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Monday, 21 April 2014 - Market Commentary
Daily currency news provided by UsForex

: EUR/USD is weaker having traded to the top of its recent range and come near the top of the long term down trend dating from its June 2011 high up at 1.48 . We expect this to be a heavy resistance zone and we may see some choppy moves around this 1.3250 – 1.3350 range. Relative interest rates have provided for recent strength in EUR, and are likely to provide for further support ahead of next week’s FOMC given the focus on the Fed’s forward guidance thresholds. The ECB meeting two days later on August 1st will be a key focus as market participants look to Draghi for his reaction to both the improving outlook for Europe (PMI’s) and the implications of the recent strengthening in Euro.
We expect a range today of 1.3240 to 1.3290
Charts : EUR/USD USD/EUR
: GBP/USD is weaker falling to near term support around 1.5370 – The pair has been trading in a narrow range all week, and we should see this move develop and give new direction coming into next week’s more data heavy calendar which will include on Thursday, the UK MPC minutes and interest rate decision, and on Friday the US non-farm payrolls numbers.
We expect a range today of 1.5330 to 1.5400
Charts : GBP/USD USD/GBP
: A quiet session overnight as Australia, Hong Kong, European and UK markets are closed for Easter Monday. USD/CAD is flat in North American open and is likely to be a quiet session in North American trading as Government offices are closed in Canada and the focus in the US is on Patriot’s day and the Boston Marathon. We expect USD/CAD to continue trading range bound on either side of 1.1000 as improving data is met with a neutral central bank.
We expect a range today of 1.0990 to 1.1050
Charts : USD/CAD CAD/USD
: USD/JPY has seen significant weakness today, falling back below the 100 level. The Yen strength was caused by market perception of a “stronger” than expected CPI number, coming in at 0.2% vs 0.1% expected and indicating an increase of inflation in line with the BOJ policies. However, looking at the various components which make up this number we can see that the core drivers of inflation have come from higher energy prices and higher food costs – indicating “bad” cost push inflation, instead of “good” demand pull inflation (via increasing wages). This is not a good sign for the long term health of Japanese companies or the economy.
We expect a range today of 98.00 to 98.60
Charts : USD/JPY JPY/USD
The US Dollar showed signs of recovery against its European and Japanese counterparts last week as stronger data offered continued to support to Fed’s tapering program. A stronger than expected Philadelphia factory index and improved jobless claims were the catalysts needed to encourage investors to unwind safe haven holdings and support the Greenback. The Japanese Yen reversed recent gains and moved lower touching 10 day lows late Friday as the dollar moved back through 1.02 to highs above 1.0250. The Euro traded lower moving back toward 1.38 on the back of comments from ECB board member Yves Mersch.  Mersch joined ECB President Mario Draghi in calling for a lower Euro value claiming the high/inflated currency is hurting the Eurozone’s brittle resurgence and that sustained strength will likely lead to Central Bank action. With many market centres closed Monday for the extended Easter long weekend we expect little action today. Attentions this week will turn to key German and French Manufacturing numbers and US existing home sales and unemployment claims as the headline data sets driving direction.
Data releases
No Data  
NZD: No Data
Trade Balance
GBP: No Data  

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