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Wednesday, 22 October 2014 - Market Commentary
Daily currency news provided by UsForex

: EUR/USD is weaker having traded to the top of its recent range and come near the top of the long term down trend dating from its June 2011 high up at 1.48 . We expect this to be a heavy resistance zone and we may see some choppy moves around this 1.3250 – 1.3350 range. Relative interest rates have provided for recent strength in EUR, and are likely to provide for further support ahead of next week’s FOMC given the focus on the Fed’s forward guidance thresholds. The ECB meeting two days later on August 1st will be a key focus as market participants look to Draghi for his reaction to both the improving outlook for Europe (PMI’s) and the implications of the recent strengthening in Euro.
We expect a range today of 1.3240 to 1.3290
: GBP/USD is weaker falling to near term support around 1.5370 – The pair has been trading in a narrow range all week, and we should see this move develop and give new direction coming into next week’s more data heavy calendar which will include on Thursday, the UK MPC minutes and interest rate decision, and on Friday the US non-farm payrolls numbers.
We expect a range today of 1.5330 to 1.5400
: USDCAD has moved gradually from just below the 1.13 level when the Chinese data was released to where we are currently trading at 1.1225. The only North American data on deck today is US Existing Home Sales at 10:00 AM which are anticipated to rise 5.05M to 5.11M. With limited data and no Fed Speakers the markets focus will be shifting towards US CPI (Wed 8:30 AM) followed by BOC Monetary Policy Report (10:00 AM) and Poloz Press Conference (11:15). Headline CPI is expected to be flat as falling energy prices will keep it in check and the core should rise by 0.1% on the month. I anticipate there to be little change to the message for our Central Bank with inflation in control, employment difficult to read and other Central banks showing signs of pushing expectations for rate hikes further out into 2015 they will remain neutral.
We expect a range today of 1.1190 to 1.1260
: USD/JPY has seen significant weakness today, falling back below the 100 level. The Yen strength was caused by market perception of a “stronger” than expected CPI number, coming in at 0.2% vs 0.1% expected and indicating an increase of inflation in line with the BOJ policies. However, looking at the various components which make up this number we can see that the core drivers of inflation have come from higher energy prices and higher food costs – indicating “bad” cost push inflation, instead of “good” demand pull inflation (via increasing wages). This is not a good sign for the long term health of Japanese companies or the economy.
We expect a range today of 98.00 to 98.60
In the absence of any headline macro-economic data events major currency units maintained a relatively tight range throughout trade on Monday. The Greenback was forced marginally lower against higher yielding assets as expectations surrounding the timing of Federal Reserve rate hikes are revised outward. Expectations that the world’s largest central bank will raise interest rates in October 2015 have now fallen below 50% a dramatic reversal given 52% of futures traders estimated an adjustment in July as recently as October 3rd. The shift in Interest rate expectations comes on the back of a slowdown in global growth prospects and a dovish shift in Fed policy.
After a volatile week it seems markets have slipped into a quieter start to this trading week ahead of US inflation data and European Manufacturing numbers due Wednesday and Thursday. Markets will be seeking any signs of growth within the Eurozone after the European Central Bank announced it will now be covering bonds in a bid to keep deflation at bay as the German economy approaches recession with little to no growth forecast for the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2014. Attentions today turn to Chinese GDP reports with markets looking for any hint the world’s second largest economy can maintain current growth levels.
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Bloomberg Television interview with Michael Ward, CEO, North America and Europe for USForex on getting the Best Exchange Rates when sending money abroad from the US plus his thoughts on what to look for when Buying Property Abroad and which global cities are popular right now. ⇒ watch video

Why is it that when I go into a currency vendor to send money I never get the rate on the news?

You may well think that you are being ripped off, but it is not always the case. In simple terms what you see on the news or in the paper or on yahoo finance is the Middle Rate or mid-rate. Some people want to buy a currency and some people want to sell a currency and there is a gap (or margin) between the price at which you buy and the price at which you sell. ⇒ read article

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There are a number of cost components to making and receiving international payments, most of which are far from transparent to customers: Currency fees, Transit fees, Correspondent bank fees etc ⇒ read article

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