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Thursday, 28 August 2014 - Market Commentary
Daily currency news provided by UsForex

: EUR/USD is weaker having traded to the top of its recent range and come near the top of the long term down trend dating from its June 2011 high up at 1.48 . We expect this to be a heavy resistance zone and we may see some choppy moves around this 1.3250 – 1.3350 range. Relative interest rates have provided for recent strength in EUR, and are likely to provide for further support ahead of next week’s FOMC given the focus on the Fed’s forward guidance thresholds. The ECB meeting two days later on August 1st will be a key focus as market participants look to Draghi for his reaction to both the improving outlook for Europe (PMI’s) and the implications of the recent strengthening in Euro.
We expect a range today of 1.3240 to 1.3290
Charts : EUR/USD USD/EUR
: GBP/USD is weaker falling to near term support around 1.5370 – The pair has been trading in a narrow range all week, and we should see this move develop and give new direction coming into next week’s more data heavy calendar which will include on Thursday, the UK MPC minutes and interest rate decision, and on Friday the US non-farm payrolls numbers.
We expect a range today of 1.5330 to 1.5400
Charts : GBP/USD USD/GBP
: CAD experienced the largest one day gain against the Greenback since 2012, (1.0960 to 1.0830) and has now settled at 1.0850. Support now sits around 1.0810 in the form of the 55 day moving average and the 50% Fibonacci of 1.0621 to 1.0998 range. US quarterly preliminary GDP surprisingly beat the anticipated reading of 3.9% at 4.2% while Weekly Unemployment claims dropped by 1,000 to 298K. Both healthy numbers yet apparently not enough to allow the USD to pick up some lost ground. Canada’s current account edged down slightly to 11.9 bln, reflecting a slight increase in deficit on trade and goods and services and highlighted a healthy appetite for Canadian corporate securities from the international community. As the market digests all of the above data there appears to be an appetite to challenge yesterday’s 1.0830 low.
We expect a range today of 1.0820 to 1.0895
Charts : USD/CAD CAD/USD
: USD/JPY has seen significant weakness today, falling back below the 100 level. The Yen strength was caused by market perception of a “stronger” than expected CPI number, coming in at 0.2% vs 0.1% expected and indicating an increase of inflation in line with the BOJ policies. However, looking at the various components which make up this number we can see that the core drivers of inflation have come from higher energy prices and higher food costs – indicating “bad” cost push inflation, instead of “good” demand pull inflation (via increasing wages). This is not a good sign for the long term health of Japanese companies or the economy.
We expect a range today of 98.00 to 98.60
Charts : USD/JPY JPY/USD
The US dollar has been sold overnight amid ongoing speculation The European Central Bank is prepared to enter the stimulus game as soon as September after figures overnight continued to point towards a stalling recovery. With data showing French Factory confidence fell to its lowest level in 13 months a measure of German consumer sentiment also missed its mark. Given the persistently weak data prints which continue spur rate talk, funds have been shifted out of US and European markets overnight with investors instead seeking higher returns elsewhere. Notably weaker against the Yen this morning at a rate of 103.854 the Euro has the major benefactor of a lower greenback stronger this morning at 1.3192. On the outlook this evening growth numbers from the United States may well proof critical in determining the US dollars next move.  
Data releases
Private Capital Expenditure q/q, HIA New Home Sales m/m
NZD: No data today
No data today
GBP: CBI Realized Sales
Charts : USD/EUR EUR/USD USD/JPY

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Bloomberg Television interview with Michael Ward, CEO, North America and Europe for USForex on getting the Best Exchange Rates when sending money abroad from the US plus his thoughts on what to look for when Buying Property Abroad and which global cities are popular right now. ⇒ watch video

Why is it that when I go into a currency vendor to send money I never get the rate on the news?

You may well think that you are being ripped off, but it is not always the case. In simple terms what you see on the news or in the paper or on yahoo finance is the Middle Rate or mid-rate. Some people want to buy a currency and some people want to sell a currency and there is a gap (or margin) between the price at which you buy and the price at which you sell. ⇒ read article

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BestExchangeRates in the PressSMH.com.au Money

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