week. NZD/USD - Reversed direction last week. Continue reading
Posted on 17 August 2015 | 5:59 am

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