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Friday, 25 July 2014 - Market Commentary
Daily currency news provided by UsForex

: EUR/USD is weaker having traded to the top of its recent range and come near the top of the long term down trend dating from its June 2011 high up at 1.48 . We expect this to be a heavy resistance zone and we may see some choppy moves around this 1.3250 – 1.3350 range. Relative interest rates have provided for recent strength in EUR, and are likely to provide for further support ahead of next week’s FOMC given the focus on the Fed’s forward guidance thresholds. The ECB meeting two days later on August 1st will be a key focus as market participants look to Draghi for his reaction to both the improving outlook for Europe (PMI’s) and the implications of the recent strengthening in Euro.
We expect a range today of 1.3240 to 1.3290
Charts : EUR/USD USD/EUR
: GBP/USD is weaker falling to near term support around 1.5370 – The pair has been trading in a narrow range all week, and we should see this move develop and give new direction coming into next week’s more data heavy calendar which will include on Thursday, the UK MPC minutes and interest rate decision, and on Friday the US non-farm payrolls numbers.
We expect a range today of 1.5330 to 1.5400
Charts : GBP/USD USD/GBP
: US Durable goods had a positive tone with the Headline figure moving from -0.97 to 0.7% while the Core moved from 0.0 to 0.8%. Both number are well above the consensus and will aid in continuing to support the Greenback heading into the weekend. USDCAD continues to hover in its 1.0710 to 1.0790 range we have observed over the last ten trading sessions. The market appears comfortable in the higher end of this range through our NA trading day and any test and break to the topside could lead to a significant jump for the USD. We have observed global momentum favouring USD gradually picking up through the month of July and positive Canadian domestic data will not be enough to keep the Loonie supported at current levels.
We expect a range today of 1.0720 to 1.0760
Charts : USD/CAD CAD/USD
: USD/JPY has seen significant weakness today, falling back below the 100 level. The Yen strength was caused by market perception of a “stronger” than expected CPI number, coming in at 0.2% vs 0.1% expected and indicating an increase of inflation in line with the BOJ policies. However, looking at the various components which make up this number we can see that the core drivers of inflation have come from higher energy prices and higher food costs – indicating “bad” cost push inflation, instead of “good” demand pull inflation (via increasing wages). This is not a good sign for the long term health of Japanese companies or the economy.
We expect a range today of 98.00 to 98.60
Charts : USD/JPY JPY/USD
The Euro has fallen to eight month lows against its US counterpart as Friday saw a decline in German business climate data. Increasing tensions between Russia and the West amid concerns Europe’s largest economy is running out of puff are beginning to hurt investor confidence and the 18 nation bloc unit continues to flounder  below1.35 swapping hands at 1.3427 this morning. The Greenback rallied on stronger labour market data and an increased demand for treasury yields, a suggestion that market demand for risk may be wanning as investors look to hedge positions with safe haven assets. Attentions now turn to a busy economic calendar with pending home sales; prelim and final non-farm payroll numbers, the unemployment rate and an FOMC statement all governing US direction while German and Eurozone CPI and key manufacturing data will direct Euro trading.
Data releases
No Data
NZD: No Data
No Data
GBP: No Data
Charts : USD/EUR EUR/USD USD/JPY

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