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Thursday, 27 November 2014 - Market Commentary
Daily currency news provided by UsForex

: EUR/USD is weaker having traded to the top of its recent range and come near the top of the long term down trend dating from its June 2011 high up at 1.48 . We expect this to be a heavy resistance zone and we may see some choppy moves around this 1.3250 – 1.3350 range. Relative interest rates have provided for recent strength in EUR, and are likely to provide for further support ahead of next week’s FOMC given the focus on the Fed’s forward guidance thresholds. The ECB meeting two days later on August 1st will be a key focus as market participants look to Draghi for his reaction to both the improving outlook for Europe (PMI’s) and the implications of the recent strengthening in Euro.
We expect a range today of 1.3240 to 1.3290
Charts : EUR/USD USD/EUR
: GBP/USD is weaker falling to near term support around 1.5370 – The pair has been trading in a narrow range all week, and we should see this move develop and give new direction coming into next week’s more data heavy calendar which will include on Thursday, the UK MPC minutes and interest rate decision, and on Friday the US non-farm payrolls numbers.
We expect a range today of 1.5330 to 1.5400
Charts : GBP/USD USD/GBP
: With US Thanksgiving today North American markets will be quite thin once the European session ends, leaving us with the potential for some erratic movement on any surprises the rest of the day. The OPEC announcement regarding production will be at 10:00 AM EST today. Consensus has built over the last 48 hours that there will not be a cut as Saudi Arabia wishes to continue to test how low we can go in an attempt to pressure the Shale oil production coming on line in the US. The market reaction still could be a coin toss on this announcement as it is hard to know how priced in this is in energy markets. Without a doubt this should weigh on the Loonie, however the positive that could offset some of the pressure is oil sands producers confirming they can continue to be profitable at $40 to $60 pbl oil. Canadian current account data improved from -9.9B to -8.4B when the market anticipated a -10.3B reading, causing USDCAD to attempt a break of 1.1230 again.
We expect a range today of 1.1210 to 1.1300
Charts : USD/CAD CAD/USD
: USD/JPY has seen significant weakness today, falling back below the 100 level. The Yen strength was caused by market perception of a “stronger” than expected CPI number, coming in at 0.2% vs 0.1% expected and indicating an increase of inflation in line with the BOJ policies. However, looking at the various components which make up this number we can see that the core drivers of inflation have come from higher energy prices and higher food costs – indicating “bad” cost push inflation, instead of “good” demand pull inflation (via increasing wages). This is not a good sign for the long term health of Japanese companies or the economy.
We expect a range today of 98.00 to 98.60
Charts : USD/JPY JPY/USD
Once again the US economic indicators took centre stage last night overshadowing the minor European releases to give direction to the markets. The statistics surprised to the downside leading the Greenback to be sold off heavily across a basket of major currencies. Core durable goods orders were down nearly a percent while the labour department announced the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits increased to 313,000 from a previous number of 292,000 and forecast of 287,000. Personal spending and income were also lower than expected with Chicago PMI, and consumer sentiment similarly missing the mark. The icing on the cake was housing numbers showing pending home sales falling and new home sales increasing substantially less than anticipated. While the markets are envisaging an interest rate rise by the US in 2015 continuing mixed data from the US will need to steady otherwise the timetable will be continually pushed further and further back. The European markets will have their moment in the limelight tonight with German preliminary CPI the highlight.
Data releases: 
HIA New Home Sales m/m, Private Capital Expenditure q/q
Trade Balance
No Data
No Data
Charts : USD/EUR EUR/USD USD/JPY

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