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Monday, 21 July 2014 - Market Commentary
Daily currency news provided by UsForex

: EUR/USD is weaker having traded to the top of its recent range and come near the top of the long term down trend dating from its June 2011 high up at 1.48 . We expect this to be a heavy resistance zone and we may see some choppy moves around this 1.3250 – 1.3350 range. Relative interest rates have provided for recent strength in EUR, and are likely to provide for further support ahead of next week’s FOMC given the focus on the Fed’s forward guidance thresholds. The ECB meeting two days later on August 1st will be a key focus as market participants look to Draghi for his reaction to both the improving outlook for Europe (PMI’s) and the implications of the recent strengthening in Euro.
We expect a range today of 1.3240 to 1.3290
Charts : EUR/USD USD/EUR
: GBP/USD is weaker falling to near term support around 1.5370 – The pair has been trading in a narrow range all week, and we should see this move develop and give new direction coming into next week’s more data heavy calendar which will include on Thursday, the UK MPC minutes and interest rate decision, and on Friday the US non-farm payrolls numbers.
We expect a range today of 1.5330 to 1.5400
Charts : GBP/USD USD/GBP
: USDCAD continue to trade comfortably either side of 1.0750 with support at 1.0720 and resistance at 1.0780 holding firm for the time being. The positive domestic data for Canada continues to hold the pair from gravitating back to 1.1000. Until we have a hawkish tone from the Bank of Canada it will be difficult for our currency to pick up ground on domestic data. USD will pick up additional momentum against CAD as geopolitical tensions continue to rise. We have a thin data week for Canada with Retail Sales on Wednesday being the only release of note. As for the US we have CPI tomorrow; New Home Sales, Wednesday; Unemployment claims, Flash Manufacturing PMI and New Home Sales, Thursday; Durable Goods on Friday.
We expect a range today of 1.0720 to 1.0780
Charts : USD/CAD CAD/USD
: USD/JPY has seen significant weakness today, falling back below the 100 level. The Yen strength was caused by market perception of a “stronger” than expected CPI number, coming in at 0.2% vs 0.1% expected and indicating an increase of inflation in line with the BOJ policies. However, looking at the various components which make up this number we can see that the core drivers of inflation have come from higher energy prices and higher food costs – indicating “bad” cost push inflation, instead of “good” demand pull inflation (via increasing wages). This is not a good sign for the long term health of Japanese companies or the economy.
We expect a range today of 98.00 to 98.60
Charts : USD/JPY JPY/USD
The start to the week was stagnant in terms of market movement as investors had little information to guide them in regards to trade decisions. The main focus to begin the week was in line with the end of last week and concentrated on geopolitical events which saw the safe haven US dollar gain strength across the board. The world is still waiting on the events of Ukraine and the Middle East to unfold and investors are watching closely as these geopolitical events can influence the market dependant on their outcomes. The Euro’s minor economic data released overnight was shrugged off however the EUR continued to trend downwards on the idea the ECB will continue to take action to revitalise the economy. Today should see some life being brought back into the market even though there is no data out of Europe the US will print Core CPI and Existing home sales numbers to shape direction to begin the week.
Data releases:
RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks, RBA Gov Stevens Speaks
No Data
All Industries Activity m/m
Public Sector Net Borrowing, 10-y Bond Auction, CBI Industrial Order Expectations
Charts : USD/EUR EUR/USD USD/JPY

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